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Hypothetical Bias in Risk Preferences as a Driver of Hypothetical Bias in Willingness to Pay: Experimental Evidence

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  • Jinkwon Lee

    (Sogang University)

  • Uk Hwang

    (Kyungpook National University)

Abstract

This study provides new insight on the established issue of elicitation bias in hypothetical choice settings. In particular, using an experiment that elicits real and hypothetical willingness to pay for the protection of otters, we provide evidence that the observed bias is driven by those who are both uncertain about their value and exhibit hypothetical bias in risk attitudes. This finding provides a reason why calibration approaches based on follow-up certainty questions have proven useful, but also suggests a degree of caution in applying the approach. Our results favour combining uncertainty calibration with CVM-X in which hypothetical bias in risk attitudes is also taken account to correct for hypothetical bias in WTP.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinkwon Lee & Uk Hwang, 2016. "Hypothetical Bias in Risk Preferences as a Driver of Hypothetical Bias in Willingness to Pay: Experimental Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(4), pages 789-811, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:65:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-015-9926-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-015-9926-9
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    2. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M. & Oppewal, Harmen & Lancsar, Emily, 2021. "Hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments: Part II. Conceptualisation of external validity, sources and explanations of bias and effectiveness of mitigation methods," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Atozou, Baoubadi & Tamini, Lota D. & Bergeronm, Stephane & Doyon, Maurice, 2020. "Factors Explaining the Hypothetical Bias: How to Improve Models for Meta-Analyses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(2), March.
    4. Zack Dorner & Daniel A. Brent & Anke Leroux, 2019. "Preferences for Intrinsically Risky Attributes," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 95(4), pages 494-514.
    5. Moritz A. Drupp & Zachary M. Turk & Ben Groom & Jonas Heckenhahn, 2024. "Limited Substitutability, Relative Price Changes and the Uplifting of Public Natural Capital Values," CESifo Working Paper Series 11156, CESifo.
    6. Andrea Morone & Paola Tiranzoni, 2020. "Bargaining in a "Pawn Shop": A field experiment to study WTA," Framed Field Experiments 00702, The Field Experiments Website.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contingent valuation method; Hypothetical bias; Risk attitudes; Laboratory experiment; CVM-X;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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