IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v252y2019ic35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gas supply reliability analysis of a natural gas pipeline system considering the effects of underground gas storages

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Weichao
  • Gong, Jing
  • Song, Shangfei
  • Huang, Weihe
  • Li, Yichen
  • Zhang, Jie
  • Hong, Bingyuan
  • Zhang, Ye
  • Wen, Kai
  • Duan, Xu

Abstract

Underground gas storage plays a significant role in ensuring gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems. However, the specific hydraulic characteristics of the underground gas storage and the uncertainties in its gas injection/production capacity are generally overlooked when evaluating the gas supply reliability. Therefore, an integrated methodology to assess gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system is developed in this study, and three aspects of uncertainty and hydraulic characteristic of the natural gas pipeline system are both considered. Based on system’s gas supply strategy, the amounts of gas supplied by the transmission pipeline system and required by the consumers are calculated firstly. The underground gas storage is then employed to regulate the supply-demand imbalance between the transmission pipeline system and market demand by performing its gas injection/production function. Moreover, the operational reliability of the underground gas storage is evaluated to determine whether it is able to complete the specified gas injection/production task. Then, the total daily amount of gas supplied to the consumers, is obtained, and two indicators proposed to quantify the gas supply reliability are then calculated. Finally, the expected gas supply reliability is assessed based on a large number of Monte Carlo trials. Moreover, the methodology is applied to a simplified gas pipeline system to confirm its feasibility, and system’s ability to satisfy the consumers demand is evaluated, and the weakest consumer node is identified. Furthermore, the gas supply reliability is overestimated without considering the uncertainties in the underground gas storage’s gas injection/production capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Weichao & Gong, Jing & Song, Shangfei & Huang, Weihe & Li, Yichen & Zhang, Jie & Hong, Bingyuan & Zhang, Ye & Wen, Kai & Duan, Xu, 2019. "Gas supply reliability analysis of a natural gas pipeline system considering the effects of underground gas storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:252:y:2019:i:c:35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191931092X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113418?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    2. Fu, Xueqian & Li, Gengyin & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of the gas supply using a data-driven model in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 704-714.
    3. Praks, Pavel & Kopustinskas, Vytis & Masera, Marcelo, 2015. "Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 254-264.
    4. Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun & Zio, Enrico & Yang, Nan & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2018. "An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 489-501.
    5. Thaler, Marko & Grabec, Igor & Poredoš, Alojz, 2005. "Prediction of energy consumption and risk of excess demand in a distribution system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 46-53.
    6. Wiskich, Anthony, 2014. "Implementing a load duration curve of electricity demand in a general equilibrium model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 373-380.
    7. Ahmadian Behrooz, Hesam & Boozarjomehry, R. Bozorgmehry, 2017. "Dynamic optimization of natural gas networks under customer demand uncertainties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 968-983.
    8. Pambour, Kwabena Addo & Cakir Erdener, Burcin & Bolado-Lavin, Ricardo & Dijkema, Gerard P.J., 2017. "SAInt – A novel quasi-dynamic model for assessing security of supply in coupled gas and electricity transmission networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 829-857.
    9. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    10. Eser, P. & Chokani, N. & Abhari, R., 2019. "Impact of Nord Stream 2 and LNG on gas trade and security of supply in the European gas network of 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 816-830.
    11. Chaudry, Modassar & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick, 2013. "A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 473-483.
    12. Yang, Chunhe & Wang, Tongtao & Li, Yinping & Yang, Haijun & Li, Jianjun & Qu, Dan’an & Xu, Baocai & Yang, Yun & Daemen, J.J.K., 2015. "Feasibility analysis of using abandoned salt caverns for large-scale underground energy storage in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 467-481.
    13. Rimkevicius, Sigitas & Kaliatka, Algirdas & Valincius, Mindaugas & Dundulis, Gintautas & Janulionis, Remigijus & Grybenas, Albertas & Zutautaite, Inga, 2012. "Development of approach for reliability assessment of pipeline network systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 22-33.
    14. Yu, Weichao & Wen, Kai & Min, Yuan & He, Lei & Huang, Weihe & Gong, Jing, 2018. "A methodology to quantify the gas supply capacity of natural gas transmission pipeline system using reliability theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 128-141.
    15. Su, Meirong & Zhang, Mingqi & Lu, Weiwei & Chang, Xin & Chen, Bin & Liu, Gengyuan & Hao, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2017. "ENA-based evaluation of energy supply security: Comparison between the Chinese crude oil and natural gas supply systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 888-899.
    16. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    17. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    18. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi, 2018. "A systematic framework of vulnerability analysis of a natural gas pipeline network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 79-91.
    19. Shaikh, Faheemullah & Ji, Qiang & Shaikh, Pervez Hameed & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam, 2017. "Forecasting China’s natural gas demand based on optimised nonlinear grey models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 941-951.
    20. Rodríguez-Gómez, Nuria & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Bolado-Lavín, Ricardo, 2016. "European ability to cope with a gas crisis. Comparison between 2009 and 2014," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 461-474.
    21. Yu, Weichao & Song, Shangfei & Li, Yichen & Min, Yuan & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing, 2018. "Gas supply reliability assessment of natural gas transmission pipeline systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 853-870.
    22. Szikszai, A. & Monforti, F., 2011. "GEMFLOW: A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5129-5136, September.
    23. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of gas supply using the central moment method in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 1-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xuejie Li & Yuan Xue & Yuxing Li & Qingshan Feng, 2022. "An Optimization Method for a Compressor Standby Scheme Based on Reliability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Wang, Qi & Miao, Cairan & Tang, Yi, 2022. "Power shortage support strategies considering unified gas-thermal inertia in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    3. Long, Keji & Tang, Yong & He, Youwei & Luo, Yulong & Hong, Yinghe & Sun, Yu & Rui, Zhenhua, 2024. "Full-cycle enhancing condensate recovery-underground gas storage by integrating cyclic gas flooding and storage from gas condensate reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Ivanna Zapukhliak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk & Oleh Dzoba & Oleksandra Romashko, 2022. "Underground Gas Storage Facilities in Ukraine: Current State and Future Prospects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-34, September.
    5. Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Ming & Chen, Sai & Nie, Rui, 2020. "Assessing the resilience of China’s natural gas importation under network disruptions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    6. Wang, Song & Guo, Zhengzhi & Wang, Zhaoyang & Gao, YiFan & Sun, Muyi, 2024. "User generated content intelligent analysis for urban natural gas with transformer-based cyber-physical social systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    7. He, Youwei & Wang, Ning & Tang, Yong & Tang, Liangrui & He, Zhiyue & Rui, Zhenhua, 2024. "Formation-water evaporation and salt precipitation mechanism in porous media under movable water conditions in underground gas storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    8. Weichao Yu & Xianbin Zheng & Weihe Huang & Qingwen Cai & Jie Guo & Jili Xu & Yang Liu & Jing Gong & Hong Yang, 2022. "A Data-Driven Methodology for the Reliability Analysis of the Natural Gas Compressor Unit Considering Multiple Failure Modes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Wang, Can & Xie, Haipeng & Bie, Zhaohong & Li, Gengfeng & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Fast supply reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas system based on stochastic capacity network model and importance sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Xie, Mingjiang & Zhao, Jianli & Zuo, Ming J. & Tian, Zhigang & Liu, Libin & Wu, Jinming, 2023. "Multi-objective maintenance decision-making of corroded parallel pipeline systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    11. Liu, Liu & Wang, Dan & Hou, Kai & Jia, Hong-jie & Li, Si-yuan, 2020. "Region model and application of regional integrated energy system security analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. Hong, Bingyuan & Li, Xiaoping & Song, Shangfei & Chen, Shilin & Zhao, Changlong & Gong, Jing, 2020. "Optimal planning and modular infrastructure dynamic allocation for shale gas production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    13. Chen, Ying & Koch, Thorsten & Zakiyeva, Nazgul & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the dynamics of the natural gas transmission network in Germany with the demand and supply balance constraint," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    14. Yu, Weichao & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Kai & Zhang, Jie & Liu, Hongfei & Wang, Kun & Gong, Jing & Qu, Chunxu, 2021. "Subset simulation-based reliability analysis of the corroding natural gas pipeline," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Yu, Weichao & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Yunhao & Li, Yichen & Liu, Hongfei & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing & Lu, Yanan, 2021. "An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    16. Wen, Kai & Lu, Yangfan & Lu, Meitong & Zhang, Wenwei & Zhu, Ming & Qiao, Dan & Meng, Fanpeng & Zhang, Jing & Gong, Jing & Hong, Bingyuan, 2022. "Multi-period optimal infrastructure planning of natural gas pipeline network system integrating flowrate allocation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    17. Miao, Cairan & Wang, Qi & Tang, Yi, 2023. "A gas-thermal inertia-based frequency response strategy considering the suppression of a second frequency dip in an integrated energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    18. Peng, Jinghong & Zhou, Jun & Liang, Guangchuan & Li, Chengyu & Qin, Can, 2024. "Multi-period integrated scheduling optimization of complex natural gas pipeline network system with underground gas storage to ensure economic and environmental benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    19. Xu, Jiuping & Tang, Min & Liu, Tingting & Fan, Lurong, 2024. "Technological paradigm-based development strategy towards natural gas hydrate technology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    20. Xiao, Ludi & Zhou, Peng & Bai, Yang & Zhang, Kai, 2024. "Modeling the dynamic allocation problem of multi-service storage system with strategy learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    21. Bao, Minglei & Ding, Yi & Yin, Xunhu & Shao, Changzheng & Ye, Chenjin, 2021. "Definitions and Reliability Evaluation of Multi-state Systems Considering State Transition Process and its Application for Gas Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Weichao & Song, Shangfei & Li, Yichen & Min, Yuan & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing, 2018. "Gas supply reliability assessment of natural gas transmission pipeline systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 853-870.
    2. Xuejie Li & Yuan Xue & Yuxing Li & Qingshan Feng, 2022. "An Optimization Method for a Compressor Standby Scheme Based on Reliability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Yu, Weichao & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Yunhao & Li, Yichen & Liu, Hongfei & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing & Lu, Yanan, 2021. "An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Cao, Yankai & Bu, Yaran & Chen, Feng & Sadiq, Rehan, 2021. "Supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline network under stochastic demands," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Cabrales, Sergio & Valencia, Carlos & Ramírez, Carlos & Ramírez, Andrés & Herrera, Juan & Cadena, Angela, 2022. "Stochastic cost-benefit analysis to assess new infrastructure to improve the reliability of the natural gas supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Bu, Yaran & Lu, Yifei & Huang, Yanfei & Chen, Feng, 2020. "Short-term supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline system under demand variations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Zhu, Jianhua & Peng, Yan & Gong, Zhuping & Sun, Yanming & Lai, Chaoan & Wang, Qing & Zhu, Xiaojun & Gan, Zhongxue, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of SNG and PNG supply: The stability and robustness view #," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 717-729.
    8. Zhaoming Yang & Qi Xiang & Yuxuan He & Shiliang Peng & Michael Havbro Faber & Enrico Zio & Lili Zuo & Huai Su & Jinjun Zhang, 2023. "Resilience of Natural Gas Pipeline System: A Review and Outlook," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Corrado lo Storto, 2019. "An SNA-DEA Prioritization Framework to Identify Critical Nodes of Gas Networks: The Case of the US Interstate Gas Infrastructure," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun & Zio, Enrico & Yang, Nan & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2018. "An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 489-501.
    11. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng & Li, Gengyin, 2019. "Estimating the failure probability in an integrated energy system considering correlations among failure patterns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 656-666.
    12. Wang, Can & Xie, Haipeng & Bie, Zhaohong & Li, Gengfeng & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Fast supply reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas system based on stochastic capacity network model and importance sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Yassine Rqiq & Jesus Beyza & Jose M. Yusta & Ricardo Bolado-Lavin, 2020. "Assessing the Impact of Investments in Cross-Border Pipelines on the Security of Gas Supply in the EU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.
    14. Zhou, Xingyuan & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Haoran, 2020. "An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Chen, Ying & Koch, Thorsten & Zakiyeva, Nazgul & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the dynamics of the natural gas transmission network in Germany with the demand and supply balance constraint," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    16. Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Li, Yun & Hua, Kaixun & Mehrtash, Mahdi & Cao, Yankai, 2022. "Optimization of compressor standby schemes for gas transmission pipeline systems based on gas delivery reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    17. Zhou, Dengji & Jia, Xingyun & Ma, Shixi & Shao, Tiemin & Huang, Dawen & Hao, Jiarui & Li, Taotao, 2022. "Dynamic simulation of natural gas pipeline network based on interpretable machine learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    18. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik, 2018. "Approaches to Methods of Risk Analysis and Assessment Regarding the Gas Supply to a City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, November.
    19. Chi, Lixun & Qadrdan, Meysam & Chaudry, Modassar & Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun, 2024. "Reliability of net-zero energy systems for South Wales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    20. Sesini, Marzia & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2020. "The impact of liquefied natural gas and storage on the EU natural gas infrastructure resilience," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:252:y:2019:i:c:35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy