Test you crypto market intuition for pumps and dumps on real data!
In this game, players are tasked with predicting the color of the next block in a sequence based on historical financial data from crypto tradeing. The blocks represent actual future returns of a real asset:
- Black represents negative returns (losses), it's a Dump.
- Silver represents insignificant returns (no significant change).
- Golden represents large returns (gains), it's a Pump.
How to Play:
- Start the Game: Click the "Start!" button to fetch a sequence of historical return data.
- View the Sequence: The game displays 12 colored blocks representing the previous returns.
- Make Your Prediction: After viewing the blocks, you must guess the color of the next block in the sequence (Black, Silver, or Golden).
- Feedback: If your guess is correct, your capital (score) increases. If incorrect, your capital decreases.
- Correct guesses for Golden returns result in a 20% profit.
- Correct guesses for Silver returns result in a 5% profit.
- No reward is given for guessing Black correctly, as it represents negative returns.
- Incorrect guesses result in a penalty based on the actual return.
- Switch Assets: By pressing Start again, you can always switch to a different asset, which also uses real historical data. Your score remains the same, but you will see a different sequence. Maybe the new sequence is more promising and you can make better guesses?
- Continue: The game loads the next sequence, and you continue guessing.
- Goal: The goal is to predict the color of the next block correctly as many times as possible to maximize your capital!
This repository is for the code for Stage 1 MVP (early demo) of a gamified platform designed to test and refine traders' intuition in financial predictions, using financial data provided by AI hedgefund.
The Intuitive Trader Game presents a novel approach to financial prediction: players predict market returns in the form of a card game, where each card corresponds to a potential return (high, insignificant, or negative). The goal is to investigate whether human intuition, when structured through gamification, can become a reliable tool for financial forecasting. If we gather enough data, we aim at benchmarking intuitive predictions at Numer.ai Crypto Contest.
In this Stage 1 MVP, we will focus on gathering initial data to assess whether any players can outperform random guessing, and whether patterns of consistent success can emerge.
Guessing tarot cards sequence staged as an abstraction of real world trading.
Read the White paper Gamification of Financial Prediction: A Crowd-Sourced Experiment in Intuition
The idea behind the project is to:
- Gamify Financial Prediction: Participants are presented with sequences of obfuscated, abstracted historical market data and are asked to predict future returns by choosing the next "block" in a shuffled deck of several possible outcomes (targets).
- Test Intuition-Based Predictions: The game encourages intuitive decision-making (System 1 thinking) rather than analytical models or knowledge-based decisions.
- Data-Driven Validation: The predictions of successful players are aggregated and evaluated against machine learning models in financial modeling competitions like Numer.ai.
- Stage 1 MVP Goal: The first phase focuses on testing whether we can identify players who consistently perform above random chance, signaling that their intuition might have predictive value.
by participating in the game: early Demo is live!
✨ Please, star this repo, if you like the idea, if intrested in future colaboration and if you want to receive airdrops if the project grows ✨