The Patos Lagoon estuary is an important environment for the life cycle of many species, including the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis. This area acts as a nursery ground for the shrimp larvae, which are spawned in a coastal area and transported into the lagoon during spring and early summer (September to December). Harvesting of shrimp occurs from January to May, and yields have varied from around 1,000 to 8,000 tons year −1 . This study is based on analysis of river discharge, pink shrimp catches, and wind velocity time series from 1964 to 2004. Negative correlation between pink shrimp catches and river runoff reflects the influence of discharge on the lagoon circulation and, consequently, on the intrusion of salt water and larvae. When river discharge is below average, landward currents forced by SW winds can enhance larval transport into the estuarine area, leading to an increase in pink shrimp captures. Above average river input would force a seaward flow that works as a barrier to ingress of larvae. This is unusual when compared to many other estuarine systems, and the main factor that accounts for this behavior is the morphology (choking) of Patos Lagoon. Interannual variability related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation events also influence pink shrimp production in this area. Low/high shrimp catches are related to El Niño (flood)/La Niña (drought) events. Wind can also impact production through its effect on the southward displacement of larvae from the spawning area. Long-term trends indicate an increase in river discharge around 20 m 3 s −1 year −1 and a decrease in shrimp catches on the order of 57 tons year −1 .

O principal objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar as vazões médias mensais dos diversos rios que compõem a Bacia hidrográfica da Lagoa dos Patos. Para tal desenvolveu-se uma metodologia específica que permitiu a recuperação de dados médios mensais, cobrindo um período de 57 anos, de vazão dos rios Jacuí, Taquari e Camaquã. Também é feita a análise das variações de longo período do fluxo fluvial associadas à "El Niño"/"La Niña". Através destes, observa-se a marcante sazonalidade que há no padrão de escoamento, baixo no verão e alto nos meses de fim de inverno/início de primavera. A soma das descargas médias anuais dos rios afluentes ao sistema Guaíba e Camaquã resulta em 1770 m³/s. Incluindo-se o canal de São Gonçalo que tem um fluxo médio de 700 m³/s, verifica-se que a descarga média de água doce da Lagoa dos Patos atinge 2.400 m³/s. Grandes variações interanuais são observadas ressaltando-se que durante eventos de "El Niño" ocorrem descargas fluviais muito maiores que as normais. As vazões mais baixas estão associadas com "La Niña".

During the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, photooxidation of surface oil led to the formation of persistent photooxidized compounds, still found in shoreline sediments a decade later. Studies demonstrated that photooxidation modified both biodegradation rates of the surface oil and the effectiveness of aerial dispersant applications. Despite the significant consequences of this weathering pathway, the lack of measurements prevented photooxidation to be accounted for in the DWH oil budget calculations and in most predictive models. Here we develop a Lagrangian photooxidation module that estimates the dose of solar radiation individual oil droplets receive while moving in the ocean, quantifies the likelihood of photooxidative changes, and continues to track the transport of these persistent photooxidized compounds. We estimate and track the likelihood of photooxidation of Lagrangian oil droplets in the upper layers of the water column for the DWH case by coupling the net shortwave radiation from NOGAPS to the oil application of the Connectivity Modeling System (oil-CMS). The dose of solar radiation upon a droplet is computed with the intensity of the incoming irradiance at the ocean's surface, the light attenuation coefficient, and the depth of the oil droplets. Considering a range of DWH empirical irradiance thresholds, we find that photooxidation can happen at short time scales of hours to days, in agreement with the new paradigm of oil photooxidation. Furthermore, the oxidized compounds are likely to form in a 110 km radius around the response site, suggesting that the oil reaching the coastline was already photooxidized. This new dynamic coupling provides a powerful tool to test oil weathering hypotheses, refine the oil budget during the DWH, and ultimately inform rapid response in future oil spills.

In many cases, (processed) wastewater or thermal effluents are discharged into the marine environment, rivers or lakes. To accurately determine the dispersion, recirculation and environmental impacts of outfall plumes, it is important to be able to model the different characteristics of the outfall plume in detail – from the near field (metres around the outfall) to the far field (up to kilometres away). The solution for engineering practice is to combine different types of models (near and far field models) that each focus on specific scales, with corresponding optimised resolutions and processes. However, to adequately describe the hydrodynamic processes on these different scales, it is essential to couple these models in a dynamic and comprehensive way. To achieve this, a dynamic coupling between the open-source Delft3D-FLOW far field model and the CORMIX near field expert system is proposed. This coupled modelling system is able to use the computed far field ambient conditions i...

Whether mesophotic reefs will behave as refugia for corals threatened by global climate change and coastal development depends on vertical exchange of larvae between diverse habitats. Here we use a biophysical model of larval dispersal to estimate vertical connectivity of a broadcasting (Orbicella faveolata) and a brooding (Porites astreoides) species of coral in the US Virgin Islands. Modeling predicts subsidy to shallow areas by mesophotic larvae of both species based on local hydrology, adult reproductive characteristics, larval traits, and a wide range of scenarios developed to test depth-sensitive factors, such as fertilization rates and post-settlement survivorship. In extreme model scenarios of reduced fertilization and post-settlement survivorship of mesophotic larvae, 1-10 % local mesophotic subsidy to shallow recruitment is predicted for both species, which are demographically significant. Although direct vertical connectivity is higher for the broadcaster, the brooder demonstrates higher local multigenerational vertical connectivity, which suggests that local P. astreoides populations are more resilient than those of O. faveolata, and corroborates field studies. As shallow habitat degrades, mesophotic-shallow subsidy is predicted to increase for both species. This study is the first of its kind to simulate larval dispersal and settlement between habitats of different depths, and these findings have local, regional, and global implications for predicting and managing coral reef persistence in a changing climate.

Mesophotic coral reef ecosystems are remote from coastal stressors, but are still vulnerable to over-exploitation, and remain mostly unprotected. They may be the key to coral reefs resilience, yet little is known about the pattern of larval subsidies from deeper to shallower coral reef habitats. Here we use a biophysical modeling approach to test the hypothesis that fishes from mesophotic coral reef ecosystems may replenish shallow reef populations. We aim at identifying the spatio-temporal patterns and underlying mechanisms of larval connections between Pulley Ridge, a mesophotic reef in the Gulf of Mexico hosting of a variety of shallow-water tropical fishes, and the Florida Keys reefs. A new three-dimensional (3D) polygon habitat module is developed for the open-source Connectivity Modeling System to simulate larval movement behavior of the bicolor damselfish, Stegastes partitus, in a realistic 3D representation of the coral reef habitat. Biological traits such as spawning periodicity, mortality, and vertical migration are also incorporated in the model. Virtual damselfish larvae are released daily from the Pulley Ridge at 80m depth over 60 lunar spawning cycles and tracked until settlement within a fine resolution 2 of 34 (~900m) hydrodynamic model of the region. Such probabilistic simulations reveal mesophoticshallow connections with large, yet sporadic pulses of larvae settling in the Florida Keys. Modal and spectral analyses on the spawning time of successful larvae, and on the position of the Florida Current front with respect to Pulley Ridge, demonstrate that specific physical-biological interactions modulate these "perfect storm" events. Indeed, the co-occurrence of 1) peak spawning with frontal features, and 2) cyclonic eddies with ontogenetic vertical migration, contribute to high settlement in the Florida Keys. This study demonstrates that mesophotic coral reef ecosystems can also serve as refugia for coral reef fish and suggests that they have a critical role in the resilience of shallow reef communities.

During the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, photooxidation of surface oil led to the formation of persistent photooxidized compounds, still found in shoreline sediments a decade later. Studies demonstrated that photooxidation modified both biodegradation rates of the surface oil and the effectiveness of aerial dispersant applications. Despite the significant consequences of this weathering pathway, the lack of measurements prevented photooxidation to be accounted for in the DWH oil budget calculations and in most predictive models. Here we develop a Lagrangian photooxidation module that estimates the dose of solar radiation individual oil droplets receive while moving in the ocean, quantifies the likelihood of photooxidative changes, and continues to track the transport of these persistent photooxidized compounds. We estimate and track the likelihood of photooxidation of Lagrangian oil droplets in the upper layers of the water column for the DWH case by coupling the net shortwave ra...