IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v15y2023i2p306-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Nicole Maestas
  • Kathleen J. Mullen
  • David Powell

Abstract

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:306-32
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20190196
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E173781V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20190196.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20190196.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/mac.20190196?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 13929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Ariell Reshef & Bent E Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2010. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 769-783, November.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    4. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    5. Axel Börsch-Supan & Ismail Düzgün & Matthias Weiss, 2008. "Labour Productivity in an Aging Society," Chapters, in: Dirk Broeders & Sylvester Eiffinger & Aerdt Houben (ed.), Frontiers in Pension Finance, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2013. "Testing for Factor Price Equality with Unobserved Differences in Factor Quality or Productivity," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 135-163, May.
    7. Fatih Karahan & Serena Rhee, 2014. "Population aging, migration spillovers, and the decline in interstate migration," Staff Reports 699, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Gary Burtless, 2013. "The Impact of Population Aging and Delayed Retirement on Workforce Productivity," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2013-11, Center for Retirement Research.
    9. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2013. "The Effect of Local Labor Demand Conditions on the Labor Supply Outcomes of Older Americans," Working Papers WR-1019, RAND Corporation.
    10. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    11. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    12. Vicki Freedman & Brenda Spillman & Patti Andreski & Jennifer Cornman & Eileen Crimmins & Ellen Kramarow & James Lubitz & Linda Martin & Sharon Merkin & Robert Schoeni & Teresa Seeman & Timothy Waidman, 2013. "Trends in Late-Life Activity Limitations in the United States: An Update From Five National Surveys," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 661-671, April.
    13. Gan, Li & Li, Qi, 2016. "Efficiency of thin and thick markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 40-54.
    14. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, June.
    16. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    17. Louise Sheiner, 2014. "The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 218-223, May.
    18. Erik Hurst, 2008. "The Retirement of a Consumption Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    20. Dirk Broeders & Sylvester Eiffinger & Aerdt Houben (ed.), 2008. "Frontiers in Pension Finance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12976.
    21. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    22. Wong Wei-Kang, 2007. "Economic Growth: A Channel Decomposition Exercise," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    23. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & David Powell, 2013. "The Effect of Local Labor Demand Conditions on the Labor Supply Outcomes of Older Americans," Discussion Papers 13-014, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    24. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 135-168.
    25. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Gary S. Becker, 1975. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, Second Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck75-1, June.
    27. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimmel, Jean, 1997. "Rural wages and returns to education: Differences between whites, blacks, and American Indians," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 81-96, February.
    2. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    3. Johannes Schwarze, 1990. "Ausbildung und Einkommen: eine vergleichende Humankapitalanalyse für beide deutsche Staaten," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 12, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Zafar Mueen Nasir & Nasir Iqbal, 2009. "Employers Size Wage Differential: Does Investment in Human Capital Matter?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 509-521.
    5. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Merz, Joachim & Böhm, Paul, 2006. "Tägliche Arbeitszeitmuster und Einkommen von Freien Berufen – Neue Ergebnisse aus der deutschen Zeitbudgeterhebung," MPRA Paper 5842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. James J. Heckman, 2015. "Introduction to A Theory of the Allocation of Time by Gary Becker," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 403-409, March.
    8. Alberto Bayo-Moriones & Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez & Maia Güell, 2010. "Is seniority-based pay used as a motivational device? Evidence from plant-level data," Research in Labor Economics, in: Jobs, Training, and Worker Well-being, pages 155-187, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Jung, Hyun-Joon & Na, Kyoung-Youn & Yoon, Chang-Ho, 2013. "The role of ICT in Korea’s economic growth: Productivity changes across industries since the 1990s," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 292-310.
    11. Yoon, Chang-Ho & Na, Kyoung-Youn, 2013. "Efficiency of transport infrastructure and ICT development," 24th European Regional ITS Conference, Florence 2013 88526, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    12. Edward N. Wolff, "undated". "Skills, Computerization, and Earnings in the Postwar U.S. Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_331, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Zhang, Xiaobei & Wang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    15. Sumbal Fatima & Bateer Chen & Muhammad Ramzan & Qamar Abbas, 2020. "The Nexus Between Trade Openness and GDP Growth: Analyzing the Role of Human Capital Accumulation," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    16. Luis Eduardo Arango & Diana Carolina Escobar & Emma Mercedes Monsalve, 2013. "Subempleo por ingresos y funcionamiento del mercado de trabajo en Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, December.
    17. Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 529-557, December.
    18. Gruber, Lloyd & Kosack, Stephen, 2014. "The tertiary tilt: education and inequality in the developing world," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54202, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Aysit Tansel & Elif Oznur Acar, 2016. "The Formal/Informal Employment Earnings Gap: Evidence from Turkey," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Inequality after the 20th Century: Papers from the Sixth ECINEQ Meeting, volume 24, pages 121-154, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Joachim Merz & Peter Paic, 2006. "New microeconometric evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," FFB-Discussionpaper 56, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:306-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy