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Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Die spürbare Dämpfung der Konjunktur in den Vereinigten Staaten infolge der Immobilienmarktkrise dürfte bis ins Jahr 2009 anhalten. Ein Vergleich mit den Verläufen von historischen Immobilienmarktabschwüngen in 15 Industrieländern sowie eine Analyse auf Basis eines vektorautoregressiven Modells lassen erwarten, dass sich die Wohnungsbaurezession wohl bis Mitte 2009 fortsetzten wird. Für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion deuten alle Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass vor allem im ersten Halbjahr 2008 mit einer schwachen Entwicklung zu rechnen ist; dass es dabei zu einem deutlichen Rückgang der Produktion in beiden Quartalen kommt, ist jedoch nicht zwingend. Über den gesamten Immobilienmarktabschwung betrachtet, wird die Konjunktur aufgrund der starken Entwicklung während des vergangenen Sommerhalbjahres wahrscheinlich weniger in Mitleidenschaft gezogen werden als im Durchschnitt der historischen Krisen. Hierfür spricht nicht zuletzt das sehr niedrige Realzinsniveau.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf," Kiel Discussion Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    2. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilfried Rickels & Linda Kleemann & Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson & Sebastian Petrick, 2010. "Konjunktur für den Klimaschutz? Klima- und Wachstumswirkung weltweiter Konjunkturprogramme," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 65(2), pages 129-166, June.
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Euroraum in der Rezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28683, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & van Roye, Björn, 2008. "Abkühlung der Weltkonjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4305, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Estimating the shape of economic crises under heterogeneity," Kiel Working Papers 1520, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2008: Folgen der US-Immobilienkrise belasten Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(08), pages 03-71, April.
    6. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn, 2008. "Deutlich verlangsamte Expansion der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28755, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Weltweite konjunkturelle Auswirkungen von Immobilienkrisen," Kiel Discussion Papers 458, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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