IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecb/ecbrbu/20200074.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why has inflation in the United States been so stable since the 1990s?

Author

Listed:
  • Del Negro, Marco
  • Lenza, Michele
  • Primiceri, Giorgio
  • Tambalotti, Andrea

Abstract

The analysis of inflation dynamics and their possible changes over time is a key input in the design of monetary policy, particularly in the context of the strategy reviews recently undertaken by the Federal Reserve System and currently under way at the European Central Bank and other central banks. In this article, we study the causes of the stability of US inflation over the business cycle since the 1990s. We conclude that it is mainly due to a reduced sensitivity of firms’ pricing decisions to their cost pressures. Ignoring this observation could impair the ability of monetary policy to steer inflation toward its objective. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "Why has inflation in the United States been so stable since the 1990s?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 74.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2020:0074:
    Note: 411196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/resbull/2020/html/ecb.rb200917~3bc072ea95.en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/resbull/2020/html/ecb.rb200917~3bc072ea95.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    3. Kristin J. Forbes, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 257-338.
    4. Elena Bobeica & Marek Jarociński, 2019. "Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 199-232, March.
    5. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    6. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    7. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Böhl, Gregor & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2021. "The hockey stick Phillips curve and the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 55/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    3. Böhl, Gregor & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2021. "The hockey stick Phillips curve and the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 153, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    5. Combes, Jean-Louis & Lesuisse, Pierre, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 124-142.
    6. López-Salido, J David & Loria, Francesca, 2019. "Inflation at Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    8. Aginta, Harry, 2023. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. J. David López-Salido & Francesca Loria, 2020. "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Abbate, Angela & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 41/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    13. Kouvavas, Omiros & Osbat, Chiara & Reinelt, Timo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "Markups and inflation cyclicality in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2617, European Central Bank.
    14. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    16. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    17. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    18. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    19. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2016-19, CEPII research center.
    20. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2024. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1028-1044, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; unemployment; monetary policy trade-off;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2020:0074:. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy