IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v215y2022ics004727272200130x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement

Author

Listed:
  • Bíró, Anikó
  • Prinz, Dániel
  • Sándor, László

Abstract

We study the implications of the minimum wage for taxation in an environment with imperfect enforcement and informality. Leveraging an increase in the audit threat for declared earnings below a threshold at twice the minimum wage in Hungary, we estimate reporting and employment responses with administrative panel data. Our bunching and difference-in-differences results show that a substantial share of those who report earning the minimum wage earn at least the same amount off the books. Our key insight is that a taxed minimum wage serves as a backstop on underreporting and recovers some revenue —even though it also increases informality.

Suggested Citation

  • Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:215:y:2022:i:c:s004727272200130x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104728
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004727272200130X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104728?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Karablieh, Yazan & Koumanakos, Evangelos & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2021. "Clearing the bar: Improving tax compliance for small firms through target setting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Costas Meghir & Renata Narita & Jean-Marc Robin, 2015. "Wages and Informality in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1509-1546, April.
    3. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2021. "Foreign ownership and labor tax evasion: Evidence from Latvia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Emmanuel Saez, 2021. "Public Economics and Inequality: Uncovering Our Social Nature," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 1-26, May.
    5. Daniel Hungerman, 2023. "Tax evasion, efficiency, and bunching in the presence of enforcement notches," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 43-68, February.
    6. Rocha, Rudi & Ulyssea, Gabriel & Rachter, Laísa, 2018. "Do lower taxes reduce informality? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 28-49.
    7. Jeffrey Clemens, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    8. Suresh de Mel & David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2013. "The Demand for, and Consequences of, Formalization among Informal Firms in Sri Lanka," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 122-150, April.
    9. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2014. "Testing for Asymmetric Information Using “Unused Observables” in Insurance Markets: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(4), pages 709-734, December.
    10. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Emmanuel Saez, 2013. "Using Differences in Knowledge across Neighborhoods to Uncover the Impacts of the EITC on Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2683-2721, December.
    11. Marcelo Bergolo & Rodrigo Ceni & Guillermo Cruces & Matias Giaccobasso & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2023. "Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 110-153, February.
    12. Alan Manning, 2021. "The Elusive Employment Effect of the Minimum Wage," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    13. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    14. Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2007. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Presumptive Taxation," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 63(3), pages 311-326, September.
    15. Peter Harasztosi & Attila Lindner, 2019. "Who Pays for the Minimum Wage?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2693-2727, August.
    16. Tonin, Mirco, 2011. "Minimum wage and tax evasion: Theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1635-1651.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ra95789n9nrr59b6lmini6tp is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    19. Colin C. WILLIAMS & Jo PADMORE, 2013. "“Envelope wages” in the European Union," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 152(3-4), pages 411-430, December.
    20. Péter Elek & János Köllő, 2019. "Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 547-576, August.
    21. Péter Elek & János Köllő & Balázs Reizer & Péter A. Szabó, 2012. "Chapter 4 Detecting Wage Under-Reporting Using a Double-Hurdle Model," Research in Labor Economics, in: Informal Employment in Emerging and Transition Economies, pages 135-166, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    22. Hashimzade, Nigar & Myles, Gareth D. & Rablen, Matthew D., 2016. "Predictive analytics and the targeting of audits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 130-145.
    23. Jeffrey B. Liebman & Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2015. "Would People Behave Differently If They Better Understood Social Security? Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 275-299, February.
    24. Emmanuel Saez & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2016. "Generalized Social Marginal Welfare Weights for Optimal Tax Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 24-45, January.
    25. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2018. "Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    26. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    27. Colin C. Williams, 2013. "Evaluating cross-national variations in the extent and nature of informal employment in the European Union," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5-6), pages 479-494, November.
    28. Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Firms, Informality, and Development: Theory and Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2015-2047, August.
    29. Amy Finkelstein & Nathaniel Hendren, 2020. "Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 146-167, Fall.
    30. Lee, David & Saez, Emmanuel, 2012. "Optimal minimum wage policy in competitive labor markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 739-749.
    31. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    32. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    33. Bjørneby, Marie & Alstadsæter, Annette & Telle, Kjetil, 2021. "Limits to third-party reporting: Evidence from a randomized field experiment in Norway," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    34. Costas Meghir & Renata Narita & Jean-Marc Robin, 2015. "Wages and Informality in Developing Countries," SciencePo Working papers hal-03587627, HAL.
    35. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2016. "Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(330), pages 219-246, April.
    36. Mirco Tonin, 2013. "Underreporting of earnings and the minimum wage spike," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, December.
    37. Bergolo, Marcelo & Cruces, Guillermo, 2014. "Work and tax evasion incentive effects of social insurance programs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 211-228.
    38. Christian Dustmann & Attila Lindner & Uta Schönberg & Matthias Umkehrer & Philipp vom Berge, 2022. "Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 267-328.
