Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for January, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on December 24, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



December, one of the wettest months for the Pacific Northwest climatologically, brought above-average precipitation to portions of northern California, Oregon, Washington, and southern Idaho, resulting in modest relief of drought and abnormal dryness. Below-average precipitation prevailed across the remainder of the Western Region, however, resulting in drought degradations across portions of the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. Overall, the drought depiction remained fairly steady through December. January is a critical month for moisture supply across the West, as Pacific storms typically bring copious moisture that fills reservoirs and builds snowpacks across the Cascades, Sierras, and Rockies. With conditions trending quickly towards La Niñ\;a across the Pacific, a shift towards drier conditions across the southern portions of the Western Region and wetter conditions for the Northwest is favored. During the next week, continued storminess across the Northwest is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Oregon and Washington, and heavy snows to the Cascades, with additional snowfall falling across the Northern Rockies. Following a period of drier, warmer conditions across the West during Week-2, the updated CPC January outlook shows enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across the Northwest and northern Rockies, with increased odds for below-normal precipitation across the Southwest. Therefore, gradual drought relief is forecast for the northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies, with persistence maintained across the High Plains due to lower climatological precipitation. Drought persistence is favored for the Southwest, and development is indicated for portions of southern California, southern and central Arizona, and portions of New Mexico.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Western Region.



During the past month, the mountainous portions of the High Plains Region's states experienced varied changes to their drought depictions, as hit and miss precipitation brought needed moisture to portions of the Rockies, while snowpack conditions along the Front Range remained mostly below average. A heavy precipitation event boosted moisture and improved conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. Elsewhere, little change to drought conditions was observed, as both climatological precipitation and evapotranspirative demands are low during the winter season. A fast moving area of low pressure brought rain and snow to South Dakota and Nebraska during this forecast's production cycle, but amounts were unlikely to engender substantive improvements. The revised CPC monthly outlook for January favors above-normal precipitation for the higher elevations of the northern Plains, potentially due to upslope flow as areas of cold high pressure push southward out of Canada. Despite this wetter signal, low climatology and a likelihood for the ground to refreeze under colder conditions would seem to preclude widespread improvements during January. Therefore, persistence is maintained throughout almost all of the High Plains Region, except for far southeastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas, where climatological precipitation is slightly higher.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region.



Periods of rainfall eased drought across northeastern Texas, western Arkansas, and central Tennessee, but drought conditions worsened in areas that didn't receive sufficient rainfall, including southeastern Texas, eastern Arkansas, portions of Mississippi, and the southern Appalachians of Tennessee. More recently, a storm system brought significant moisture to eastern Texas and Arkansas, falling mostly over regions that are now drought free. Additional rainfall is favored for the lower Mississippi Valley over the next week, with dry conditions across Texas and Oklahoma. The revised CPC outlook for January favors below-average precipitation across Texas and Oklahoma primarily, and equal chances across the lower Mississippi Valley. Based on the anticipated drier conditions across Texas, some expansion of drought conditions is favored during January. Persistence is maintained elsewhere in the absence of a clear wet signal, except across central Tennessee, where moisture recharge may be more effective.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region.



Periodic winter storm activity promoted soil moisture recharge and improved drought conditions across Missouri, southern Iowa, the Great Lakes Region, and the eastern corn belt over the last four weeks, while drought conditions worsened somewhat across Illinois. Since the release of the previous drought monitor, a series of storm systems brought rain and snow to portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley and central corn belt, boosting moisture sufficiently to begin eroding drought conditions. Further precipitation is favored during Week-1, with drier but cold conditions overspreading the region during Week-2. The revised CPC January outlook maintains equal chances for below-, near- and above-average precipitation. Despite the lack of a clear wet signal in the longer range forecasts, the shorter term moisture should be sufficient to promote fairly widespread drought reductions across the Ohio River Valley, Missouri, and far southern Minnesota and Michigan. Across the remainder of the Great Lakes, persistence is maintained due to the broader signal, but localized improvements are likely due to periods of lake effect snow.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



Frontal systems brought improved drought conditions to southern Alabama and central Georgia over the past month, while a dry end to the wet season across Florida promoted expansion of moderate drought and abnormal dryness. Mostly below-average rainfall is favored during the next week across the Southeast. Outbreaks of arctic air are favored to occur during the first weeks of January, which would slow evapotranspirative demands, even across Florida. The revised January precipitation outlook from CPC maintains equal chances for below-, near-, and above-average precipitation across the region. Based on the drier conditions favored during the first half of January, persistence of existing drought areas is the most likely outcome. The colder conditions should help preclude widespread drought expansion. Localized improvements are possible along any stalled fronts, but confidence is too low to pinpoint any specific regions for improvement.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



Across the Northeast, several winter storms brought rapid recharge and drought relief to the central Appalachians, especially West Virginia, upstate New York, southern New England, and northern Maine. In contrast, conditions deteriorated across portions of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and White Mountains due to below average snowpack conditions. During the next week, widespread moisture is forecast to overspread New England, providing additional opportunities for recharge. Cold conditions are favored to follow, and the updated CPC monthly outlook for January shows enhanced chances for above-average precipitation across New England, much of which would fall as snow. Based on this wet signal, further improvements are forecast for upstate New York and much of New England. In contrast, recharge has been less effective at removing drought impacts across the mid-Atlantic region, and precipitation forecasts for January are more unclear. Therefore, persistence is maintained across eastern Pennsylvania and Maryland, except along the Allegheny Plateau, New Jersey, and the Delmarva. There is less confidence in the persistence regions, as any strong winter storm activity could result in improved conditions during January.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during January across Alaska.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Drought conditions gradually expanded across Hawaii during the past month, as the early wet season got off to a lackluster start. Periods of enhanced rainfall are favored to alternate with drier conditions across Hawaii, and in the absence of a clear wet signal during January, drought persistence is the most likely outcome. More than one month of beneficial precipitation is likely needed to make substantive changes to the existing drought conditions.



Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.



No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during January across Puerto Rico.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during January across the US Virgin Islands.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EST