The terminology of "fragile states" has come under criticism for lumping together under... more The terminology of "fragile states" has come under criticism for lumping together under one term countries with strikingly different conditions. Instead, scholars have suggested to distinguish various dimensions of fragility and begun to group countries according to those dimensions or functions, including such aspects as state authority, the capacity to provide basic services and the legitimacy of state institutions. All known groupings, however, while heuristically useful, suffer from a common methodological problem: membership in any of the groups is contingent upon arbitrarily chosen threshold values. Slight changes of threshold values can disrupt formerly coherent groups. Against this background, the paper follows a different path to identify sets of fragile states. It constructs country groupings based on empirical data rather than theoretical considerations only. Starting with a three-dimensional model of state fragility and using "mixture models", we empl...
This paper analyzes the impact of both the long-term presence and additional influxes of refugees... more This paper analyzes the impact of both the long-term presence and additional influxes of refugees on the local population in Uganda. Uganda has a unique legal framework of local integration which makes it an interesting case study. Refugees are allowed to work and move freely. The political aim is to integrate them economically and socially into the host communities. The impact of this approach on Ugandan households’ objective and subjective welfare as well as their access to public services is the focus of this study. Two different household surveys covering the years 2002–10 are used in order to employ a difference-in-differences approach. In doing so, the natural experiment of two sudden inflows is exploited, while simultaneously controlling for the long-term trends in refugee numbers. The findings presented here suggest that the Ugandan population living near refugee settlements benefits both in terms of consumption and public service provisions. However, their negative perceptions regarding their own economic situation and their alienation from their national state in favor of their ethnic identity contradict this objective improvement of livelihoods. This is the first study to empirically analyze the effect of a long-term presence of displaced populations on local communities. With refugee situations becoming increasingly protracted, the findings offer important policy insights and point toward an interesting new field of research.
This conceptual and methodological article makes the case for a multidimensional empirical typolo... more This conceptual and methodological article makes the case for a multidimensional empirical typology of state fragility. It presents a framework that defines fragile statehood as deficiencies in one or more of the core functions of the state: authority, capacity and legitimacy. Unlike available indices of state fragility, it suggests a route towards operationalisation that maintains this multidimensionality. The methodology presented should help in future research to identify clusters of countries that exhibit similar constellations of statehood, whereby ‘constellation’ refers to the specific mix of characteristics across the three dimensions. Such an identification of empirical types would fulfil a demand that exists both in academic research and among policy circles for finding a more realistic model of fragility at an intermediate level between single-case analyses and the far-too-broad category of state fragility.
CESIfo Working Paper No. 5419 (2015) Co-authored with Axel Dreher, 2015
This article investigates the effect of natural resources on whether ethno-political groups choos... more This article investigates the effect of natural resources on whether ethno-political groups choose to pursue their goals with non-violent as compared to violent means, distinguishing terrorism from insurgencies. It is hypothesized that whether or not the extraction of fossil fuels sparks violence depends both on the group’s characteristics and the state’s reaction. Data are taken from the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROB) project, covering 118 organizations in 13 countries of the Middle East and North Africa over the 1980-2004 period. The multinomial logit models combine group- and country-specific information and show that ethno-political groups are more likely to resort to rebellion rather than using non-violent means or becoming terrorists when representing regions rich in oil. This effect is enhanced for groups already enjoying regional autonomy or being supported by a foreign state but can be mitigated by power sharing arrangements.
The situation of refugees all over the world gets increasingly protracted, as civil wars in their... more The situation of refugees all over the world gets increasingly protracted, as civil wars in their home countries are not resolved. Especially in developing countries, the sudden
inflow and long-term presence of refugees can represent a
significant strain on infrastructure and markets. Uganda has an exemplary legal framework in its Refugee Act aiming at the economic independence from aid of refugees and the inclusion of public services for hosts and the displaced.
Three waves of two different household surveys are used, in order to employ a difference-in-differences approach. In doing so, the natural experiment of two sudden inflows is exploited, while simultaneously controlling for long-term trends in refugee numbers. The findings presented here suggest that Uganda can benefit from its decades long experience in hosting refugees as well as its policy framework when it comes to the economic welfare and the public service provision of its nationals. Yet, there are small warning signals regarding social integration. This could motivate policy makers to look further into this issue and possibly increase efforts to reduce prejudices between the groups.
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, empirically, state fragility – conceptualised ... more The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, empirically, state fragility – conceptualised as a multi-dimensional phenomenon along the categories of authority, capacity and legitimacy – comes in several distinct configurations, yet that the number of such configurations is rather limited. We suggest that this finding has useful, previously unexplored implications for policy design vis-à-vis fragile states. We do not intend to call into question the necessity of country-specific analysis. A better grasp of “typical” forms of fragility, however, should help development agencies to better prepare for the types of situations they are most likely to be confronted with. The final section of the paper explores some of the practical implications that can be derived from our classification.
The terminology of "fragile states" has come under criticism for lumping together under... more The terminology of "fragile states" has come under criticism for lumping together under one term countries with strikingly different conditions. Instead, scholars have suggested to distinguish various dimensions of fragility and begun to group countries according to those dimensions or functions, including such aspects as state authority, the capacity to provide basic services and the legitimacy of state institutions. All known groupings, however, while heuristically useful, suffer from a common methodological problem: membership in any of the groups is contingent upon arbitrarily chosen threshold values. Slight changes of threshold values can disrupt formerly coherent groups. Against this background, the paper follows a different path to identify sets of fragile states. It constructs country groupings based on empirical data rather than theoretical considerations only. Starting with a three-dimensional model of state fragility and using "mixture models", we empl...
This paper analyzes the impact of both the long-term presence and additional influxes of refugees... more This paper analyzes the impact of both the long-term presence and additional influxes of refugees on the local population in Uganda. Uganda has a unique legal framework of local integration which makes it an interesting case study. Refugees are allowed to work and move freely. The political aim is to integrate them economically and socially into the host communities. The impact of this approach on Ugandan households’ objective and subjective welfare as well as their access to public services is the focus of this study. Two different household surveys covering the years 2002–10 are used in order to employ a difference-in-differences approach. In doing so, the natural experiment of two sudden inflows is exploited, while simultaneously controlling for the long-term trends in refugee numbers. The findings presented here suggest that the Ugandan population living near refugee settlements benefits both in terms of consumption and public service provisions. However, their negative perceptions regarding their own economic situation and their alienation from their national state in favor of their ethnic identity contradict this objective improvement of livelihoods. This is the first study to empirically analyze the effect of a long-term presence of displaced populations on local communities. With refugee situations becoming increasingly protracted, the findings offer important policy insights and point toward an interesting new field of research.
This conceptual and methodological article makes the case for a multidimensional empirical typolo... more This conceptual and methodological article makes the case for a multidimensional empirical typology of state fragility. It presents a framework that defines fragile statehood as deficiencies in one or more of the core functions of the state: authority, capacity and legitimacy. Unlike available indices of state fragility, it suggests a route towards operationalisation that maintains this multidimensionality. The methodology presented should help in future research to identify clusters of countries that exhibit similar constellations of statehood, whereby ‘constellation’ refers to the specific mix of characteristics across the three dimensions. Such an identification of empirical types would fulfil a demand that exists both in academic research and among policy circles for finding a more realistic model of fragility at an intermediate level between single-case analyses and the far-too-broad category of state fragility.
CESIfo Working Paper No. 5419 (2015) Co-authored with Axel Dreher, 2015
This article investigates the effect of natural resources on whether ethno-political groups choos... more This article investigates the effect of natural resources on whether ethno-political groups choose to pursue their goals with non-violent as compared to violent means, distinguishing terrorism from insurgencies. It is hypothesized that whether or not the extraction of fossil fuels sparks violence depends both on the group’s characteristics and the state’s reaction. Data are taken from the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROB) project, covering 118 organizations in 13 countries of the Middle East and North Africa over the 1980-2004 period. The multinomial logit models combine group- and country-specific information and show that ethno-political groups are more likely to resort to rebellion rather than using non-violent means or becoming terrorists when representing regions rich in oil. This effect is enhanced for groups already enjoying regional autonomy or being supported by a foreign state but can be mitigated by power sharing arrangements.
The situation of refugees all over the world gets increasingly protracted, as civil wars in their... more The situation of refugees all over the world gets increasingly protracted, as civil wars in their home countries are not resolved. Especially in developing countries, the sudden
inflow and long-term presence of refugees can represent a
significant strain on infrastructure and markets. Uganda has an exemplary legal framework in its Refugee Act aiming at the economic independence from aid of refugees and the inclusion of public services for hosts and the displaced.
Three waves of two different household surveys are used, in order to employ a difference-in-differences approach. In doing so, the natural experiment of two sudden inflows is exploited, while simultaneously controlling for long-term trends in refugee numbers. The findings presented here suggest that Uganda can benefit from its decades long experience in hosting refugees as well as its policy framework when it comes to the economic welfare and the public service provision of its nationals. Yet, there are small warning signals regarding social integration. This could motivate policy makers to look further into this issue and possibly increase efforts to reduce prejudices between the groups.
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, empirically, state fragility – conceptualised ... more The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, empirically, state fragility – conceptualised as a multi-dimensional phenomenon along the categories of authority, capacity and legitimacy – comes in several distinct configurations, yet that the number of such configurations is rather limited. We suggest that this finding has useful, previously unexplored implications for policy design vis-à-vis fragile states. We do not intend to call into question the necessity of country-specific analysis. A better grasp of “typical” forms of fragility, however, should help development agencies to better prepare for the types of situations they are most likely to be confronted with. The final section of the paper explores some of the practical implications that can be derived from our classification.
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Papers by Merle Kreibaum
inflow and long-term presence of refugees can represent a
significant strain on infrastructure and markets. Uganda has an exemplary legal framework in its Refugee Act aiming at the economic independence from aid of refugees and the inclusion of public services for hosts and the displaced.
Three waves of two different household surveys are used, in order to employ a difference-in-differences approach. In doing so, the natural experiment of two sudden inflows is exploited, while simultaneously controlling for long-term trends in refugee numbers. The findings presented here suggest that Uganda can benefit from its decades long experience in hosting refugees as well as its policy framework when it comes to the economic welfare and the public service provision of its nationals. Yet, there are small warning signals regarding social integration. This could motivate policy makers to look further into this issue and possibly increase efforts to reduce prejudices between the groups.
inflow and long-term presence of refugees can represent a
significant strain on infrastructure and markets. Uganda has an exemplary legal framework in its Refugee Act aiming at the economic independence from aid of refugees and the inclusion of public services for hosts and the displaced.
Three waves of two different household surveys are used, in order to employ a difference-in-differences approach. In doing so, the natural experiment of two sudden inflows is exploited, while simultaneously controlling for long-term trends in refugee numbers. The findings presented here suggest that Uganda can benefit from its decades long experience in hosting refugees as well as its policy framework when it comes to the economic welfare and the public service provision of its nationals. Yet, there are small warning signals regarding social integration. This could motivate policy makers to look further into this issue and possibly increase efforts to reduce prejudices between the groups.