IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/25899.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Durevall, Dick
  • Loening, Josef

Abstract

The purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will decrease substantially though inflation inertia may prevent a rapid stabilization of food prices. One of the main driving forces behind domestic inflation is agricultural output growth. While exchange rate and monetary policies can make a significant difference, it is crucial to take into consideration the development of the domestic cereal market. If international prices would start increasing again, they would to have a strong impact on Ethiopia, and the model predictions will not be valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef, 2009. "Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 25899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25899/1/MPRA_paper_25899.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Economic Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10740.
    2. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    3. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    3. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    4. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    5. Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 12625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/36, European University Institute.
    7. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    8. Majiwa, Eucabeth Bosibori Opande & Lee, Boon & Wilson, Clevo, 2015. "Multi-lateral multi-output measurement of productivity: the case of African agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212769, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Ghazala Azmat & Marc Möller, 2018. "The Distribution of Talent Across Contests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 471-509, March.
    10. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2008. "Modelling the Rand-Dollar Future Spot Rates: The Kalman Filter Approach," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 60-75.
    11. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 20-38, February.
    12. Schedelik, Michael & Nölke, Andreas & May, Christian & Gomes, Alexandre, 2022. "Dependency revisited: Commodities, commodity-related capital flows and growth models in emerging economies," IPE Working Papers 201/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. Alex Tagliabracci, 2020. "Asymmetry in the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1270, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
    15. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    16. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 57-72, Abril.
    17. Simplice Asongu, 2015. "Rational Asymmetric Development: Transfer Pricing and Sub-Saharan Africa’s Extreme Poverty Tragedy," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 15/017, African Governance and Development Institute..
    18. Mr. Ludvig Söderling, 2002. "Escaping the Curse of Oil? The Case of Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2002/093, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    20. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Forecast; Ethiopia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy