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The impact of EMU on growth and employment

Author

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  • Ray Barrell
  • Sylvia Gottschalk
  • Dawn Holland
  • Ehsan Khoman
  • Iana Liadze
  • Olga Pomerantz

Abstract

This study addresses and evaluates the impacts of the introduction of the euro on both actual and potential output and employment. In order to achieve this, a descriptive and analytical examination of developments before and after the launch of the euro is undertaken, with comparisons drawn between countries that are EMU members and non-EMU members. There are several channels through which the euro may have affected growth and employment: greater transparency and its impact on competitiveness and the effectiveness of the single market; integration of financial markets, which may raise productivity; and a more stable macroeconomic environment, which affects risk and investment decisions. We analyse the impact of each of these channels on the drivers of growth, after controlling for factors such as workforce skills, research base, openness, demographic developments and structural reform on the evolution of output. The central result of our study is that EMU affects output growth directly and also promotes reductions in output and real effective exchange rate volatility and thereby influences the accumulation of productive capital. Many potential concerns preceding the launch of the euro seem to have been unfounded, and our work suggests that the effects of EMU that we observe have been beneficial for economic growth and employment overall. Our analysis suggests that the direct positive effects of EMU are likely to be larger in the core countries, despite their recent slow growth, and that EMU may lead to agglomeration of activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0318
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    1. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    2. Patrick Leblond, 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis and the European Integration Project," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-55, CIRANO.
    3. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "What Does the 1930s' Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 713-727, July.
    4. Ionel Bostan & Otilia-Roxana Oprea & Ovidiu Stoica, 2020. "Approaching Monetary Integration in the Context of the Imperative to Ensure the Sustainable Growth in the EU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Crafts, Nicholas, 2013. "Long-Term Growth in Europe: What Difference does the Crisis Make?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 224, pages 14-28, May.
    6. Andini, Corrado & Cabral, Ricardo, 2012. "Further Austerity and Wage Cuts Will Worsen the Euro Crisis," IZA Policy Papers 37, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Ewald Nowotny, 2012. "Der Euro - Vergangenheit, Gegenwart, Zukunft," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 38(2), pages 273-284.
    8. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "Western Europe's Growth Prospects: an Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 8827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Christian Beer, 2011. "Literature Review on the Economic Effects of the Euro on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22-34.
    10. Ioannatos, Petros E., 2021. "Systematic growth asymmetry in the Eurozone? Evidence from a natural experiment," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.
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