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The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy: An Open Economy DSGE Perspective

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Abstract

Over the course of 2018, economic activity in major advanced foreign economies and emerging markets—including the Euro area and China—decelerated noticeably. In parallel, foreign growth projections for 2019 and 2020 were revised down, signaling potentially large headwinds for the U.S economy over the medium term. In this article, we use a multi-country simulation model to quantify economic spillovers to the United States from a slowdown originating in the Euro area. Next, we compare these results with spillovers from a slowdown originating in China. We find that spillovers to the U.S. economy from a slowdown in the Euro area are sizable, mainly due to lack of monetary policy space in the region along with greater financial integration between Europe and the United States. Standard trade-related spillovers from a slowdown in China to the United States, instead, are quantitatively limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Paolo Pesenti, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy: An Open Economy DSGE Perspective," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 26(4), pages 98-111, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:89901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
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    4. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    5. Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Sheets, Nathan, 2009. "The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 173-185, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Euro area; slowdown; spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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