    39. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadow: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Working Papers CEB 21-017, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    40. Elek, Peter & Köllő, János & Reizer, Balázs & Szabó, Péter A., 2011. "Detecting Wage Under-reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model," IZA Discussion Papers 6224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    41. Ofer H. Azar, 2020. "The Economics of Tipping," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 215-236, Spring.
    42. Gabriel Ulyssea, 2020. "Informality: Causes and Consequences for Development," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 525-546, August.
    43. Konstantin Pashev, 2006. "Presumptive Taxation: Lessons from Bulgaria," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 399-418.
    44. Joel Slemrod & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1994. "Analyzing the standard deduction as a presumptive tax," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 25-34, February.
    45. Jacob A. Mortenson & Andrew Whitten, 2020. "Bunching to Maximize Tax Credits: Evidence from Kinks in the US Tax Schedule," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 402-432, August.
    46. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Slemrod, Joel & Wilson, John Douglas, 2011. "Tax policy and the missing middle: Optimal tax remittance with firm-level administrative costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9-10), pages 1036-1047, October.
    47. Áureo de Paula & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Value-Added Taxes, Chain Effects, and Informality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 195-221, October.
    48. Amy Finkelstein & Nathaniel Hendren, 2020. "Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference," NBER Working Papers 27640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves & Acar,Aysenur & Makovec,Mattia, 2019. "Do Firms Exit the Formal Economy after a Minimum Wage Hike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8749, The World Bank.
    50. Zoë Kuehn, 2014. "Tax Rates, Governance, And The Informal Economy In High-Income Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 405-430, January.
    51. Joel Slemrod, 2019. "Tax Compliance and Enforcement," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 904-954, December.
    52. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: a back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 7, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    53. repec:eme:rlec11:s0147-9121(2012)0000034007 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2016. "Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 739-798.
    55. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Martin B. Knudsen & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Søren Pedersen & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence From a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 651-692, May.
    56. Ludvig Sinander, 2019. "The converse envelope theorem," Papers 1909.11219, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    57. Jonathan Roth & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2023. "When Is Parallel Trends Sensitive to Functional Form?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 737-747, March.
    58. François Gerard & Gustavo Gonzaga, 2021. "Informal Labor and the Efficiency Cost of Social Programs: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance in Brazil," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 167-206, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    2. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Maxime Gravoueille & Matthieu Lequien & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Tax Simplicity or Simplicity of Evasion? Evidence from Self-Employment Taxes in France," NBER Working Papers 24049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Reizer, Balázs & Gáspár, Attila, 2023. "Újabb hozzászólás az ismét elmaradt minimálbérvitához [A futher comment on the minimum wage debate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 365-380.
    5. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Anna Pluta & Anna Zasova, 2023. "Keeping the best of two worlds: Linking CGE and microsimulation models for policy analysis," Working Papers 2023/01, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    7. Kim, Ji Hwan & Lee, Jungmin & Lee, Kyungho, 2023. "Minimum wage, social insurance mandate, and working hours," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 6, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    2. Anikó Bíró & Péter Elek & Dániel Prinz & László Sándor, 2024. "Tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link: the case of maternity benefits," IFS Working Papers W24/57, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    5. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    6. Colin C. Williams, 2023. "A Modern Guide to the Informal Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18668.
    7. Gareth Liu-Evans & Shalini Mitra, 2023. "Formal sector enforcement and welfare," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 706-728, June.
    8. Marcelo Bergolo & Gabriel Burdin & Mauricio De Rosa & Matias Giaccobasso & Martín Leites, 2019. "Tax bunching at the Kink in the Presence of Low Capacity of Enforcement: Evidence From Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    9. Al-Karablieh, Yazan & Koumanakos, Evangelos & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2021. "Clearing the bar: Improving tax compliance for small firms through target setting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    11. Doligalski, Paweł & Rojas, Luis E., 2023. "Optimal redistribution with a shadow economy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), May.
    12. Dina Pomeranz & José Vila-Belda, 2019. "Taking State-Capacity Research to the Field: Insights from Collaborations with Tax Authorities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 755-781, August.
    13. Dami'an Vergara, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Optimal Redistribution," Papers 2202.00839, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    14. Rubolino, Enrico, 2023. "Does weak enforcement deter tax progressivity?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    15. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski, 2022. "Unregistered micro-performers of business activity in North Macedonia: Analysis with recommendations for a policy action," Finance Think Policy Studies 2022-07/43, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    16. Clifford, Sarah & Mavrokonstantis, Panos, 2021. "Tax enforcement using a hybrid between self- and third-party reporting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Natividad, Gabriel, 2019. "Base tributaria y discontinuidades geopolíticas [Tax base and geopolitical discontinuities]," MPRA Paper 113169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Erosa, Andrés & Fuster, Luisa & Martinez, Tomás R., 2023. "Public financing with financial frictions and underground economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 20-36.
    19. Torm, Nina & Oehme, Marty, 2024. "Social protection and formalization in low- and middle-income countries: A scoping review of the literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    20. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Manaresi, Francesco & Rachedi, Omar & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2021. "Minimum Wages and Insurance within the Firm," IZA Discussion Papers 14943, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:215:y:2022:i:c:s004727272200130x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy