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Linkages between Excess Currency and Stock Market Returns:Granger Causality in Mean and Variance

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  • Eirini Syngelaki

    (Economics,Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal linkages between monetary and equity market integration of the new member states (NMS) as well as of the non economic monetary union (Non- EMU) member states with the euro zone, after the official launch of the euro. Granger causality in mean and in variance tests are utilized. Our results reveal a number of interesting facts that can be summarized as follows. Firstly, there is little evidence of causality in mean effects for all countries. Secondly, there are significant spill over effects for the NMS. Thirdly, the excess currency return is the chief variable which leads the excess stock market return volatility of the NMS. Our findings have obvious implications for both investors and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Eirini Syngelaki, 2010. "Linkages between Excess Currency and Stock Market Returns:Granger Causality in Mean and Variance," Economics Department Working Paper Series n209-10.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n209-10.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary market integration; equity market integration; Granger causality in-mean and in-variance; AR; Univariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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