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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Dec 19 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2025
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies about or greater than +0.5 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week.
From January through November 2024, rainfall total accumulations were:
Lihue Airport 26.85 inches (85 percent of average)
Honolulu Airport 10.75 inches (76 percent of average)
Kahului Airport 11.43 inches (85 percent of average)
Hilo Airport 96.50 inches (89 percent of average)
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) favor positive SST anomalies around the Hawaiian Islands in January 2025. Some models predict weak or near zero SST anomalies around the southeastern Hawaiian Islands in January 2025. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and Hawaii or the Big Island) for January with lower probabilities indicated for the southeastern islands of Maui (Kahului) and Hawaii (Hilo), based on model forecasts.
For the January 2025 precipitation outlook, most models of the NMME and C3S predict above normal precipitation for January across all of the Hawaiian Islands. Two out of six C3S models (Meteo-France and CMCC) predict near to below normal precipitation. Of the NMME models, GFDL SPEAR and NCAR CCSM4 also predict near to below normal precipitation, while six other NMME models predict above normal precipitation. The impact of a La Niña would also favor above normal precipitation in January (see further discussion of La Niña below), although the forecast of La Niña is uncertain. Weak probabilities favoring above normal precipitation are indicated in the January precipitation outlook, supported by most dynamical model forecasts and potential La Niña forcing. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | A40 | 71.6 | 0.5 | | A40 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| Kahului | A40 | 72.1 | 0.6 | | A40 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Honolulu | A45 | 73.3 | 0.5 | | A40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Lihue | A45 | 71.8 | 0.7 | | A40 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2025 - JFM 2026 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions continued over the Pacific Ocean through November. Equatorial SSTs are above average in the western Pacific Ocean, and near to weakly below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were westerly across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection and precipitation were observed over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while enhanced convection and precipitation were observed over parts of the Maritime Islands to the west. Most recent dynamical and statistical models continue to predict development of a weak and short duration La Niña by forecasts of negative Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies below the -0.5 C threshold. La Niña is favored to develop with a 70% probability during the December-January-February season and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter with greater than 50% probability through the February-March-April 2025 season.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo for JFM (January-February-March) through May-June-July (MJJ) 2025, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as decadal timescale temperature trends and the potential impacts of a weak La Niña in through winter. Probabilities for above normal temperatures are greater for northwestern islands of Hawaii, exceeding 60 percent in early seasons, following guidance from the NMME. Due to increasing uncertainty in the state of ENSO and weakening signals in forecast guidance at longer leads, Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in JJA (June-July-August) 2025 and extending through longer leads.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from JFM to AMJ (April-May-Jun) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well as canonical impacts of La Niña. Dynamical model forecasts of positive SST anomalies surrounding the Hawaiian Islands also support forecasts of above normal precipitation. The consolidation of statistical models, including Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), Constructed Analog (CA) and a combined ENSO and decadal trend forecast using Optimum Climate Normals (ENSO-OCN), supports the forecast of above normal precipitation through three overlapping seasons. Due to weaker signals in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models and increasing uncertainty in ENSO forcing, EC is indicated for equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for all of Hawaii beginning in MJJ 2025 and extending through longer leads. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2025 | A50 | 71.8 | 0.4 | A50 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2025 | A50 | 71.7 | 0.4 | A50 | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2025 | A50 | 72.0 | 0.5 | A45 | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | A45 | 72.9 | 0.5 | A40 | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | A45 | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2025 | A60 | 72.5 | 0.4 | A55 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2025 | A55 | 72.3 | 0.4 | A55 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2025 | A55 | 73.0 | 0.4 | A45 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2025 | A45 | 74.3 | 0.5 | A45 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2025 | A45 | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2025 | A60 | 73.9 | 0.4 | A55 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2025 | A60 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A55 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2025 | A55 | 74.8 | 0.4 | A45 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | A45 | 76.3 | 0.4 | A45 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2025 | A45 | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2025 | A60 | 72.2 | 0.4 | A60 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2025 | A60 | 72.1 | 0.5 | A55 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2025 | A60 | 72.8 | 0.5 | A50 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | A50 | 74.2 | 0.5 | A45 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | A50 | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
FORECASTER: Dan Collins Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jan 16, 2025. |
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