IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nbb/ecrart/y2016mseptemberiiip81-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why is investment in the euro area continuing to show only weak recovery ?

Author

Listed:
  • P. Butzen

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • S. Cheliout

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • E. De Prest

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • S. Ide

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • W. Melyn

    (National Bank of Belgium)

Abstract

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, investments in the euro area were cut dramatically and they have not yet returned to their pre-2008 levels. Low levels of investments do not merely depress demand – a highly cyclical component – but also undermine an economy’s long-term growth potential. The article attempts to explain the recent evolution of euro area investment. More specifically, it investigates the factors hindering a capital spending revival and the European policy initiatives that have been taken to remedy the situation. From both an international and a historical perspective – i.e. compared with previous post-crisis periods – we are looking at a highly unusual state of investment’s recovery which drags on. There may possibly be a persistent component to the shortfall, in as much as it is an adjustment to previously excessive spending, particularly by households on residential property. That said, business investment has also yet to stage a major recovery. Focusing on business investment, it is apparent that subdued economic growth has combined with underutilised production resources to clearly reduce the necessity of such investment. But a weak business cycle alone does not explain business investment dynamics : this article draws on the accelerator model to demonstrate that a set of other factors also underlies the weak investment dynamics since 2012, e.g. uncertainty, financing restrictions, ongoing deleveraging and fragmentation of the financial markets. In addition to these short-term factors, a number of structural changes have taken place in the past decades, changes that may have triggered more secular trends. This is a complex theme, however, and it is unclear what the impact on capital spending has been of globalisation and the shift to a service-based society in advanced economies. Demographic trends, and particularly population ageing, are claimed by some to necessitate less investment, but one might equally argue that more capital-intensive production practices should be implemented to offset negative effects on growth. The euro area appears to be stymied in an unfavourable equilibria of slow economic growth and lagging investment. The Investment Plan for Europe attempts to break this adverse loop by increasing funding capacity through an investment fund, and by improving the general investment climate. Also known as the Juncker Plan, its aim was to generate € 315 billion of investment within three years – and a year on it looks more or less on track to achieve this aim. The same drive also saw the launch of the Capital Markets Union initiative, whose aim is to create a fully integrated European capital market in due course and which should make funding easier for SMEs. However, this initiative is still very much on the drawing board.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & E. De Prest & S. Ide & W. Melyn, 2016. "Why is investment in the euro area continuing to show only weak recovery ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 81-98, september.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:ecrart:y:2016:m:september:i:ii:p:81-98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/en/articles/why-investment-euro-area-continuing-show-only-weak-recovery
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gros, Daniel, 2014. "Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area?," CEPS Papers 9821, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Christine Lewis & Nigel Pain & Jan Stráský & Fusako Menkyna, 2014. "Investment Gaps after the Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1168, OECD Publishing.
    3. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Braunerhjelm, Pontus & Oxelheim, Lars & Thulin, Per, 2005. "The relationship between domestic and outward foreign direct investment: The role of industry-specific effects," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 677-694, December.
    6. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Maria Demertzis & Peter Pontuch & Alessandro Turrini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Relevance of Insolvency Frameworks in a High-debt Context: An EU Perspective," European Economy - Discussion Papers 032, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. W. Melyn & R. Schoonackers & P. Stinglhamber & L. Van Meensel, 2016. "Should government investment be promoted ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 99-113, september.
    9. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:119-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Herzer, Dierk & Schrooten, Mechthild, 2008. "Outward FDI and domestic investment in two industrialized countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-143, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. W. Melyn & R. Schoonackers & P. Stinglhamber & L. Van Meensel, 2016. "Should government investment be promoted ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 99-113, september.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    4. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 302-317.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    6. Peter Mayerhofer & Michael Klien, 2016. "Unternehmensinvestitionen in den österreichischen Bundesländern. Entwicklung – Struktur – Funktion regionaler Förderung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61950, January.
    7. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    8. Anubha Dhasmana, 2021. "Employment growth in the face of exchange rate uncertainty: The role of trade and foreign equity finance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 79-117, July.
    9. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    10. Ji (George) Wu & Jian Zhang & Yiwen Wu & Dongmin Kong, 2020. "When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1435-1470, June.
    11. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Khanh Hoang, 2022. "How does corporate R&D investment respond to climate policy uncertainty? Evidence from heavy emitter firms in the United States," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 936-949, July.
    13. Yang, Baochen & An, Haokai & Song, Xinyu, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and corporate inefficient investment: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    15. Zhou, Xi & Xiao, Min & Wu, Huiying & You, Jiaxing, 2024. "Does policy uncertainty travel across borders? Evidence from MNC subsidiary investment decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    16. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Lu, Man & Wang, Wei & Chen, Fengwen & Li, Hongmei, 2024. "Dynamic impacts of multidimensional uncertainty on the renminbi exchange rate: Insights from time-varying analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    19. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    20. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Tarazi, Amine, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Size, capital, and liquidity matter," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 102-118.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; accelerator model; secular trends; Juncker Plan; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:ecrart:y:2016:m:september:i:ii:p:81-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy