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Heat Wave Forecasts - Africa

NOAA/NCEP GEFS WEEK1 AND WEEK2 PROBABILITY FORECASTS

POE > 90th and 95th Percentiles for Persisting TMAX AND BIAS CORRECTED TMAX

WEEK1

POE > 90th% 2 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC
POE > 90th% 3 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 2 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 3 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC

WEEK2

POE > 90th% 2 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC
POE > 90th% 3 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 2 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 3 or more days	TMAX	TMAX BC

NOAA/NCEP GEFS WEEK1 AND WEEK2 PROBABILITY FORECASTS

Probability of Exceedance (POE) for Persisting Heat Index

WEEK1

>41degC	3 or more days Raw	3 or more days BC
>47degC	3 or more days Raw	3 or more days BC
>49degC	3 or more days Raw	3 or more days BC

WEEK2

>41degC	3 or more days Raw	3 or more days BC
>47degC	3 or more days Raw	3 or more days BC
>49degC	3 or more days Raw	3 or more days BC

Probability of Exceedance (POE) for Persisting Maximum Heat Index

WEEK1 (BC)

>41degC	>1 days	>2 days	>3 days	>4 days	>5 days	>6 days
>43degC	>1 days	>2 days	>3 days	>4 days	>5 days	>6 days
>45degC	>1 days	>2 days	>3 days	>4 days	>5 days	>6 days

WEEK2 (BC)

>41degC	>1 days	>2 days	>3 days	>4 days	>5 days	>6 days
>43degC	>1 days	>2 days	>3 days	>4 days	>5 days	>6 days
>45degC	>1 days	>2 days	>3 days	>4 days	>5 days	>6 days

NOAA/NCEP GEFS WEEK1 AND WEEK2 DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS

Simple and Overlaid Atmospheric Parameters

WEEK1

TMIN 2m	TMAX 2m	TAVE 2m	RH 2m
div200mb	divt200mb	div200mb	divt200mb
div700mb	divt700mb	div850mb	divt850mb
mslp anom	mslp total	hgt500mb anom	hgt500mb tot

WEEK2

TMIN 2m	TMAX 2m	TAVE 2m	RH 2m
div200mb	divt200mb	div200mb	divt200mb
div700mb	divt700mb	div850mb	divt850mb
mslp anom	mslp total	hgt500mb anom	hgt500mb tot


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