IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/udt/wpecon/2024_05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Regime Separation in Markov-Switching Quantile Regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Montes-Rojas
  • Zacharias Psaradakis
  • Martín Sola

Abstract

We consider models for conditional quantiles in which parameters are subject to discrete changes governed by an exogenous, unobservable Markov chain. We argue that all quantiles of the conditional distribution of the response variable should share the Markov regimes. This gives an unambiguous classification of regimes and allows the capture of quantile-specific characteristics conditionally on the hidden regimes. The potential of our approach is illustrated using a quantile autoregression for U.S. inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martín Sola, 2024. "On Regime Separation in Markov-Switching Quantile Regressions," Department of Economics Working Papers 2024_05, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2024_05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.utdt.edu/download.php?fname=_173100612458011300.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 137-164, September.
    2. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    3. Xiaochun Liu, 2016. "Markov switching quantile autoregression," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(4), pages 356-395, November.
    4. Antonio F. Galvao JR. & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Sung Y. Park, 2013. "Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 307-321, April.
    5. Oka, Tatsushi & Qu, Zhongjun, 2011. "Estimating structural changes in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 248-267, June.
    6. Machado, José A.F., 1993. "Robust Model Selection and M-Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 478-493, June.
    7. Ye, Wuyi & Zhu, Yangguang & Wu, Yuehua & Miao, Baiqi, 2016. "Markov regime-switching quantile regression models and financial contagion detection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 21-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yunmi Kim & Lijuan Huo & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2020. "Dealing with Markov-Switching Parameters in Quantile Regression Models," Working papers 2020rwp-166, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    2. Xiaochun Liu, 2017. "An integrated macro‐financial risk‐based approach to the stressed capital requirement," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 86-98, September.
    3. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    5. Weichi Wu & Zhou Zhou, 2017. "Nonparametric Inference for Time-Varying Coefficient Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 98-109, January.
    6. repec:wyi:journl:002126 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Guodong Li & Yang Li & Chih-Ling Tsai, 2015. "Quantile Correlations and Quantile Autoregressive Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 246-261, March.
    8. Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Forecasting energy prices: Quantile‐based risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, January.
    9. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk with regime switching in tails," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 55-72.
    10. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "Dynamic quantile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-205, November.
    11. Lijuan Huo & Tae-Hwan Kim & Yunmi Kim, 2013. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Quantile Regression Models," Working papers 2013rwp-54, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    12. Anil K. Bera & Antonio F. Galvao Jr. & Gabriel V. Montes-Rojas & Sung Y. Park, 2014. "Which Quantile is the Most Informative? Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy and Quantile Regression," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kaddour Hadri & William Mikhail (ed.), Econometric Methods and Their Applications in Finance, Macro and Related Fields, chapter 7, pages 167-199, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Haowen Bao & Zongwu Cai & Yuying Sun & Shouyang Wang, 2023. "Penalized Model Averaging for High Dimensional Quantile Regressions," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202302, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2023.
    14. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    15. Wolters Maik H. & Tillmann Peter, 2015. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 161-182, April.
    16. Zeng, Zijian & Li, Meng, 2021. "Bayesian median autoregression for robust time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 1000-1010.
    17. de Castro, Luciano & Galvao, Antonio F. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel, 2020. "Quantile selection in non-linear GMM quantile models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Xu, Xiu & Wang, Weining & Shin, Yongcheol, 2020. "Dynamic Spatial Network Quantile Autoregression," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-024, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    19. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2010. "Specification tests of parametric dynamic conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 209-221, November.
    20. Liu Xiaochun & Luger Richard, 2018. "Markov-switching quantile autoregression: a Gibbs sampling approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1, April.
    21. Russo, Emanuele & Foster-McGregor, Neil & Verspagen, Bart, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," MERIT Working Papers 2019-026, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov Switching; Quantile Regressions.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2024_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: María Cecilia Lafuente (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deutdar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy