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The Economic Effects of Climate Change in Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium

Author

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  • Rudik, Ivan
  • Lyn, Gary
  • Tan, Weiliang
  • Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

Abstract

We develop a dynamic-spatial equilibrium model to quantify the economic effects of climate change with a focus on the United States. We find that climate change reduces US welfare by 4% and global welfare by over 20%. Market-based adaptation through trade and labor reallocation increases US welfare, but with substantial spatial heterogeneity. Adaptation through labor reallocation and trade are complementary: together they boost welfare by 50% more than their individual effects. We additionally develop a new dynamic envelope theorem method for measuring welfare impacts in reduced form and to validate our quantitative model. We find that welfare distributions from our two approaches are consistent, indicating that our quantitative model captures the first-order factors for measuring the distributional impacts of climate change. The level and distribution of the economic impacts of climate change depends the sectoral and spatial structure of the economy, and the extent to which different markets can adapt.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2022. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change in Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium," Conference papers 333486, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333486
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333486/files/11266.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2023. "Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 2023-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy," Working Papers 2024.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade;

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