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Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Graeme Blair
  • C. Christine Fair
  • Neil Malhotra
  • Jacob N. Shapiro

Abstract

Policy debates on strategies to end extremist violence frequently cite poverty as a root cause of support for the perpetrating groups. There is little evidence to support this contention, particularly in the Pakistani case. Pakistan's urban poor are more exposed to the negative externalities of militant violence and may in fact be less supportive of the groups. To test these hypotheses we conducted a 6,000‐person, nationally representative survey of Pakistanis that measured affect toward four militant organizations. By applying a novel measurement strategy, we mitigate the item nonresponse and social desirability biases that plagued previous studies due to the sensitive nature of militancy. Contrary to expectations, poor Pakistanis dislike militants more than middle‐class citizens. This dislike is strongest among the urban poor, particularly those in violent districts, suggesting that exposure to terrorist attacks reduces support for militants. Long‐standing arguments tying support for violent organizations to income may require substantial revision.

Suggested Citation

  • Graeme Blair & C. Christine Fair & Neil Malhotra & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2013. "Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 30-48, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:57:y:2013:i:1:p:30-48
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00604.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero & Adrienne LeBas, 2020. "Does electoral violence affect vote choice and willingness to vote? Conjoint analysis of a vignette experiment," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 77-92, January.
    2. Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsgård & Tarik M. Yousef, 2023. "The middle class and the modalities of political protest: evidence from the Arab world," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(4), pages 684-701, July.
    3. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
    4. Kiendrebeogo,Youssouf & Ianchovichina,Elena & Kiendrebeogo,Youssouf & Ianchovichina,Elena, 2016. "Who supports violent extremism in developing countries ? analysis of attitudes based on value surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7691, The World Bank.
    5. Koopmans, Ruud & Kanol, Eylem & Stolle, Dietlind, 2021. "Scriptural legitimation and the mobilisation of support for religious violence: experimental evidence across three religions and seven countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47(7), pages 1498-1516.
    6. Kaila, Heidi & Singhal, Saurabh & Tuteja, Divya, 2020. "Development programs, security, and violence reduction: Evidence from an insurgency in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Desai, Raj M. & Olofsgård, Anders & Yousef, Tarik, 2018. "Signaling Dissent: Political Behavior in the Arab World," SITE Working Paper Series 45, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    8. Guardado,Jenny & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "The Seasonality of Conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9373, The World Bank.
    9. Schutte, Sebastian & Ruhe, Constantin & Linke, Andrew, 2020. "How indiscriminate violence fuels religious conflict: Evidence from Kenya," SocArXiv kngq2, Center for Open Science.
    10. Nicola Limodio, 2022. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1711-1742, July.
    11. Ummad Mazhar & Fahd Rehman, 2019. "Diehard or delicate? Violence and young firm performance in a developing country," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 236-247, October.
    12. Ummad Mazhar, 2021. "Women empowerment and insecurity: firm-level evidence," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 43-53, January.
    13. Leonardo Bursztyn & Michael Callen & Bruno Ferman & Saad Gulzar & Ali Hasanain & Noam Yuchtman, 2014. "Identifying Ideology: Experimental Evidence on Anti-Americanism in Pakistan," NBER Working Papers 20153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Limodio, Nicola, 2019. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment and Attacks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Working Papers 287, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    15. Mikhail A Alexseev & Henry E Hale, 2020. "Crimea come what may: Do economic sanctions backfire politically?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(2), pages 344-359, March.
    16. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin & J. Terrence McCabe & Jaroslav Tir, 2018. "Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1544-1578, August.
    17. Christoph Mikulaschek & Saurabh Pant & Beza Tesfaye, 2020. "Winning Hearts and Minds in Civil Wars: Governance, Leadership Change, and Support for Violent Groups in Iraq," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 773-790, October.
    18. World Bank Group, 2015. "Toward Solutions for Youth Employment," World Bank Publications - Reports 23261, The World Bank Group.
    19. Nicholas Haas & Prabin B. Khadka, 2020. "If They Endorse It, I Can't Trust It: How Outgroup Leader Endorsements Undercut Public Support for Civil War Peace Settlements," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 982-1000, October.
    20. Güneş Murat Tezcür & Clayton Besaw, 2020. "Jihadist waves: Syria, the Islamic State, and the changing nature of foreign fighters," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 215-231, March.

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