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Post-Crisis Slow Recovery and Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Daisuke Ikeda

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.)

  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.)

Abstract

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession, slow recoveries have been observed and slowdowns in total factor productivity (TFP) growth have been measured in many economies. This paper develops a model that can describe a slow recovery resulting from an adverse financial shock in the presence of an endogenous mechanism of TFP growth, and examines how monetary policy should react to the financial shock in terms of social welfare. It is shown that in the face of the financial shocks, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much more substantial than in the model where TFP growth is exogenously given. Moreover, compared with the welfare-maximizing rule, a strict inflation or price-level targeting rule induces a sizable welfare loss because it has no response to output, whereas a nominal GDP growth or level targeting rule performs well, although it causes high interest-rate volatility. In the presence of the endogenous TFP growth mechanism, it is crucial to take into account a welfare loss from a permanent decline in consumption caused by a slowdown in TFP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Daisuke Ikeda & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Post-Crisis Slow Recovery and Monetary Policy," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 041, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial shock; Endogenous TFP growth; Slow recovery; Monetary policy; Welfare cost of business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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