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How Fast Are Prices in Japan Falling?

Author

Listed:
  • Satoshi Imai

    (Statistics Bureau of Japan)

  • Chihiro Shimizu

    (Reitaku University; University of British Columbia)

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics,University of Tokyo)

Abstract

The consumer price inflation rate in Japan has been below zero since the mid-1990s. However, despite the presence of a substantial output gap, the rate of deflation has been much smaller than that observed in the United States during the Great Depression. Given this, doubts have been raised regarding the accuracy of Japan’s official inflation estimates. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent estimates of the inflation rate depend on the methodology adopted. Our specific focus is on how inflation estimates depend on the method of outlet, product, and price sampling employed. For the analysis, we use daily scanner data on prices and quantities for all products sold at about 200 supermarkets over the last ten years. We regard this dataset as the “universe” and send out (virtual) price collectors to conduct sampling following more than sixty different sampling rules. We find that the officially released outcome can be reproduced when employing a sampling rule similar to the one adopted by the Statistics Bureau. However, we obtain numbers quite different from the official ones when we employ different rules. The largest rate of deflation we find using a particular rule is about 1 percent per year, which is twice as large as the official number, suggesting the presence of substantial upward-bias in the official inflation rate. Nonetheless, our results show that the rate of deflation over the last decade is still small relative to that in the United States during the Great Depression, indicating that Japan’s deflation is moderate.

Suggested Citation

  • Satoshi Imai & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2012. "How Fast Are Prices in Japan Falling?," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 001, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Oct 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2007. "Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 169-206, December.
    2. Kenn Ariga & Kenji Matsui, 2003. "Mismeasurement of the CPI," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 89-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. David Fenwick & Adrian Ball & Peter Morgan, 2003. "Price Collection and Quality Assurance of Item Sampling in the Retail Prices Index.How Can Scanner Data Help?," NBER Chapters, in: Scanner Data and Price Indexes, pages 67-87, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Magnus Blomström & Jennifer Corbett & Fumio Hayashi & Anil Kashyap, 2003. "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blom03-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jessie Handbury & Tsutomu Watanabe & David E. Weinstein, 2013. "How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 19504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Replicating Japan's CPI Using Scanner Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-364, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period," CARF F-Series CARF-F-320, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Hajime Tomura, 2016. "Investment Horizon and Repo in the Over‐the‐Counter Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 145-164, February.
    5. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Replicating Japan’s CPI Using Scanner Data," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 054, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "We construct a Törnqvist daily price index using Japanese point of sale (POS) scannerdata spanning from 1988 to 2013. We find the following. First, the POS based inflation rate tends to be about 0.5 ," CARF F-Series CARF-F-342, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    8. Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 020, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 008, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Jun 2013.
    10. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 69-89, January.

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