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Do banks’ internal Basel risk estimates reflect risk?

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  • Barakova, Irina
  • Palvia, Ajay

Abstract

Using supervisory data for U.S. banks, we evaluate the alignment of Basel II/III AIRB (advanced internal ratings based) risk estimates with portfolio risk. We use loan performance as a direct measure of portfolio risk as well as less direct market-based measures. Our results document that AIRB risk weights are highly correlated with loan performance and that, in contrast, Basel I risk weights are not. We find that capital requirements under the AIRB approach are higher than those under Basel I especially for portfolios recently under stress such as mortgages and some sovereign exposures. The alignment of Basel risk estimates with market-based risk indicators is less robust, although the association is nevertheless stronger under the AIRB approach. Our results support the view that internally generated risk weights are determined mostly by portfolio risk and, as a result, are substantially more risk sensitive than the fixed asset class based risk weights of Basel I.

Suggested Citation

  • Barakova, Irina & Palvia, Ajay, 2014. "Do banks’ internal Basel risk estimates reflect risk?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 167-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:13:y:2014:i:c:p:167-179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2014.05.005
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    5. Mohamed Albaity & Mohammadmahdi Toobaee, 2017. "The Risk-sensitivity of Bank Capital Requirements: The Moderating Effects of Capital Regulation and Supervisory Power," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 94-102.
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    7. Rainer Baule & Christian Tallau, 2016. "Revisiting Basel risk weights: cross-sectional risk sensitivity and cyclicality," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(8), pages 905-931, November.
    8. Cucinelli, Doriana & Battista, Maria Luisa Di & Marchese, Malvina & Nieri, Laura, 2018. "Credit risk in European banks: The bright side of the internal ratings based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 213-229.
    9. Sophia Döme & Stefan Kerbl, 2017. "Comparability of Basel risk weights in the EU banking sector," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 34, pages 68-89.
    10. Ferri, Giovanni & Pesic, Valerio, 2017. "Bank regulatory arbitrage via risk weighted assets dispersion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 331-345.
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