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Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households

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  • Dovern, Jonas

Abstract

Recently, much attention has been devoted to measuring macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. The survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure offers a very efficient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many different expectations at a low cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas, 2024. "Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 113-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:113-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic expectations; Expectation uncertainty; Density expectations; Inflation expectation; Survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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