IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1176.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Madeira

Abstract

Chile implemented large pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic. Afterwards, Chile increased non-contributory benefits in a quasi-universal scheme. Simulating future pensions, I show that the average loss in contributory pension income is 27.9%, with losses of 23.9% and 31.4% for men and women, respectively. After accounting for public transfers, the average loss in total pension income is just 6.2%, with losses of 7.5% and 5.2% for men and women, respectively. Current retirees lost just 1.1% of their pension income after accounting for the government transfers. The state may end up covering 92% of the total value of the pension withdrawals through increased transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Madeira, 2024. "The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile," BIS Working Papers 1176, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1176.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1176.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2007. "Unemployment insurance in Chile: Does it stabilize the business cycle?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 473-488.
    2. Wang-Ly, Nathan & Newell, Ben R., 2022. "Allowing early access to retirement savings: Lessons from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 716-733.
    3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Jessica Pan & Wenlan Qian, 2020. "Age of Decision: Pension Savings Withdrawal and Consumption and Debt Response," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 43-69, January.
    5. Galiani, Sebastian & Gertler, Paul & Bando, Rosangela, 2016. "Non-contributory pensions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 47-58.
    6. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Fuentes & Gonzalo García & José I. Llodrá, 2020. "Understanding domestic savings: an empirical approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(9), pages 905-928, February.
    7. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    8. Olivera, Javier & Valderrama, José A., 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12492, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Marcela Parada-Contzen, 2020. "Crowding-out in savings decisions, portfolio default adoption and home ownership: evidence from the Chilean retirement system," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 543-569, June.
    10. Marika Santoro, 2017. "Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs," IMF Working Papers 2017/053, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Marie Briere & James Poterba & Ariane Szafarz, 2022. "Precautionary Liquidity and Retirement Saving," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 147-150, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Madeira, Carlos, 2024. "The effect of the Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of the future retirees and its fiscal costs," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    2. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The long term impact of Chilean policy reforms on savings and pensions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    4. Bateman, Hazel & Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Liu, Junhao & Newell, Ben R. & Thorp, Susan, 2023. "Determinants of early-access to retirement savings: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Jing You & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Intergenerational Impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 47-95, December.
    6. Madeira, Carlos & Salazar, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of monetary policy on a labor market with heterogeneous workers: The case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    7. Madeira, Carlos, 2023. "The evolution of consumption inequality and risk-insurance in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Kang, Ji Young & Park, Sojung & Ahn, Seoyeon, 2022. "The effect of social pension on consumption among older adults in Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    9. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    11. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    12. Kim, H. Youn, 2017. "The permanent income hypothesis, transitional dynamics, and excess sensitivity of consumption," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-25.
    13. Laureti, Carolina & Szafarz, Ariane, 2023. "Banking regulation and costless commitment contracts for time-inconsistent agents," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Steffen Andersen & Philippe d'Astous & Jimmy Martínez-Correa & Stephen H. Shore, 2018. "Responses to Savings Commitments: Evidence from Mortgage Run-offs," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 1, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    15. Sof'a Gallardo & Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The role of financial surveys for economic research and policy making in emerging markets," Chapters, in: Duc K. Nguyen (ed.), Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets, chapter 36, pages 676-686, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Peter Diamond, 2011. "Unemployment, Vacancies, Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1045-1072, June.
    17. Carlos Madeira, 2019. "Adverse selection, loan access and default in the Chilean consumer debt market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 838, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Tiago Cavalcanti & Bruno Martins & Cezar Santos & Joseph Kaboski, 2018. "Dispersion in Financing Costs and Development," 2018 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Jason S. Scott & John B. Shoven & Sita N. Slavov & John G. Watson, 2022. "Is automatic enrollment consistent with a life cycle model?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 9-20, January.
    20. Song, Quanyun & Li, Jie & Wu, Yu & Yin, Zhichao, 2020. "Accessibility of financial services and household consumption in China: Evidence from micro data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension wealth; Covid pandemic; fiscal costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy