2019 2023

Costos fijos produccion 20,267,051 22,459,475

Gastos generales fijos 4,965,956 474,197
Total 25233007 22933672

Costos fijos produccion

Año 2019 2023
Mano obra operación y supervision 5,985,044 6,756,560
Mantenimiento y reparacion 3,230,702 3,784,874
Suministros de operación 484,605 567,731
Impuesto sobre la propiedad 923,058 1,081,392
Seguros de planta 1,846,115 2,162,785
Depreciacion y amortizacion 5,403,509 5,403,509
Costos fijos de operación 2,394,018 2,702,624
total 25,233,007

Costos variables de produccion

Año 2019 2023
Materia prima e insumos 26,360,270 29,665,847
Servicios auxiliares 701,182 757,503

2019 2023
Costos fijos totales (CFT) 25,233,007 22,933,672
Precio de venta unitario (PVU) 83 93
Costos variables unitarios (CVU) 34 35
PVU-CVU 49 58

𝑃𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑜= 𝐶𝐹𝑇/(𝑃𝑉𝑈−𝐶𝑉𝑈)

Punto de equilibrio
2019 2023 2028
515,030 395,724 345,231

Para el año 2019

Produccion Precio de Venta Unitario ($) Ingresos por Venta ($)
0 83 0
515,030 83 42,526,060
1,480,000 83 122,203,600

Para el año 2023

Produccion Precio de Venta Unitario ($) Ingresos por Venta ($)
0 93 0
395,724 93 36,834,017
1,628,962 93 151,623,783
 Para el año 2028
Produccion Precio de Venta Unitario ($) Ingresos por Venta ($)
0 109 0
345,231 109 37,533,517
1,850,000 109 201,132,000

Ingresos vs
Egresos 2028 Ingresos Egresos

250,000,000

200,000,000

150,000,000
$

100,000,000

50,000,000

0
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
Volumen Produccion (paquetes pan)
 2028
25,975,239
0
25975239

2028
7,720,954
4,863,826
729,574
1,389,665
2,779,329
5,403,509
3,088,382

2028
34,460,185
908,375

2028
25,975,239
109
33
75

Año Produccion
2,019 1,480,000
2,023 1,628,962
2,028 1,850,000

o 2019
Costos Fijos Totales ($) Costos Variables Totales ($) Egresos ($)
25,233,007 0 25,233,007
25,233,007 17,293,053 42,526,060
25,233,007 49,693,607 74,926,614

o 2023
Costos Fijos Totales ($) Costos Variables Totales ($) Egresos ($)
22,933,672 0 22,933,672
22,933,672 13,900,345 36,834,017
22,933,672 57,219,469 80,153,141
o 2028
Costos Fijos Totales ($) Costos Variables Totales ($) Egresos ($)
25,975,239 0 25,975,239
25,975,239 11,558,278 37,533,517
25,975,239 61,937,696 87,912,935
 2019 2023 2028
Costos variables produccion 27,061,452 30,423,350 35,368,560
Gastos generales variables 22,632,155 26,796,119 26,569,136
Total 49,693,607 57,219,469 61,937,696

Gastos generales fijos

Año 2,019 2,023 2,028
Gastos financieros 4,965,956 474,197 0

Gastos generales variables

Año 2,019 2,023 2,028
Gastos administrativos 7,943,063 9,855,233 13,073,500
Gastos por comercializacion 7,099,063 7,932,424 9,201,570
Gastos por investigacion y desarrollo 4,277,034 5,306,664 7.039,577
Gastos por imprevistos 3,312,995 3,701,798 4,294,066

Volumen de produccion Paquetes de pan Precio venta unitario (PVU)

2,019 1,480,000 2,019
2,023 1,628,962 2,023
2,028 1,850,000 2,028

Ingresos por ventas Egresos

122,203,600 74,926,614
151,623,783 80,153,141
201,132,000 87,912,935

Ingresos vs
Egresos 2019 Ingresos Egresos

140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
$

40,000,000
20,000,000
0
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
Volumen Produccion (paquetes pan)
 20,000,000
0
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
Volumen Produccion (paquetes pan)

Ingresos vs
Egresos 2023 Ingresos Egresos

160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
$

60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
-300,000 200,000 700,000 1,200,000 1,700,000
Volumen Produccion (paquetes pan)
Precio venta unitario (PVU)
83
93
109
 Estado Proforma de resultados
Concepto 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Ingreso x ventas 122,200,963 129,647,113 134,758,332 140,071,055 151,618,962
Costo de produccion 47,328,503 48,649,197 50,012,205 51,421,835 52,882,825
Utilidad bruta 74,872,460 80,997,916 84,746,127 88,649,220 98,736,137
Gastos generales 27,598,323 27,368,543 26,914,579 26,669,546 27,270,315
Utilidad de operación 47,274,137 53,629,373 57,831,548 61,979,674 71,465,822
Productos financieros 80,944 82,563 84,214 85,899 87,617
Utilidad antes de impuestos 47,193,193 53,546,810 57,747,334 61,893,775 71,378,205
ISR 14,157,958 16,064,043 17,324,200 18,568,133 21,413,462
PTU 4,719,319 5,354,681 5,774,733 6,189,378 7,137,821
Utilidad neta 28,315,916 32,128,086 34,648,400 37,136,265 42,826,923

ISR 30%
PTU 10%

Año Ingresos por Productos Fondo de Capital de Costos de

Ventas ($) Financieros Depreciación Trabajo ($) Producción
($) y ($)
Amortización
($)

2019 122,200,963 80,944 5,403,509 400,814 47,328,503

2020 129,647,113 82,563 5,403,509 407,224 48,649,197
2021 134,758,332 84,214 5,403,509 414,739 50,012,205
2022 140,071,055 85,899 5,403,509 425,903 51,421,835
2023 151,618,962 87,617 5,403,509 361,688 52,882,825
2024 160,187,860 89,369 5,403,509 - 54,273,391
2025 165,922,585 91,156 5,403,509 190,853 55,107,989
2026 174,754,312 92,980 5,403,509 773,601 56,293,803
2027 186,978,726 94,839 5,403,509 1,199,076 58,474,003
2028 201,130,772 96,736 5,403,509 - 61,343,800
 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
160,187,860 165,922,585 174,754,312 186,978,726 201,130,772
54,273,391 55,107,989 56,293,803 58,474,003 61,343,800
105,914,469 110,814,596 118,460,509 128,504,723 139,786,972
27,958,932 28,716,016 29,860,068 31,562,153 33,608,713
77,955,537 82,098,580 88,600,441 96,942,570 106,178,259
89,369 91,156 92,980 94,839 96,736
77,866,168 82,007,424 88,507,461 96,847,731 106,081,523
23,359,850 24,602,227 26,552,238 29,054,319 31,824,457
7,786,617 8,200,742 8,850,746 9,684,773 10,608,152
46,719,701 49,204,454 53,104,477 58,108,639 63,648,914

Gastos Pagos a
Generales ($) Capital ($)

27,598,323 9,860,942
27,368,543 9,860,942
26,914,579 9,860,942
26,669,546 6,339,177
27,270,315 6,339,177
27,958,932 -
28,716,016 -
29,860,068 -
31,562,153 -
33,608,713 -
 Estado Proforma de origen y aplicación de rec
Conceptos 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ingresos por ventas 122,200,963 129,647,113 134,758,332 140,071,055
Productos financieros 80,944 82,563 84,214 85,899
Aportacion socios 63,391,768 0 0 0 0
Origenes Creditos bancarios 42,261,179 0 0 0 0
Valor rescate 0 0 0 0 0
Fondo depreciacion y
amortizacion 0 5,403,509 5,403,509 5,403,509 5,403,509
Total 105,652,947 127,685,416 135,133,185 140,246,055 145,560,463
Inversion fija 89,031,088 0 0 0 0
Capital trabajo 16,621,859 400,814 407,224 414,739 425,903
Costos produccion 0 47,328,503 48,649,197 50,012,205 51,421,835
Gastos generales 0 27,598,323 27,368,543 26,914,579 26,669,546
Aplicaciones
ISR 0 14,157,958 16,064,043 17,324,200 18,568,133
PTU 0 4,719,319 5,354,681 5,774,733 6,189,378
Pago a capital 0 9,860,942 9,860,942 9,860,942 6,339,177
Total 105,652,947 104,065,859 107,704,630 110,301,399 109,613,971
Saldo 0 23,619,557 27,428,555 29,944,656 35,946,492
origen y aplicación de recursos
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
151,618,962 160,187,860 165,922,585 174,754,312 186,978,726 201,130,772 0
87,617 89,369 91,156 92,980 94,839 96,736 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 42,358,177

5,403,509 5,403,509 5,403,509 5,403,509 5,403,509 5,403,509 0

157,110,088 165,680,738 171,417,250 180,250,801 192,477,074 206,631,017 42,358,177
0 0 760,000 0 0 0 0
425,903 0 190,853 773,601 1,199,076 0 0
52,882,825 54,273,391 55,107,989 56,293,803 58,474,003 61,343,800 0
27,270,315 27,958,932 28,716,016 29,860,068 31,562,153 33,608,713 0
21,413,462 23,359,850 24,602,227 26,552,238 29,054,319 31,824,457 0
7,137,821 7,786,617 8,200,742 8,850,746 9,684,773 10,608,152 0
6,339,177 0 0 0 0 0 0
115,469,502 113,378,790 117,577,828 122,330,456 129,974,324 137,385,122 0
41,640,586 52,301,948 53,839,422 57,920,345 62,502,750 69,245,895 42,358,177
Año Ingresos por Ventas ($) Productos Financieros ($)
2019 122,200,963 80,944
2020 129,647,113 82,563
2021 134,758,332 84,214
2022 140,071,055 85,899
2023 151,618,962 87,617
2024 160,187,860 89,369

2025 165,922,585 91,156

2026 174,754,312 92,980
2027 186,978,726 94,839
2028 201,130,772 96,736

Aportacion socios 63,391,768

Aportacion bancos 42,261,179
Valor rescate 42,358,177
Inversion fija 89,031,088
Capital de trabajo 16,621,859
2025 reinversion 760,000
 Fondo de Depreciación y Amortización ($) Capital de Trabajo ($) Costos de Producción ($)
5,403,509 400,814 47,328,503
5,403,509 407,224 48,649,197
5,403,509 414,739 50,012,205
5,403,509 425,903 51,421,835
5,403,509 361,688 52,882,825
5,403,509 - 54,273,391

5,403,509 190,853 55,107,989

5,403,509 773,601 56,293,803
5,403,509 1,199,076 58,474,003
5,403,509 - 61,343,800
Gastos Generales ($) Pagos a Capital ($)
27,598,323 9,860,942
27,368,543 9,860,942
26,914,579 9,860,942
26,669,546 6,339,177
27,270,315 6,339,177
27,958,932 -

28,716,016 -
29,860,068 -
31,562,153 -
33,608,713 -
 tmarf 22%
% ganancia 11%
%inflacion 4% Valor futuro
% riesgo 7%

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒(𝑃)=𝐹/(( 〖 1+𝑖) 〗 ^𝑛 )

tmarf

Flujo Neto de Efectivo

AÑOS
conceptos
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FNE -$63,391,768 $23,619,557 $27,428,555 $29,944,656 $35,946,492 $41,640,586
FNED -$63,391,768 $19,360,292 $18,428,215 $16,490,729 $16,226,214 $15,406,986
FNEDA -$63,391,768 -$44,031,476 -$25,603,261 -$9,112,532 $7,113,682 $22,520,667
APCEI 0 31% 29% 26% 26% 24%
APCEIA 31% 60% 86% 111% 136%

K= 6
PCEI 6.419784317 AÑOS

PCEI 3.58 años

K= 6
 FNE Flujo Neto de Efectivo
FNED Flujo Neto de Efectivo Descontado
FNEDA Flujo Neto de Efectivo Descontado Acumulado
Formulas:
FNED=FNE/(1+TMARF)^n
APCEI=FNED(año de operación)/FNED (año 0)
PCEI=(K-1)+(FNEDA"(K-1)"/FNED"(K)")

o de Efectivo
AÑOS
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
$52,301,948 $53,839,422 $57,920,345 $62,502,750 $69,245,895 $42,358,177
$15,862,034 $13,383,866 $11,801,915 $10,439,042 $9,479,725 $4,753,124
$38,382,701 $51,766,567 $63,568,483 $74,007,525 $83,487,249 $88,240,373 VPN
25% 21% 19% 16% 15% 7%
161% 182% 200% 217% 232% 239%