Seasonal Assessment DJF 1999-2000
Mature cold episode (La Niña) conditions prevailed
during December-February (DJF) 1999-2000, with the associated effects dominating the
global tropical and subtropical atmospheric circulation. The ongoing cold episode first
developed in May-June 1998, reached mature conditions during DJF 1998/99, and then
weakened through mid-1999. During the latter half of 1999 the cold episode again
strengthened, with strong mature phase conditions dominating DJF 1999-2000.
Seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
were more than 1.0 oC below normal across the equatorial Pacific east of 165 oE.
Within the season, monthly mean SST anomalies were more than 2 oC below normal
at many locations in the equatorial Pacific. The Niņo 3.4 index in the central equatorial
Pacific stayed at or below -1.5 throughout the season. The 21-month period from May 1998
to February 2000 was one of the longest continuous periods of cold SST conditions in the
central tropical Pacific in the last 50 years. Similar long-lasting cold episodes were
also observed during 1954-1956 and 1973-1976.
The subsurface thermal structure in the equatorial
Pacific was highly persistent during the season with a deeper-than-normal thermocline in
the west central and western Pacific and a much shallower-than-normal thermocline in the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This resulted in an anomalous pattern of
subsurface temperatures featuring positive anomalies (up to 5oC) in the western
Pacific and negative anomalies (as low as -5oC ) in the east Pacific. This
pattern greatly resembled conditions observed during DJF 1998/1999.
Consistent with ongoing cold episode conditions, tropical
convection (as inferred by OLR) was enhanced across the winter monsoon region and
suppressed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The standardized outgoing
longwave radiation (OLR) index in the central equatorial Pacific exceeded +2 during all
three months, indicating greatly suppressed convection in that region. The DJF average OLR
index was the highest value recorded during the period 1979-present. Seasonal precipitation totals ranged from 50-600 mm above normal
over a large region encompassing the eastern Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, northern
Australia and the western equatorial Pacific. Seasonal rainfall totals were also excessive
over northern South America and over southern Africa. In the
latter region saturated soils and excessive rainfall from two tropical systems combined to
produce disastrous flooding in Mozambique and portions of neighboring countries during
February.
Seasonal mean lower-level and upper-level tropical wind anomalies exhibited features that
are consistent with the precipitation anomalies in the tropical Pacific. At 850 hPa,
easterly zonal wind anomalies were in excess of 6 m s-1 in the west-central
equatorial Pacific, while westerly anomalies in excess of 3 m s-1 were observed
over the central and eastern Indian Ocean. This low-level wind pattern implied strong
anomalous low-level zonal convergence over Indonesia and Malaysia. At upper levels (200
hPa) westerly anomalies exceeded 10 m s-1 in the central and eastern equatorial
Pacific, which together with the low-level easterly anomalies contributed to an enhanced Walker circulation with anomalous rising motion over
southeast Asia and anomalous sinking motion over the central and eastern equatorial
Pacific.
The tropical sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly pattern
shows the well known cold episode characteristics with above normal pressure over the
central and southeast tropical Pacific and below normal pressure over Southeast Asia. This
SLP pattern was especially strong during February, contributing to the largest positive
value (since 1958) of the equatorial SOI at 3.9.
The lower mid-latitudes and subtropics of both hemispheres exhibited above-normal 200-hPa heights, while below-normal heights prevailed
throughout the Tropics. These features are consistent with La Niña conditions. In fact
this pattern (sometimes referred to as the global monsoon mode) constitutes a
recurring pattern associated with cold episode conditions, and has been present more or
less continuously since mid-1998. In contrast to a highly persistent pattern of height
anomalies in the Tropics, subtropics, and lower mid-latitudes, the high latitudes,
especially in the Northern Hemisphere, exhibited considerable intraseasonal variability.
In the Pacific-North American sector, this variability was associated with a
westward contraction of the mean jet stream, a northward shift of the westerlies relative
to normal over the eastern Pacific, and large month-to-month variability in the
monthly values of the PNA index. Also, considerable high-latitude retrogression of
circulation features occurred during the season, as evident in the animation
of 200-hPa heights. At the middle and high latitudes, similar features can be
found at 500 hPa and 200 hPa. Over the North Atlantic, the anomalous 500-hPa height pattern was associated with a strong
positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This phase of the NAO was a
contributing factor to the anomalous warmth over the United States. In fact, surface temperatures over the United States during DJF
1999/00 ranked as the warmest DJF period in the last 105 years. Accumulated seasonal precipitation, was below normal and was
particularly dry (in the 10-20th percentile) along the southern tier of the United States
and in the Northeast. Except for the Atlantic and Gulf states, where the moisture excesses
from the above normal hurricane activity during 1999 lingered, widespread dry conditions
dominated the rest of the country.
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