IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ajagec/v104y2022i2p693-716.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maize price volatility and deforestation

Author

Listed:
  • Clark Lundberg
  • Ryan Abman

Abstract

We develop a model of deforestation using a real option on agricultural land conversion and establish an important link between agricultural commodity price volatility and forest loss. Higher price volatility of staple commodities increases incentives to delay land conversion and is associated with lower levels of deforestation. Using satellite‐derived estimates of local deforestation and high‐frequency local maize prices across a panel of market catchments across 26 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, we find strong empirical evidence that maize price volatility is negatively associated with forest loss. Our findings are driven by catchments in biomes that are relatively well‐suited to maize production. Instrumenting for changes in price levels and price volatility with spatially explicit temperature and rainfall anomalies yields results consistent with our main approach. The findings highlight important tensions between agricultural price stabilization policies, conservation efforts, and environmental externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Clark Lundberg & Ryan Abman, 2022. "Maize price volatility and deforestation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 693-716, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:2:p:693-716
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12246
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12246
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ajae.12246?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy, 2012. "The planting real option in cash rent valuation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 765-776, February.
    2. Sanderson, Eleanor & Windmeijer, Frank, 2016. "A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(2), pages 212-221.
    3. Marc F. Bellemare & Yu Na Lee & David R. Just, 2020. "Producer Attitudes Toward Output Price Risk: Experimental Evidence from the Lab and from the Field," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 806-825, May.
    4. Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont, 2008. "Deforestation and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 242-262, June.
    5. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    6. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim von Braun, 2016. "Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(1), pages 172-190.
    7. Jean-Paul Chavas & David Hummels & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "The Economics of Food Price Volatility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number chav12-1.
    8. Schatzki, Todd, 2003. "Options, uncertainty and sunk costs:: an empirical analysis of land use change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 86-105, July.
    9. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1990. "Acreage Decisions Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 529-538.
    10. Obie Porteous, 2019. "High Trade Costs and Their Consequences: An Estimated Dynamic Model of African Agricultural Storage and Trade," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 327-366, October.
    11. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
    12. Sébastien Jean & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2016. "Do regional trade agreements really boost trade? Evidence from agricultural products," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(3), pages 477-499, August.
    13. Abdelmoneim H. Elnagheeb & Daniel W. Bromley, 1994. "Extensification of agriculture and deforestation: empirical evidence from Sudan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 193-200, April.
    14. Marc F. Bellemare & Christopher B. Barrett & David R. Just, 2013. "The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Volatility: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 877-899.
    15. Gülcan Önel & Barry K. Goodwin, 2015. "Real Options Approach to Inter-Sectoral Migration of U.S. Farm Labor," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1520-1520.
    16. Julie Subervie, 2008. "The Variable Response of Agricultural Supply to World Price Instability in Developing Countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 72-92, February.
    17. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    18. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    19. Isik, Murat & Yang, Wanhong, 2004. "An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty and Irreversibility on Farmer Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-18, August.
    20. Feng Song & Jinhua Zhao & Scott M. Swinton, 2011. "Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 764-779.
    21. Wheeler, David & Hammer, Dan & Kraft, Robin & Dasgupta, Susmita & Blankespoor, Brian, 2013. "Economic dynamics and forest clearing: A spatial econometric analysis for Indonesia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 85-96.
    22. Richard E. Just, 1974. "An Investigation of the Importance of Risk in Farmers' Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 14-25.
    23. Geltner, David & Riddiough, Timothy & Stojanovic, Srdjan, 1996. "Insights on the Effect of Land Use Choice: The Perpetual Option on the Best of Two Underlying Assets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-50, January.
    24. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
    25. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
    26. Richards, Peter D., 2012. "Exchange Rates, Soybean Supply Response, and Deforestation in South America," Graduate Research Master's Degree Plan B Papers 138606, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    27. Baron, David P, 1970. "Price Uncertainty, Utility, and Industry Equilibrium in Pure Competition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 463-480, October.
    28. Abman, Ryan & Carney, Conor, 2020. "Agricultural productivity and deforestation: Evidence from input subsidies and ethnic favoritism in Malawi," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    29. Lin Sun & Michael R. Reed, 2010. "Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Trade Creation and Trade Diversion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1363.
    30. Payal Shah & Amy W. Ando, 2016. "Permanent and Temporary Policy Incentives for Conservation under Stochastic Returns from Competing Land Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1074-1094.
    31. Marcel Fafchamps, 1992. "Cash Crop Production, Food Price Volatility, and Rural Market Integration in the Third World," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 90-99.
    32. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    33. Rudolf, Robert, 2019. "The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-54.
    34. Porteous, Obie, 2020. "Trade and agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    35. Jason H. Grant & Dayton M. Lambert, 2008. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 765-782.
    36. Jorge Hargrave & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2013. "Economic Causes of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Panel Data Analysis for the 2000s," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 471-494, April.
    37. Krause, Mark A. & Koo, Won W., 1996. "Acreage Responses To Expected Revenues And Price Risk For Minor Oilseeds And Program Crops In The Northern Plains," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-16, December.
    38. Assunção, Juliano & Gandour, Clarissa & Rocha, Rudi, 2015. "Deforestation slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: prices or policies?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 697-722, December.
    39. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    40. Israel Finkelshtain & James A. Chalfant, 1991. "Marketed Surplus under Risk: Do Peasants Agree with Sandmo?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 557-567.
    41. Ryan Abman & Clark Lundberg, 2020. "Does Free Trade Increase Deforestation? The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 35-72.
    42. Glenn Pederson & Tianyu Zou, 2009. "Using real options to evaluate ethanol plant expansion decisions," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 69(1), pages 23-35, May.
    43. Jonah Busch & Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon, 2017. "What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 3-23.
    44. Yu Na Lee, 2021. "Does Aversion to Price Risk Drive Migration? Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1268-1293, August.
    45. Albers, Heidi J., 1996. "Modeling Ecological Constraints on Tropical Forest Management: Spatial Interdependence, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-94, January.
    46. Leblois, Antoine & Damette, Olivier & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2017. "What has Driven Deforestation in Developing Countries Since the 2000s? Evidence from New Remote-Sensing Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 82-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krah, Kwabena, 2022. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forestloss: evidence from Ghana," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322247, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Yacouba Kassouri, 2024. "The Rise of Transnational Financial Crimes and Tropical Deforestation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(10), pages 2795-2831, October.
    4. Magalhães de Oliveira, Gustavo & Sellare, Jorge & Cisneros, Elias & Börner, Jan, 2024. "Mind your language: Political signaling and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Discussion Papers 333334, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    5. Abman, Ryan & Lundberg, Clark, 2024. "Contracting, market access and deforestation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2024. "Fertilizer prices and deforestation in Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Abman, Ryan & Lundberg, Clark, 2022. "Market Access and Deforestation," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322251, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Leal, Alan & Bugarin, Maurício, 2024. "There is Trouble with the Trees: How to Avoid Trade-Induced Deforestation?," TD NEREUS 5-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Krah, Kwabena, 2022. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forestloss: evidence from Ghana," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322247, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Luca Di Corato, 2018. "Rural land development under hyperbolic discounting: a real option approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 167-182, July.
    4. Di Corato, Luca & Brady, Mark V., 2019. "Passive farming and land development: A real options approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 32-46.
    5. Luca Di Corato & Dimitrios Zormpas, 2022. "Investment in farming under uncertainty and decoupled support: a real options approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(4), pages 876-909.
    6. Boyd, Chris M. & Bellemare, Marc F., 2022. "Why not insure prices? Experimental evidence from Peru," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 580-631.
    7. Abman,Ryan Michael & Lundberg,Clark Christopher & Ruta,Michele, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Environmental Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9601, The World Bank.
    8. Barrett, Christopher B., 1996. "On price risk and the inverse farm size-productivity relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 193-215, December.
    9. Di Corato, Luca & Hess, Sebastian, 2013. "Farmland Investments in Africa: What’s the Deal?," Working Paper Series 2013:10, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    10. Barrett, Christopher B., 1999. "Stochastic food prices and slash-and-burn agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 161-176, May.
    11. David S. Bullock & Philip Garcia & Kie‐Yup Shin, 2005. "Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non‐neutrality," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Marc F. Bellemare & Yu Na Lee & David R. Just, 2020. "Producer Attitudes Toward Output Price Risk: Experimental Evidence from the Lab and from the Field," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 806-825, May.
    13. Boyd, Chris M., 2020. "Urgent Yet Ineffective? The Welfare Impacts of Potato Price Stabilization in Peru," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304293, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei & Yu, Fan & Myers, Robert J., 2013. "The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1755-1770.
    15. Corato, Luca Di & Hess, Sebastian, 2013. "A Dynamic Stochastic Programming Framework for Modeling Large Scale Land Deals in Developing Countries," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150190, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Krah, Kwabena, 2023. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forest loss: evidence from Ghana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Bellemare, Marc F. & Lee, Yu Na & Novak, Lindsey, 2021. "Contract farming as partial insurance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    18. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    19. Jeffrey Stokes, 2012. "The value of the option to preserve farm real estate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 162-175, January.
    20. Keles, Derya & Choumert-Nkolo, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Nazindigouba Kéré, Eric, 2018. "Does the expansion of biofuels encroach on the forest?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 75-82.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:2:p:693-716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8276 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy