GFS MOS Parallel Evaluation 2010 - MDL
Parallel Evaluation of GFS MOS
On July 28, 2010, NCEP implemented a major upgrade to the Global Forecast System (GFS) model which serves as input to the GFS-based MOS guidance. MDL ran the GFS MOS in parallel for 30 days using the operational equations, applied to the parallel GFS model output. MDL evaluated the parallel GFS MOS from 14 June - 14 July, 2010, to determine the impacts of these changes to GFS MOS products. The results are shown below.
GFS MOS Parallel Testing/Evaluation Results
| Element | Verification Plots (Images) |
|---|---|
| 2-m Temperature | Mean Absolute Error Bias |
| Dewpoint Temperature | Mean Absolute Error Bias |
| Daytime Maximun Temperature | Mean Absolute Error Bias |
| Nighttime Minimum Temperature | Mean Absolute Error Bias |
| 3-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm | Brier Score Reliability Diagram - 24-h Forecast Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast |
| 6-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm | Brier Score Reliability Diagram - 24-h Forecast Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast |
| 12-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm | Brier Score Reliability Diagram - 24-h Forecast Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast |
| 24-hr Probability of a Thunderstorm | Brier Score Reliability Diagram - 36-h Forecast Reliability Diagram - 72-h Forecast |
