Commodity Price Level and Price Volatility

Commodity prices are ever changing, due to continuously shifting market information. Both the price level and amount of volatility change over time. Looking at futures prices can immediately inform us of the current price level , and yes it is up - way up since just last year. It takes a few more calculations to determine the level of price volatility. In this short article I look at the corn market to analyze the relationship between overall price levels and price volatility; I also compare the current relationship to past situations. Identifying the level of price volatility or risk in the corn market coupled with current price levels can assist producers in making marketing decisions. High prices with low volatility could be taken as a sign that prices may not move much over the next few months. High prices with high volatility could be taken as an indicator of more future price swings. Producers wanting to sell grain in periods of high volatility must be prepared to pull the trigger when price expectations are met. In this analysis I use weekly averages of corn prices in the Illinois cash market from the 1992/93 crop-year to the 2010/11 crop-year. While using weekly averages hides the day-to-day variation it does show variation between weeks. Yearly averages are computed by taking the average of weekly prices. Price volatility is analyzed using the standard deviation. The standard deviation measures the amount of variability around the average. A higher standard deviation implies more variability and consequently more risk. The opposite is true of a lower standard deviation. Ideally, price averages are high and the standard deviation of price (volatility) is low. If we graphically portray the price average and volatility each year, values in the upper left hand zone are preferred (high price with low volatility) (Table 1). Points further to the right represent years that show higher volatility, while observations higher on the vertical-axis correspond to higher prices. Three crop years, 2006/07, 2008/09, and 2009/10 saw higher price averages and lower standard deviations. Conversely, in no years were price averages low and standard deviations high. In the most recent five crop-years, three have seen higher-than-normal average price and low standard deviations, while the other two saw higher average prices and record high standard deviations. Notably, the most recent crop year, 2010/11 has had a record high average price and second largest standard deviation. Producers should consider this information in developing their 2011/12 marketing plan. In times of high volatility the producer needs to be ready to pull the trigger when prices hit pre-determined goals because they may not stay there long. Prices could very well go higher than expectations and this can be handled by selling in smaller percentages, not being over-run with emotion from selling at lower prices when prices keep rising, and ready to make additional sales as prices rise. Higher volatility implies higher highs and lower lows. Producers need an exit plan to handle lower prices. This can be addressed by using decision dates in making sales. If your price expectation is not met by a certain date you make the sale at the current cash price.

Figure 1. Price per Bushel vs. Standard Deviation for Corn Price from 1992/93 to 2010/11.

2011 Corn Hybrid Trials

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The 2011 Kentucky Corn Hybrid Performance Test is now available online. The test is also linked at the Corn Testing Website. The multiple location average is the best overall indicator for hybrid performance for next season. Look at hybrids that performed near the top (with one least significant difference of the top-yielding hybrid). Hybrids from several companies and hybrids containing several genetic packages did well. Compare the university data to other hybrid tests from independent sources.

The 2011 Corn for Silage Performance Test is also available. This test reports hybrid performance (forage yield and forage quality) for two locations. Again, the multiple location average is the best indicator for hybrid performance for next season.

Late Planting but Early Harvest

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Farmers in Kentucky completed corn harvest and had about 95% of the soybeans harvested according to the October 31 USDA Crop Progress Report. While harvest this year seemed late, especially with a late planting schedule, both corn and soybean harvests are ahead of schedule. The five-year averages are 91% and 69% for corn and soybeans, respectively. (University research plots were not included into these numbers!)

The Midwestern states of Illinois, Iowa and Indiana are above 92% harvested for corn and above 97% harvested for soybean. Ohio is not as far along with 89% corn and 96% soybean harvested. Like Kentucky, all of these states are ahead of schedule for harvest.

Yields from the combine have been all over the board. One farmer said that he harvested his best corn ever and his worst corn ever... in the same field. Over the next few weeks, we will get a much better picture of how harvest finished. The overall shorter growing season would imply yields below trend, but the most recent estimates for yield were increased some. 

2011 Corn Hybrid Trials, Preliminary Report

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The 2011 Preliminary Results for the Corn Hybrid Trials are available here. The trials include tables for Early, Medium, Late and White hybrids. There are annual, 2-year and three-year summaries for most tests. Be sure to only compare one hybrid to another in a single test.

The final report will be coming soon and will be posted to the Corn Hybrid Testing website.

2011 Wheat Yield Contest Winners

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The 2011 Kentucky Extension Wheat Yield Contest winners are reported below. The top overall yield was 112.07 bushels per acre reported by Double P Farms in Todd County. The top no-till yield was 107.53 bushels per acre submitted by Duncan Gillum.

Fall 2011 Wheat Planting Decision

Greg Halich, Extension Economist, University of Kentucky     

(Edited 10/04/11)

Kentucky grain farmers in some parts of the state have been harvesting corn for a few weeks now and they will soon need to decide how much wheat to plant this fall.  In Kentucky, wheat is almost always planted in the fall following harvest on corn ground, and then double-cropped with soybeans in early summer after the wheat harvest.  This allows for two crops in one year.  However, soybeans planted after the wheat harvest are more susceptible to summer drought, so on average, yields are lower for these double-cropped soybeans.  In Kentucky, this yield reduction typically averages around 20%, but in many years there will be no yield difference due to weather.

Simazat Fall Applications and Atrazine Stewardship

Jim Martin, J.D. Green, and Bill Witt, Weed Specialists, University of Kentucky

On July 14, 2011 the EPA approved a supplemental label for using of Simazat (a premix of atrazine and simazine) for fall applications to control winter-annual broadleaf weeds prior to next year’s corn crop. The recently approved label is the only one that allows the use of atrazine in the fall in Kentucky. A lot of resources have been invested over a period of several years defending the registration of atrazine. In order to maintain atrazine as a viable option for weed management in Kentucky, it is important that applicators are not complacent in regards to its potential impact on the environment. Label restrictions concerning Simazat’s use near ground and surface waters are particularly important when it is applied in the fall.  Highly erodible fields with little to no vegetation, or residue cover, are especially at risk of movement of atrazine or simazine from the treated area. Certain watersheds, including portions of the Green River and Rough River are being monitored for atrazine and simazine. It is also important to consider the rate of atrazine and simazine. The recommended rate for fall applications is 2.5 pt of Simazat 4L/A. This is equivalent to 0.625 lb ai atrazine/A plus 0.625 lb ai simazine/A for a total amount of 1.25 lb ai/A. If Simazat is applied in the fall, do not exceed 2.5 pt Simazat 4L/A preemergence the following spring. When tank mixing or sequentially applying products containing atrazine and/or simazine, the cumulative amount of active ingredient of atrazine and/or simazine per calendar year must not exceed 2.5 lb ai/A.  If using the Simazat 90DF formulation, consult label for the maximum use rates.

Quick Reference to Corn Growth Stages

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Now that corn season is nearly complete, we have a quick reference guide for corn growth stages and growing degree days. County agents and ag industry personnel were using a draft of this guide for the past several years. The popularity of the document convinced us to make it an official publication.

Drying the 2011 Corn and Soybean Crops

Sam McNeill, Extension Agricultural Engineer, University of Kentucky

Wet weather this spring delayed corn and soybean planting in many areas and consequently pushed harvest later this summer.  Good drying conditions normally occur in September and October and will reduce operating costs for all drying systems.  Moreover, high temperature automatic batch and continuous flow dryers can be used to partially dry corn to 16 or 17 % moisture and unheated, natural air drying can be used to finish drying to the market level (normally 15.0%).  Drying limits for corn and soybeans are shown in Table 1 and 2, respectively.  These are the moisture levels each grain will reach after sufficient exposure to the air conditions shown.

Corn Stalks Getting Weaker

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Perfect ear, but a strong storm knocked it to the ground.

The hot weather earlier this summer and the dry weather late have combined to weaken stalks across the Commonwealth. As corn plants tried to fill seeds, they had to pull resources from the stalks. That process weakened the stalks while adding more weight to the ear.

We have seen several thousand across in different areas of Kentucky with corn knocked down from strong winds. Producers need to weigh the decision of keeping the corn in the field to dry down or taking on the risk of more corn getting knocked down. Checking stalk strength can help with this decision.

Fields with weaker stalks and good ears are excellent candidates for early harvest. Fields with excellent ears but good stalks may be next in line followed by corn with poor ears, regardless of stalk position. Many operations are spread out where they have to harvest fields when their equipment is in that area.  They may not have the luxury to pick and choose fields. However, if there is a way to pick and choose, do it. The corn is just too valuable to allow it to deteriorate in the field.

Resistance by Corn Rootworm to Bt Corn Reported in Parts of Iowa

Recently, Dr. Aaron Glassman* and colleagues have reported field resistance to Bt corn by western corn rootworm in portions of Iowa. Though this problem has been anticipated by many, this is the first scientifically documented & published occurrence of field-evolved resistance to a Bt toxin by the corn rootworm and any species of beetle.

Prevention, and failing that, management of pest resistance is one of the major benefits of using IPM techniques in your insect management program. In KY we have all three major species of corn rootworm including the western. In KY field corn production these pests are extremely well controlled by our extensive use of crop rotation. Because of this high level of essentially “free” corn rootworm control, and the possibility of developing resistance when the population is exposed to the Bt toxin, we recommend NOT planting a corn product that contains the rootworm Bt events except in very specific circumstances.

To read a summary of this report go to Kentucky Pest News and see the article written by Ric Bessin and Doug Johnson at:

http://www.ca.uky.edu/agcollege/plantpathology/extension/kpnindex.htm

To read the original scientific paper, go to:

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0022629


-OR- go to: http://www.plosone.org/home.action and type 222629 into the "search articles…" box.

*Grassmann, A.J., J.L. Petzold-Maxwell, R.S. Keweshan, M.W. Dunbar. 2011. Field-Evolved Resistance to Bt Maize by Western Corn Rootworm. PLoS ONE 6(7): e22629.

This is frogeye leaf spot of soybean. In order for frogeye to do much yield damage, it has to be active early. The frogeye is only able to infect leaves that are expanding or are scenescing. In other words, fully expanded leaves are basically immune to new infections and will only become susceptible once again when the leaves start to turn (pretty late in the game). The leaves that are showing symptoms now were infected when they were still expanding and you are just now seeing the results (infections probably 2-3 weeks old). Fungicides can only be used to prevent infections, but have no ability to control infections that have already taken place. Small lesions on leaves will continue to mature whether you apply a fungicide or not.

In reality, frogeye can look pretty rough, but it must be pretty severe before yield is hurt much. Disease in the lower canopy is of no consequence. It must be severe in the upper 1/3 of the canopy to do significant yield damage. In order to have prevented the lesions you are now seeing, fungicides would have had to have been applied about 2-3 weeks ago, before infection. Then it is questionable if later applications after you begin to see symptoms, are of much value because by the time older leaves become susceptible again, the crop is likely to be made.

Bottom line: it is either too late to do anything, or nothing needs to be done. The only outlier is if you have a late planted field that still has a long way to go (like currently at R3), then treatment may be justified since the plants will still need to put on new growth. The fungus can also infect pods and reduce seed quality, so if you are thinking about saving seed, it may be good to apply a fungicide to protect seed quality. Both strobilurins and triazoles give good control of frogeye.

Drought Expanding Across Kentucky - and Midwest

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The dry weather is expanding across the state according to the drought monitor posted on Aug. 16, 2011. About 50 percent of the state - and 90 percent of the grain crops area - fall into the "Abnormally Dry" category. The map from a week earlier estimated that about 17 percent of the state was in the same category. Similar trends can be seen across the Midwest as well.

Are you cooling your wheat?

With 80o days and 60o nights, combined with low humidity, now is a prime opportunity to begin lowering the temperature in your wheat storage bins. Since the growth, reproduction, feeding and movement rates of insects are all governed by temperature, lowering your grain temperature will only help control stored product insect infestations. Certainly we will still have plenty of warm days left before truly cold weather sets in. Nevertheless, starting to lower stored grain as early as possible will simply aid in reaching that point were insect infestations can no longer continue to increase and cause damage.
See Kentucky Pest News No. 1281 for Aug 16, 2010 at: http://www.uky.edu/KPN for more information.

Sidewall Compaction Early Hurts Yields Late

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Earlier in the season, we tried to warn about planting too early and the risks of sidewall compaction. Nick Roy, County Ag Agent in Adair County did some yield checks in a field with and without sidewall compaction. Below are his reports.

All yield checks are from the same field.

Area 1) yield check: 161 bu/acre: no compaction found, good plant color:

Area 2) yield check: 130 bu/acre: some signs of compaction, fair plant color, occassional furrow open a litle

Images of Downed Corn

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

I visited a couple fields in central Kentucky today that had downed corn. The common theme was that the fields hurt the most by the wind were also hurt by dry weather. The lack of water compromised the stalks. The stalks were very susceptible to strong winds or other weather events that might knock corn down. Much of the corn was bent over at about 20 inches above the ground. This will allow the kernels on the ears to dry a little. But, harvesting the corn at high moisture is still necessary to reduce further losses. 

Corn and Soybean Yield Contest Forms Available

Chad Lee and Jim Herbek, Extension Agronomists, University of Kentucky

Forms for both the Kentucky Soybean and Kentucky Corn yield contests are available online at the Grain Crops Extension website. The Soybean contest includes divisions for both tillage and no-tillage as well as seed quality awards.

The Corn contest has updated guidelines for its divisions. The four divisions are the same: Tillage, No-Tillage, White and Irrigated. However, the No-Tillage division is updated to coincide with the NCGA Corn Contest and follows a stricter definition of no-till.

Entry into either contest is free and is completed by harvesting the crop according to the rules and submitting the proper forms in the proper time.

Corn Contest Rules

Soybean Contest Rules

Corn Knocked down by Storms

Chad Lee and Jim Herbek, Extension Agronomists, University of Kentucky

Strong winds this past weekend knocked down corn in central Kentucky. Much of that corn was in the dent stage (growth stage R5) and had not reached blacklayer (growth stage R6). Those kernels will prematurely reach black layer and will be lightweight. Furthermore, these kernels will be above 35 percent grain moisture, but drydown will be hindered. Many fields across the Midwest had downed corn in July and that corn was at growth stages where it could recover, some, from the damage. Corn at R5 and R6 is too far along to recover from the damage. The only thing now is to salvage the crop for either grain or silage.   

Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts are Higher for 2011

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

In the August 16, 2011 Kentucky Agri-News Report, the National Agriculture Statistics Service expects corn yields for Kentucky are at 145 bu/acre and soybean yields are expected to be 40 bu/acre. Both yield forecasts are up from the 2010 season. The 2011 forecast has both corn and soybean at 27 percent increases from 2010, with 194.3 million and 60.0 million bushels for corn and soybean, respectively.

The reports assumes adequate weather for the remainder of the season and no dramatic weather events that damage the crop. There were some reports today that corn was blown over in central Kentucky. Much of the corn was in dent but not at blacklayer, so yield potential was cut short. More events like this could cause the September forecast to be reduced.

Bad Pollination - Heat a Culprit

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Now is a good time check fields for pollination problems. The high temperatures may have caused problems in some fields. See the images below. While we don't expect all fields to look like this, some will. Scouting now will help producers identify some options for this fall (even if the only options left are in marketing).

The blank kernels on these ears are from poor pollination. Heat stress is the most likely culprit. Image source: Nick Roy, Extension Agent, Adair County, Kentucky.

The blank kernels on this ear are the result of poor pollination. Heat stress is the most likely culprit. Image source: Nick Roy, Extension Agent, Adair County, Kentucky.

High Temperatures Could Hurt Corn Yields

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

So, far, the month of July has been 2 to 4 degrees F warmer than normal in Kentucky, according to the university climate data. The heat could reduce corn yields. Determining how much yield loss is based on temperature, water availability and corn growth stage. Three excellent articles by my colleagues at Iowa State, Illinois and Ohio State address these issues.

2011 Wheat Variety Trials Available

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

The 2011 Small Grains Variety Test is now available from the University of Kentucky. The direct link to the pdf is available here. In addition, you can go to the Small Grains Variety Testing website to access Excel files of the report.

One hundred wheat varieties were harvested in replicated plots at each of six locations across the state and the entire study average yield was 92.5 bushels per acre. Tests like these are extremely valuable in helping to identify varieties that perform well across several environments.

To store or not to store this year’s Soft Red Wheat Crop

By Cory Walters, Sam McNeill and Doug Johnson, University of Kentucky

Each year producers decide whether to store or sell their Soft Red Wheat (SRW) crop. Producers typically choose the latter and sell their crop off of the combine. This year the Chicago wheat (SRW) futures contract is offering a large storage incentive. The relationship between July 2011 Chicago wheat futures and March 2012 Chicago wheat futures is a plus $1.04/bu (March = $8.63, July = $7.59). Putting grain in storage AND selling a March 2012 futures contract will gain you an additional $1.04/bu. However, there are other costs and risk associated with doing this. Storage decisions should be made based upon the carry offered in the futures market, storage constraints (coming from other crops), harvest constraints, storage costs, opportunity costs of money, and other costs.

Sidewall Compaction in Corn

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

  Earlier, we posted about sidewall compaction with the understanding that farmers had to plant when they could plant and in some cases, this meant planting into fields that were a little too wet. Yesterday I visited a field where the farmer was concerned because the corn was "yellow and dying". The county agent and I visited the field at the perfect time because a rain from the night before had kept the soils wet and improved the appearance of the corn.



Corn in a compacted seed furrow. The slit of the furrow is still open. The oldest leaf has brown along the margin and yellow moving toward the midrib of the leaf, which is typical K deficiency symptoms.  



2011 Wheat Yield Contest Forms

The 2011 Kentucky Extension Wheat Yield Contest forms are available in both pdf and doc formats. The rules and procedures are the same as in 2010. The rush to get corn and soybeans planted, wheat harvested and double-crop soybeans planted might make this a challenging year to get entries in the contest.
Thanks in advance to those who chose to compete this season.

Images of Temporary Sulfur Deficiency in Corn

In a recent blog post, Dr. Murdock talked about temporary sulfur deficiency in corn. Below are some images of what we believe to be sulfur deficiency and a couple images of zinc deficiency for comparison. The two can be a bit confusing in some instances.We do not expect the sulfur deficiency symptoms in these images to lead to yield losses. Once we get rain, the symptoms should dissappear.

Weed Control Options on Fallow Crop Fields

J.D. Green and Jim Martin, Extension Weed Science, University of Kentucky
June 7, 2011

Early season rains and major flooding of bottom ground has significantly impacted planting decisions by some corn and soybean producers. As a result there are likely to be cropland in Kentucky that will not be planted this season. However, a successful weed control program may still be a needed to keep weed pressure down and reduce the introduction of more weed seed into the soil seed bank which can impact future crops.

Temporary Sulfur Deficiencies are Possible this Spring

Lloyd W. Murdock, Extension Soils Specialist

Sulfur (S) is available to the plants in the sulfate form and it can be leached deeper into the soil with high rainfall on soils that have high amounts of sand. With the large amount of rainfall we have had this year the sulfate sulfur may have been leached from the top few inches of sandy soils. As the plant begins its early growth with shallow rooting systems ,a temporary S deficiency could be experienced in these types of soils. This deficiency should correct itself quickly as the roots reach deeper into the profile where the concentrations of S will be higher due to an increase in the clay content. The organic matter in the soil will also begin decomposition rapidly as the temperatures warms, releasing S for plant uptake. An early temporary S deficiency has never been found to be yield limiting.

Plants which experience a sulfur deficiency will have a pale light green to yellow colors in the upper most leaves; the lower leaves will look normal and darker green. If these symptoms appear, they should return to normal color as the roots expand deeper into the soil.

Do as I Say not as I Do ... Challenges with Planting

Chad Lee, Grain Crops Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Often this spring, I have warned farmers not to plant one day too early to avoid "mudding in" the corn or soybeans. When we plant just one day too soon, we increase the chances of getting sidewall compaction and run a higher risk of keeping the roots bound within the furrow. Roots trapped in the furrow can lead to some real problems later in the growing season. However, yesterday, I disregarded all of that caution and mudded in soybeans.

Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program for 2011

Cory Walters and Greg Halich, Extension Ag Economists, University of Kentucky

The deadline to enroll in the ACRE program for the 2011/2012 marketing year is June 1. We are about to complete the second year with the ACRE program in Kentucky. ACRE payments were made for the 2009 wheat crop of about $95 per acre. The wheat payment was driven by lower state yields and a lower national average price. No other crops received an ACRE payment in 2009. For 2010 it is unlikely that ACRE payments will be paid for corn, soybeans, and wheat, due to the fact that prices have increased substantially for all three crops. However, with the current volatility in the market, unknown state yields, there exists a chance that ACRE payments could be made in 2011. The purpose of this article is to show expected price guarantees, where prices need to drop to trigger a payment, relationship between ACRE and the Counter-Cyclical program and probability of payments given current prices and unknown yields for the 2011/2012 marketing year.

Check Corn Planting Depth

Chad Lee, Grain Crops Extension, University of Kentucky

As producers rush to get corn planted, please remember to take time and check planter depth from field to field. The variability in soil moisture and soil type can affect the depth that seed is placed. Ideally, most corn seed should be planted around 1.5 inches deep. Corn seed depth should not exceed 2 inches and should not be less than 1 inch. Deeper plantings will delay emergence while shallow plantings may cause lodging problems later.

Everyone is under pressure to get as much corn in the soil as quickly as possible. However, taking just a few minutes to double-check seeding depth could alleviate a lot of problems later. 

Wheat Field Day, Today

The Wheat Science Field Day is today at the University of Kentucky Research and Education Center in Princeton, Kentucky. Scientists will discuss the latest research efforts on wheat management in Kentucky. For more information, go to: http://www.ca.uky.edu/news/?c=n&d=838

Relative Efficacy of Single and Stacked Corn Traits Against Insect Pests in Kentucky

Ric Bessin, Extension Entomology, University of Kentucky
Latest update: May 2011

Corn Types	Insect toxins		Dual modes of Action	ECB	SWCB	BCW	CEW	FAW	WCRW	Min. Refuge Requirement
YieldGard CB	Cry1Ab			++++	++++		++	++		20% block
Herculex 1	Cry1F			++++	++++	++	+	+++		20% block
Agrisure CB	Cry1Ab			++++	++++		++	++		20% block
YieldGard RW	Cry3Bb1								++	20% block
Herculex RW	Cry34Ab1, Cry35Ab1								++	20% block
Agrisure RW	mCry3A								++	20% block
YieldGard Plus	Cry1Ab, Cry3Bb1			++++	++++		++	++	++	20% block
Herculex Xtra	Cry1F, Cry34Ab1, Cry35Ab1			++++	++++	++	+	+++	++	20% block
Agrisure 3000GT	Cry1Ab, mCry3A			++++	++++		++	++	++	20% block
YieldGard VT3	Cry1Ab, Cry3Bb1			++++	++++		++	++	+++	20% block
YieldGard VT2 Pro	Cry1A.105, Cry2Ab2		yes	++++	++++	++	+++	++++		5% block
YieldGard VT3 Pro	Cry1A.105, Cry2Ab2, Cry3Bb1			++++	++++	++	+++	++++	+++	20% block
SmartStax	Cry1A.105, Cry2Ab2, Cry3Bb1, Cry1F, Cry34Ab1, Cry35Ab1		yes	++++	++++	+++	+++	++++	+++	5% block
Optimum Intrasect	Cry1Ab, Cry1F		yes	++++	++++	++				5% block
Agrisure Viptera 3110	Vip3Aa, Cry1Ab			++++	++++	+++	++++	++++		20% block
Agrisure Viptera 3111	Vip3Aa, Cry1Ab, mCry3A			++++	++++	+++	++++	++++	++	20% block
AcreMax 1	90% Cry1F, Cry34Ab1, Cry35Ab1 + 10% Cry1F			++++	++++	++	+	+++	++	RIB + 20% block
AcreMax RW	90% Cry34Ab1, Cry35Ab1								++	RIB
SmartStax Refuge Advanced/Complete	Cry1A.105, Cry2Ab2, Cry3Bb1, Cry1F, Cry34Ab1, Cry35Ab1 + 5% refuge seed		yes	++++	++++	+++	+++	++++	+++	RIB

ECB = European corn borer
SWCB = Southwestern corn borer
BCW = Black cutworm
CEW = Corn earworm
FAW = Fall armyworm
WCRW = Western corn rootworm


‘ + ‘ = Poor to fair control
‘++’ = Good control
‘+++’ = Very good control
‘++++’ = Excellent control
May 2011

Profitability Analysis of Late Planted Corn Compared to Soybeans

Greg Halich, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky

May 2, 2011

Background:
Although new-crop corn and soybean prices are near record highs, planting conditions remain terrible throughout Kentucky as of early May 2011.  It is estimated that only around 5% of the corn crop has been planted.  Grain farmers throughout the state are now worrying whether they will get their crops out in a timely manner this year.  An associated question being asked is at what point should they stop planting corn and switch to soybeans?  In order to answer this question, we need to estimate potential yield losses for late planted corn and compare the associated profitability against soybeans.

Wet Conditions Create Weed Management Challenges in Corn

 Jim Martin and J.D. Green, Extension Weed Specialists, University of Kentucky, April 27, 2011

The prolonged wet conditions this spring have created additional challenges in regards to weed control. The following are possible scenarios that corn farmers may encounter and factors to consider as we progress through the next several days.

Later Corn Planting Means Faster Development

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

Corn planted later will germinate and emerge more quickly, and go through crop stages faster than corn planted early.  Typically, corn requires about 100 growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge and about 200 GDDs to reach the V2 growth stage. An accumulation of about 475 GDDs is required to reach V6, the stage when the growing point moves above ground.

Estimating Nitrogen Losses from Wet Soils, 2011

Lloyd Murdock, Extension Soils Specialist, University of Kentucky

Wet soils cause nitrogen losses, and determining how much nitrogen is lost is necessary to choose the proper management options.  In cases where high intensity rain results in high runoff, leaching losses will probably be low.  The primary nitrogen loss mechanism in saturated soils in Kentucky is denitrification, which occurs when soil nitrate nitrogen (NO₃-N) is converted to nitrogen gas by soil bacteria.  Two to three days of soil saturation is required for bacteria to begin the denitrification process.  Well-drained upland soils that have been wet from a series of rains probably have not experienced much denitrification.  Soils in lower landscape positions that stay saturated longer will likely lose more N.  Losses can be calculated by estimating 3 to 4 percent loss of fertilizer NO₃-N for each day of saturation.  Use the Table below to determine how much fertilizer NO₃-N was in the soil.

Soybean Planting

Jim Herbek, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky

A very wet April has prohibited any early soybean planting. Little, if any, soybeans have been planted as of April 25. Wet weather forecast through the end of April indicates soybean planting may not get started until after May 1. Be patient; we still have time to get good yields on soybeans. Recent soybean planting date research in west Kentucky indicates soybean yield losses do not normally occur until after mid-May. So we still have about three weeks to plant soybeans for top yield potential. Soybeans planted after May 15 to 20 has an average yield loss of ½ bu per acre per day, and soybeans planted in early June has an average yield loss of 1 bu/acre/day. Currently, soil temperatures are adequate for planting soybeans, but wet soil conditions are not suitable. Planting into wet soil conditions can result in sidewall compaction, poor emergence, and a reduced soybean stand.

Insect Updates

According to the latest Kentucky Pest News, armyworm populations are tracking similar to the outbreak years of 2006 and 2008. Armyworms can cause problems in corn, wheat and other grass crops. Stay tuned to population counts to see if management is necessary.

In the same Kentucky Pest News, Ric Bessin writes that the EPA has approved SmartStax refuge in the bag, being marketed as SmartStax Refuge Complete by Monsanto and SmartStax Refuge Advanced by Dow AgroSciences.

See the latest Kentucky Pest News for more information. 

Wet Soils and Corn Seedling Disease Risks

Paul Vincelli, Extension Plant Pathology, University of Kentucky

Soggy soils certainly are favorable for important seed rots and seedling diseases of corn, especially Pythium diseases. However, two things are working in the producers’ favor:

1. Pythium species attack stressed corn. Soils in May are generally warm enough that corn is better able to fight off infections than it would be in late March or early April; 
2. Common seed-treatment fungicides provide a fair amount of protection against seed and seedling diseases. 

It’s always a good idea to monitor corn stands for emergence and stand establishment, but I am less worried about widespread seedling problems than I am about leaf diseases. Continued sogginess could eventually result in major delays in planting. Corn crops planted in early to mid-May and beyond are at greater risk from a variety of destructive diseases, especially gray leaf spot, northern leaf blight, and southern rust. We’re not at that stage yet, but it is worth being aware of this potential risk.

Wet April, 2011

Chad Lee, Grain Crops Extension, University of Kentucky

Tom Priddy, with the University of Kentucky Ag Weather Center sent out the following link for April rainfall history. With six days left to report, Lexington and Frankfort both have the wettest April in history. Louisville is less than an inch from beating its record totals for rainfall. Bowling Green is fairing much better with 'only' 6.82 inches so far.

Good Reading in Rainy Weather

Chad Lee, Grain Crops Extension, University of Kentucky

No doubt many of you are finding ways to keep busy while we all wait for fields to dry by fixing the old tractor that always leaked fluid, mending the fence that the calves always seem to break at weaning, or  cleaning up the shop, or... perish the thought... catching up on the honey-do list. One more thing you can do while you wait for the weather to clear up is to take a look at the Kentucky SoyMVP report for 2009 and 2010.

Scout for Stripe Rust in Wheat

Don Hershman, Extension Plant Pathologist, University of Kentucky


Be on alert for stripe rust. The disease may have overwintered in your area and there may be some hot spots that could serve as fuel for a rapidly developing problem on a field by field basis. I wrote a KY Pest News article on this a couple of issues ago. It may not be a problem, but it is easy to miss things this time of year unless active crop scouting is taking place. The disease level in this particular field really increased over the past two weeks. Phil Needham said he has seen stripe rust in other fields too, but this one in Oak Grove is the worst so far. Still, there may be fields with a similar level of disease.


For information on management of stripe rust go to Chapter 7 of the Wheat Management Guide.

Figure 1. Stripe rust in wheat.

 Figure 2. Stripe rust in wheat. 

Are University Corn Planting Date Recommendations any Good?

Chad Lee, Grain Crops Extension, University of Kentucky

The recommended window to plant corn in central Kentucky is April 15 to May 15. Yet, many producers will plant earlier than this if the weather allows. Often, we hear that the first fields planted have the best yields. But, this observation is confounded, because the earliest fields planted are often well-drained and best suited for early planting. So, were the high yields due to early planting or good soils or both?

In an attempt to get at this question, data from production farms in central Kentucky were evaluated only for planting and yield. Other variables such as soil type, hybrid number, hybrid maturity, seeding rate, weed control, etc. were not considered. Each data point on each figure represents planting date and yield for a single field in a single year.  Figure 1 is the combined data for all years and the x-axis is “day of year” where 105 = April 15, 120 = May 1 and 135 = May 15. Yields in 2005 were extremely low and most planting dates were between April 10 and April 25, about the earliest planting for any of the years.

Kentucky Wheat Looks Good ... so Far

Chad Lee, Grain Crops Extension, University of Kentucky

The the USDA rates about 81% of Kentucky wheat either good or excellent for the April 3, 2011 reporting period in the Kentucky Weekly Crop and Weather Report. Meanwhile, the USDA reported that only 37% of the wheat was either good or excellent in 18 states for the same reporting period.

Considering how much of the wheat was behind just a month ago, this report is good news. While we are not out of the woods yet, this is a promising start as wheat joints and pushes toward the flag leaf. There is still a chance for a freeze event, as the 50% probability for final freeze is around April 15 for much of southern Kentucky. Also, producers need to check stands for any signs of diseases as well.

Even though there are some risks to this crop, it nice to hear some good news. 

Corn and Soybean Profitability 2011

Corn and Soybean Projected Profitability 2011
March 22, 2011
Greg Halich
Department of Agricultural Economics
University of Kentucky
859-257-8841
Greg.Halich@uky.edu

Corn and Soybean New Crop Price Estimates for 2011 (Based on CME 3/22/11 Closing)
Scenario:	Corn	Soybeans
Low	$4.75	$10.75
Baseline	$5.75	$13.00
High	$6.75	$15.25

Input w/Greatest Impact on Profit?
Fertilizer Cost.
→ Let’s look at fertilizer prices.

Did the heavy rains reduce nitrogen in wheat?

