We analyze the determinants of value-added and productivity growth of New Member States in the pe... more We analyze the determinants of value-added and productivity growth of New Member States in the period between 1995 and 2009. We show that in the analyzed countries, exports contributed to roughly 30% to over 40% of the overall growth of GDP while the contribution of the domestic component varied from negative to over 60%. We show that in the most important export manufacturing industries of the NMS, the growth in exported value added was substantial, while the growth of the domestic component of GDP was mostly due to the growth in services. We associate growth of sectoral productivity with the foreign direct investment and exporting but, more importantly, with the position of a sector/country in the global value chains. We show that sectors that have imported intermediate goods have experienced higher productivity growth. Moreover, faster productivity growth was found in sectors further away from the final demand and in sectors exporting intermediate goods.
Celem opracowania jest określenie roli usług rynkowych w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski ... more Celem opracowania jest określenie roli usług rynkowych w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski w latach 1995-2012. W okresie tym obserwowano systematyczny wzrost udziału usług rynkowych w zatrudnieniu. Równocześnie, w związku z relatywnie szybszym postępem technologicznym w przemyśle, to tam produktywność pracy oraz całkowita produktywność czynników (TFP) rosły szybciej. Systematycznie spadała też cena względna dóbr przemysłowych w porównaniu do usług. Zmienność zatrudnienia i wartości dodanej w cyklu koniunkturalnym była natomiast wyraźnie mniejsza w usługach rynkowych. W niniejszym opracowaniu znacząco pogłębiono analizę ww. regularności. Przeprowadzone badanie ma charakter wieloaspektowy, a dokonane zostało zarówno w oparciu o dane makroekonomiczne, jak i jednostkowe, przy wykorzystaniu narzędzi analitycznych takich, jak m.in. dekompozycja Solowa, model regresji dla danych panelowych czy filtry i statystyki spektralne. Ponadto, w oparciu o dane jednostkowe na poziomie firm z lat 2005-2012, przeanalizowano też różnice pomiędzy poszczególnymi branżami usługowymi pod względem poziomu oraz dynamiki produktywności pracy i zatrudnienia. Na tle wysokiej heterogeniczności firm w ramach poszczególnych branż nie stwierdzono istotnie różnej dynamiki rozwojowej usług eksportointensywnych, relatywnie kapitałochłonnych, B2B, ani usług opartych na wiedzy.
W artykule przedstawiono najważniejsze stylizowane fakty dotyczące przebiegu cyklu koniunk-tura... more W artykule przedstawiono najważniejsze stylizowane fakty dotyczące przebiegu cyklu koniunk-turalnego w Polsce w latach 19962009. Fakty te sformułowano na podstawie kwartalnych danych dotyczących realnej gospodarki Polski, poddanych odsezonowaniu oraz filtracji ...
The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there ex... more The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there exist fixed costs of entry to export markets, the firms begin exporting if the productivity exceeds a certain threshold value. Productivity is thus a crucial factor behind firms' export market participation. To verify this, I estimate a simple probit model of firms' decision to
The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there ex... more The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there exists a fixed costs of entry to export markets, firms begin exporting if productivity exceeds a certain threshold value. Productivity is thus a crucial factor behind firms' export market participation. To verify this, I estimate a simple probit model of the firms decision to
Although foreign subsidiaries usually perform better than the average of the hosting economies, e... more Although foreign subsidiaries usually perform better than the average of the hosting economies, empirical literature has also established that the selection effect is statistically significant. In this paper we attempt to evaluate its economic relevance, using a unique dataset of annual financial reports by all medium and large Polish enterprises over a period 1996-2007. We match firms privatized with the
From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and... more From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and factor employment tax payments. Factor employment taxes denotes such taxes as payroll tax, social security levies, and land taxes. Although no arrays have represented these data explicitly, they are implicit as the difference between different valuations of primary factor flows. Income tax, by
Poland has experienced a great deal of worsening of its fiscal situation following the economic s... more Poland has experienced a great deal of worsening of its fiscal situation following the economic slowdown of 2008–2009 caused by the worldwide financial crisis. General government deficit reached around 8% of GDP in 2010 both as a result of lower economic activity but also due to structural loosening that took part in the period immediately preceding the crisis. We attempt
The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediter... more The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EUROMED) that would include the European Union and the MENA countries by 2010. The intermediate steps towards building the EUROMED have involved bilateral “vertical” trade liberalization between the EU and the particular MENA countries as well as “horizontal” trade liberalization among themselves. In
Using a computable general equilibrium model we assess the effects of services trade liberalizati... more Using a computable general equilibrium model we assess the effects of services trade liberalization in Poland and its major trading partners in the context of the WTO Doha Round negotiations and the ongoing process of trade liberalization within the enlarged European Union. The paper provides a thorough descriptive analysis of the data on trade in services. It gives a complete
The aim of this paper is to assess the non-monetary effects of the euro accession of Poland. The ... more The aim of this paper is to assess the non-monetary effects of the euro accession of Poland. The literature identifies two channels that potentially may affect the economy: (i) diminishing of investment risk premia through lower interest rates and cost of capital services and (ii) trade creation effects due to elimination of currency transaction spreads, better price comparability and elimination
ABSTRACT An important benefit attributed to the activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in d... more ABSTRACT An important benefit attributed to the activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in developing and transition countries is its effect on international market access. Through a variety of channels the presence of MNEs is expected to reduce the costs faced by indigenous firms in breaking into international markets and in turn boost their export prospects. In this paper we use an extensive Polish firm-level dataset for the period 2000–2008 to verify whether MNEs have positively contributed to the export performance of indigenous firms. We track not only sectoral and geographical spillovers stemming from the activity of MNEs but also control for firm-specific characteristics that affect indigenous firms' decisions to export including their absorptive capacity. Our empirical results support the existence of positive spillovers (related to MNE export activity) at the sectoral level but not at the regional level. Finally, we find that individual absorptive capacity determines the size of export spillovers.
From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and... more From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and factor employment tax payments. Factor employment taxes denotes such taxes as payroll tax, social security levies, and land taxes. Although no arrays have represented these data explicitly, they are implicit as the difference between different valuations of primary factor flows. Income tax, by factor (endowment commodity) and region is the difference between market value VFM (summed over industries) and agents' value EVOA (where the agents are owners of factors); factor employment tax, by factor, industry, and region is the difference between market value VFM and agents' value EVFA (where agents are employers of factors). In early releases however this capability was unused; the relevant valuations were equated, so that the implicit tax payments were zero. In GTAP 5, the capability was used, but in a limited way, to represent land-based and capital-based components of domestic...
The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediter... more The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EUROMED) that would include the European Union and the MENA countries by 2010. The intermediate steps towards building the EUROMED have involved bilateral "vertical" trade liberalization between the EU and the particular MENA countries as well as "horizontal" trade liberalization among themselves. In this paper we evaluate empirically the effects of the new EU Association Agreements with the MENA countries using the augmented gravity equations derived from a variety of neoclassical and new trade theory models and panel data for the period 1980-2004. We find that while these agreements increased significantly imports of the MENA countries from the EU they had no positive impact on their exports to the EU which can be attributed to the asymmetry in trade liberalization between the EU and the MENA countries.
After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region ... more After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region radically liberalized their foreign trade regimes in the 1990s. In particular preferential trade liberalization in the CEE countries has been promoted by the European Union in the form of the association agreements that involved "vertical" trade liberalization between the EU and countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to this the CEE countries liberalized trade "horizontally" among themselves in the form of sub-regional and bilateral free trade agreements. In this paper, we use the generalized gravity equation estimated on bilateral trade data for ten CEE countries during the period of 1993-2004 to evaluate the effectiveness of preferential trade liberalization in Central and Eastern Europe. We find that all forms of preferential trade liberalization positively contributed to the expansion of trade of the CEE countries but their impact was country specific.
After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region ... more After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region moved away from almost complete autarky and radically liberalized their foreign trade regimes in the 1990s. Preferential trade liberalization in the CEE countries has ...
