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Evaluating the market potential of innovations: A structured survey of diffusion models

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Frenzel Baudisch

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Economics, Evolutionary Economics Unit)

  • Hariolf Grupp

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research)

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic methodology to identify general innovation diffusion patterns in a given case study: First, an analytical framework is introduced which structures a review of innovation diffusion research. This framework may be used to structure the analysis of a case study. Second, a classification of innovation diffusion models is developed by focusing on the analytical hypotheses and stylized facts, which they assume. This categorization allows selecting appropriate models for a given case study based on the matching of the model's hypotheses and case study's characteristics. This provides an structured approach to allow innovators to evaluate ex-ante the market potential and the diffusion process, i.e. commercial success of their new product or practice. The paper concludes with critical recommendations on the use of innovation diffusion models. Based on the systematic approach to survey diffusion models, future research opportunities are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Frenzel Baudisch & Hariolf Grupp, 2006. "Evaluating the market potential of innovations: A structured survey of diffusion models," Jenaer Schriften zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft (Expired!) 21/2006, Friedrich Schiller University of Jena, School of of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:jen:jenasw:2006-21
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard R Nelson & Alexander Peterhansl & Bhaven Sampat, 2004. "Why and how innovations get adopted: a tale of four models," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 13(5), pages 679-699, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation diffusion model; case study methodology; taxonomy; forecasting;
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