The following are some comments from Lloyd Murdock, Extension Soil Scientist, University of Kentucky

There a number of the low lying spots where the wheat is turning yellow due to water standing for extended periods of time.  In some cases, these yellow areas are wheat streak mosaic virus, but in other cases the yellow color was probably due to the lack of oxygen for extended periods of time.  All of the yellow leaves were mainly the older ones and the newer leaves where healthy and well colored (i.e. green). In these cases, wheat in lowest parts of the low spots has more yellow leaves and is more stunted.  Assuming no more extended monsoons, I would expect that most of the plants to continue development and do well.  The most stunted plants may be a little restricted on yield.   If there are areas where the plants are entirely yellow then these plants would not be expected to recover or would recover and be severely limited in yield.

The amount of nitrogen lost in these fields is probably not that much.  Since it was cool during these waterlogged conditions, denitrification was probably not very active during this time. The primary source of nitrogen loss would be leaching but not much leaching occurs in our silt loam soils.  A safe guess for nitrogen loss from our silt loams soils would be a maximum of about 25% of N applied and less than that in most cases. So if 50 pounds N/acre was applied before the rainy spell then one would only expect about 12 pounds N/acre to have been lost, at the most.

Wheat Soil-Borne Mosaic Virus Prevalent

The following is in the Kentucky Pest News from Don Hershman  

By Don Hershman ​

Over the past few weeks, we have been getting questions about fields that look similar to Fig. 1.  Initially, we thought the problem was related to nitrogen deficiency in areas of fields that were subject to water saturation. In some cases, inadequate availability and/or uptake of nitrogen may be the culprit. However, we have since determined that most of the fields exhibiting patches of stunted and yellowed plants are most likely affected by Wheat Soil-borne Mosaic Virus (WSBMV).  We have come to this conclusion based on samples from symptomatic fields that have tested positive for WSBMV using a very reliable antibody-based diagnostic test known as ELISA.  

Planting corn for silage, 2011

Chad Lee, University of Kentucky

email: Chad Lee

Corn silage is a valuable feedstock for many dairy farms and some beef operations. The higher price of inputs this season puts even more pressure on maximizing yield without breaking the bank on inputs. Some of the following guidelines should help with a successful planting season and put the silage corn crop in the best position to reach high yields.

2011 Crop Insurance Plan Changes and Choices

Cory Walters, Extension Economist, University of Kentucky
email: Cory Walters

The Risk Management Agency, who oversees the crop insurance program, released their new Common Crop Insurance Policy (CCIP) or otherwise known as COMBO. COMBO represents a new insurance plan structure designed to simplify choices. In COMBO only individual plans not county level plans like Group Risk Income Plan (GRIP) are affected. The goal of this short article is to educate producers on the differences between COMBO insurance plans.

COMBO offers three insurance plans, Yield Protection (YP), Revenue Protection (RP), and Revenue Protection with the harvest price exclusion (RP-HPE). Table 1, shows the new COMBO insurance plan name and what it replaces.

Wheat Crop Condition, March 2011

Chad Lee, Extension Agronomist, University of Kentucky
email: Chad Lee

The cold weather and late emergence of some wheat across the state has many producers concerned about how their crop will do this spring. Much of the first application of fertilizer nitrogen has been applied as well. The warmer temperatures predicted for the week of March 14, 2011 should result in rapid wheat growth. There are several management decisions that must be made, including if the stand is suitable to keep.

Planting soybean into sod, 2011

Chad Lee and Jim Herbek, University of Kentucky
email: Chad Lee or Jim Herbek

Planting soybean into sod is an option for producers looking to increase acres.  Soybean could generate a gross return of  $500 per acre, or more, depending on yield and marketing. Soybean is also a good option for producers who need to renovate pasture and hayfields. Some producers have a lot of experience with soybean while others may be looking at the crop for the first time. The following guidelines attempt to be applicable to both groups of producers.

Consider the following when converting sod to soybean:

Planting corn into sod, 2011

Chad Lee and Jim Herbek, University of Kentucky
email: Chad Lee or Jim Herbek

Planting corn into sod comes with some general opportunities and challenges. Corn could generate a gross return of $500 to $700 per acre, or more, depending on yield and marketing. That is a large enough opportunity to consider taking old pasture or hay fields and converting them to corn for 2011.

While some producers have plenty of experience with corn, others are more experienced with tobacco, hay or pastures. The general comments below are targeted to both types of producers.

Glyphosate and Potential Interactions with Diseases or Manganese

Chad Lee, University of Kentucky
Email: Chad Lee


There have been some news articles about interactions between glyphosate and manganese (Mn). Other articles discuss possible links between glyphosate and plant diseases.

Bob Hartzler at Iowa State does an excellent job of summarizing the current scientific research on the subject. His summary can be found at: http://www.weeds.iastate.edu/mgmt/2010/glyMndisease.pdf

As Dr. Hartzler states that the proposed manganese deficiency from glyphosate applications does not appear to hurt yields, and nor does a subsequent foliar Mn increase yields. On the disease issue, some interactions have been documented in the greenhouse, but nothing consistent has been reported in the field. In some cases, such as Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS), soybean variety appears to be much more important than whether or not glyphosate was applied.