We analyze the determinants of value-added and productivity growth of New Member States in the pe... more We analyze the determinants of value-added and productivity growth of New Member States in the period between 1995 and 2009. We show that in the analyzed countries, exports contributed to roughly 30% to over 40% of the overall growth of GDP while the contribution of the domestic component varied from negative to over 60%. We show that in the most important export manufacturing industries of the NMS, the growth in exported value added was substantial, while the growth of the domestic component of GDP was mostly due to the growth in services. We associate growth of sectoral productivity with the foreign direct investment and exporting but, more importantly, with the position of a sector/country in the global value chains. We show that sectors that have imported intermediate goods have experienced higher productivity growth. Moreover, faster productivity growth was found in sectors further away from the final demand and in sectors exporting intermediate goods.
Celem opracowania jest określenie roli usług rynkowych w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski ... more Celem opracowania jest określenie roli usług rynkowych w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski w latach 1995-2012. W okresie tym obserwowano systematyczny wzrost udziału usług rynkowych w zatrudnieniu. Równocześnie, w związku z relatywnie szybszym postępem technologicznym w przemyśle, to tam produktywność pracy oraz całkowita produktywność czynników (TFP) rosły szybciej. Systematycznie spadała też cena względna dóbr przemysłowych w porównaniu do usług. Zmienność zatrudnienia i wartości dodanej w cyklu koniunkturalnym była natomiast wyraźnie mniejsza w usługach rynkowych. W niniejszym opracowaniu znacząco pogłębiono analizę ww. regularności. Przeprowadzone badanie ma charakter wieloaspektowy, a dokonane zostało zarówno w oparciu o dane makroekonomiczne, jak i jednostkowe, przy wykorzystaniu narzędzi analitycznych takich, jak m.in. dekompozycja Solowa, model regresji dla danych panelowych czy filtry i statystyki spektralne. Ponadto, w oparciu o dane jednostkowe na poziomie firm z lat 2005-2012, przeanalizowano też różnice pomiędzy poszczególnymi branżami usługowymi pod względem poziomu oraz dynamiki produktywności pracy i zatrudnienia. Na tle wysokiej heterogeniczności firm w ramach poszczególnych branż nie stwierdzono istotnie różnej dynamiki rozwojowej usług eksportointensywnych, relatywnie kapitałochłonnych, B2B, ani usług opartych na wiedzy.
W artykule przedstawiono najważniejsze stylizowane fakty dotyczące przebiegu cyklu koniunk-tura... more W artykule przedstawiono najważniejsze stylizowane fakty dotyczące przebiegu cyklu koniunk-turalnego w Polsce w latach 19962009. Fakty te sformułowano na podstawie kwartalnych danych dotyczących realnej gospodarki Polski, poddanych odsezonowaniu oraz filtracji ...
The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there ex... more The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there exist fixed costs of entry to export markets, the firms begin exporting if the productivity exceeds a certain threshold value. Productivity is thus a crucial factor behind firms' export market participation. To verify this, I estimate a simple probit model of firms' decision to
The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there ex... more The model by Melitz (2003) predicts that if firms differ in their productivity (TFP) and there exists a fixed costs of entry to export markets, firms begin exporting if productivity exceeds a certain threshold value. Productivity is thus a crucial factor behind firms' export market participation. To verify this, I estimate a simple probit model of the firms decision to
Although foreign subsidiaries usually perform better than the average of the hosting economies, e... more Although foreign subsidiaries usually perform better than the average of the hosting economies, empirical literature has also established that the selection effect is statistically significant. In this paper we attempt to evaluate its economic relevance, using a unique dataset of annual financial reports by all medium and large Polish enterprises over a period 1996-2007. We match firms privatized with the
From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and... more From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and factor employment tax payments. Factor employment taxes denotes such taxes as payroll tax, social security levies, and land taxes. Although no arrays have represented these data explicitly, they are implicit as the difference between different valuations of primary factor flows. Income tax, by
Poland has experienced a great deal of worsening of its fiscal situation following the economic s... more Poland has experienced a great deal of worsening of its fiscal situation following the economic slowdown of 2008–2009 caused by the worldwide financial crisis. General government deficit reached around 8% of GDP in 2010 both as a result of lower economic activity but also due to structural loosening that took part in the period immediately preceding the crisis. We attempt
The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediter... more The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EUROMED) that would include the European Union and the MENA countries by 2010. The intermediate steps towards building the EUROMED have involved bilateral “vertical” trade liberalization between the EU and the particular MENA countries as well as “horizontal” trade liberalization among themselves. In
Using a computable general equilibrium model we assess the effects of services trade liberalizati... more Using a computable general equilibrium model we assess the effects of services trade liberalization in Poland and its major trading partners in the context of the WTO Doha Round negotiations and the ongoing process of trade liberalization within the enlarged European Union. The paper provides a thorough descriptive analysis of the data on trade in services. It gives a complete
The aim of this paper is to assess the non-monetary effects of the euro accession of Poland. The ... more The aim of this paper is to assess the non-monetary effects of the euro accession of Poland. The literature identifies two channels that potentially may affect the economy: (i) diminishing of investment risk premia through lower interest rates and cost of capital services and (ii) trade creation effects due to elimination of currency transaction spreads, better price comparability and elimination
ABSTRACT An important benefit attributed to the activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in d... more ABSTRACT An important benefit attributed to the activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in developing and transition countries is its effect on international market access. Through a variety of channels the presence of MNEs is expected to reduce the costs faced by indigenous firms in breaking into international markets and in turn boost their export prospects. In this paper we use an extensive Polish firm-level dataset for the period 2000–2008 to verify whether MNEs have positively contributed to the export performance of indigenous firms. We track not only sectoral and geographical spillovers stemming from the activity of MNEs but also control for firm-specific characteristics that affect indigenous firms' decisions to export including their absorptive capacity. Our empirical results support the existence of positive spillovers (related to MNE export activity) at the sectoral level but not at the regional level. Finally, we find that individual absorptive capacity determines the size of export spillovers.
From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and... more From its first release, the GTAP Data Base has had the capability implicitly to record income and factor employment tax payments. Factor employment taxes denotes such taxes as payroll tax, social security levies, and land taxes. Although no arrays have represented these data explicitly, they are implicit as the difference between different valuations of primary factor flows. Income tax, by factor (endowment commodity) and region is the difference between market value VFM (summed over industries) and agents' value EVOA (where the agents are owners of factors); factor employment tax, by factor, industry, and region is the difference between market value VFM and agents' value EVFA (where agents are employers of factors). In early releases however this capability was unused; the relevant valuations were equated, so that the implicit tax payments were zero. In GTAP 5, the capability was used, but in a limited way, to represent land-based and capital-based components of domestic...
The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediter... more The EU-sponsored Barcelona conference in 1995 set the ambitious goal of creating the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EUROMED) that would include the European Union and the MENA countries by 2010. The intermediate steps towards building the EUROMED have involved bilateral "vertical" trade liberalization between the EU and the particular MENA countries as well as "horizontal" trade liberalization among themselves. In this paper we evaluate empirically the effects of the new EU Association Agreements with the MENA countries using the augmented gravity equations derived from a variety of neoclassical and new trade theory models and panel data for the period 1980-2004. We find that while these agreements increased significantly imports of the MENA countries from the EU they had no positive impact on their exports to the EU which can be attributed to the asymmetry in trade liberalization between the EU and the MENA countries.
After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region ... more After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region radically liberalized their foreign trade regimes in the 1990s. In particular preferential trade liberalization in the CEE countries has been promoted by the European Union in the form of the association agreements that involved "vertical" trade liberalization between the EU and countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to this the CEE countries liberalized trade "horizontally" among themselves in the form of sub-regional and bilateral free trade agreements. In this paper, we use the generalized gravity equation estimated on bilateral trade data for ten CEE countries during the period of 1993-2004 to evaluate the effectiveness of preferential trade liberalization in Central and Eastern Europe. We find that all forms of preferential trade liberalization positively contributed to the expansion of trade of the CEE countries but their impact was country specific.
After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region ... more After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region moved away from almost complete autarky and radically liberalized their foreign trade regimes in the 1990s. Preferential trade liberalization in the CEE countries has ...
Uploads
Papers by Jan Hagemejer