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Regional Drought Update Date
December 13, 2024
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Northeast

DEWS Regions:
Northeast
States:
Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future Northeast Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

First Drought then Flood; Weather Whiplash Eases Some Drought Concerns but Groundwater Should Still Be Monitored 

Key Points

  • According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (valid on Tuesday, December 10, 2024), almost all of the Northeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) is experiencing dryness and drought. 
  • Widespread rainfall across the region on Wednesday and lake effect snow events earlier this month improved conditions. Rain and lake effect snow greatly reduced fire risk, and benefited surface soils and streamflows (where not frozen). 
  • Extreme Drought (D3) continued to impact Massachusetts. Severe Drought (D2) conditions also continued for most of southern New England, southeast New York, and Long Island. Rain this week will take the edge off these conditions, and precipitation deficit improvement is anticipated.
  • At some locations, groundwater recharge will lag behind moisture replenishment in soils and in streams. As the top layers of soil begin to freeze and become snow covered, additional snow melt and rain may not filter through to fully recharge all wells.  
  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) 8–14 day outlooks don’t offer significant chances for the above-normal precipitation that we need or the above-normal temperatures that would allow for groundwater recharge in this time frame. 
  • States just to our south also continued to struggle with Moderate to Extreme Drought (D1-D3), with late growing season impacts to Christmas trees and harvest difficulties for New Jersey cranberries.

Learn more about precipitation deficits from the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northeast | December 10, 2024
Northeast DEWS

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories
31.99
46.99
16.42
1.69
0.0
65.09

Last Updated: 12/10/24
Learn More
Main Stats
3.6 million
estimated Connecticut residents are in drought
1.3 million
estimated Maine residents are in drought
6.2 million
estimated Massachusetts residents are in drought
14.9 million
estimated New York residents are in drought

This update is based on data available as of Thursday, December 12, 2024 at 10 a.m. ET. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Conditions in the Northeast

  • New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts are maintaining their drought advisories, watches, warnings. 
  • Recent rains and lake effect snow helped reduce fire risk and improve streamflow. Monitoring groundwater recharge will be key for drinking water management.   

Figure 1. Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for the Northeast

Key takeaway: Fire risk improved greatly across the region. Late November and early December rain and snowfall reduced the fire risk.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) attempts to measure the amount of precipitation necessary to return the soil to full field capacity. The index ranges from zero, the point of no moisture deficiency, to 800, the maximum drought that is possible. The value indicates the amount of net rainfall—from 0 inches (0) to 8 inches (800)—that is required to reduce the index to zero, or saturation. The map on the left is valid November 13, 2024. The map on the right is valid December 11, 2024.  These maps show an elimination of values over 300 and a reduction of geographic coverage, illustrating the reduced fire danger in the region. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Figure 2. Realtime Streamflow Conditions

Key takeaway: Earlier this month, streamflow conditions improved in western New York state with multiple rounds of lake effect snow and snow from fast-moving clipper systems.  Many southern New York and New England rivers and streams recovered with very recent rainfall. This weather whiplash (quickly moving from dry surface conditions to wet) was punctuated by flood advisories, watches and warnings in place at mid week. Precipitation—mostly in the form of rain—will improve streamflow in the short term. 

Streamflows across the region are recovering with recent rains. Percentiles in the normal (25-75%) to high (greater than 90%) ranges are dominant in the region.
 Realtime streamflows for the Northeast U.S., compared to historical conditions for the same time period. Valid December 12, 2024. Orange and red  dots indicate below-normal streamflows, green and blue dots indicate above-normal streamflows, and black dots indicate high flow. Streams in many areas of the Northeast showed quick recovery with recent rains. Normal to high flows are evident across the region Source: Northeast DEWS Dashboard, data from U.S. Geological Survey.

Figure 3. Streamflow at Gates Brook Near West Boylston, Massachusetts

Key takeaway: At Gates Brook near West Boylston, Massachusetts, streamflow had been much below normal since September. Mid-week rains will improve flow conditions at this site.

According to streamflow data, Gates Brook near West Boylston, Massachusetts experienced record low flow from mid-September to mid-November.
This graph is an example of a Massachusetts stream experiencing low flow this fall. Daily mean flow in the U.S. Geological Survey Gates Brook streamgage near  West Boylston, Massachusetts, which measures a small brook in central Massachusetts, was much below normal for October into December 2024. During October and early December, streamflows reached record lows for its period of record (12 years). The chart depicts the severity of the below-normal precipitation during September through November. Source: USGS WaterWatch.

Figure 4. Groundwater Conditions for the Northeast U.S. 

Key takeaway: Mixed groundwater conditions are the result of a series of snow and rain events over the past few weeks. Groundwater conditions Improved in many locations, but the results are not uniform. Groundwater monitoring before ground freeze will be helpful to determine recovery.

A mix of below (10% to 24%), normal (25% to 75%), above normal (75% to 90%) and high (+90%) percentiles are evident across the region.
Groundwater conditions for the Northeast U.S., compared to historical conditions. Valid December 12, 2024. Red hues indicate below-normal, much-below-normal, or record low groundwater, while blue and black hues indicate above-normal, much-above-normal, and record high groundwater levels. A mix of below- and above-normal groundwater levels demonstrates recharge lag in some locations. Source: Northeast DEWS Dashboard. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Figure 5. West Boylston, Massachusetts Groundwater Observation Well

Key Takeaway: Fall precipitation deficits are evident in the groundwater well at this location. Weather whiplash into a widespread rain event promises improvements for this site and others experiencing Extreme Drought (D3) in Massachusetts.  

According to this well, near West Boylston, Massachusetts, groundwater levels were in the lowest percentiles from mid-November to mid-December.
This graph is an example of a Massachusetts ground water observation well experiencing low levels this fall. Daily water-levels in the U.S. Geological Survey MA-WSW 26 West Boylston, Massachusetts groundwater observation well in central Massachusetts, had much-below-normal (brown) water levels in November and December 2024. These low water levels were the result of little to no groundwater recharge after below-normal precipitation during fall. This observation well has 12 years of continuous data and 19 years of monthly discrete measurements before that period. 

State and Regional Drought Impacts 

New York

  • Regional reservoirs storing water for New York City continue to show lower capacities.
  • Work on the Delaware Aqueduct project is on hold for now. Work will resume when conditions are more favorable.
  • The New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has kept most of the state in a drought watch, except for several counties in southeastern New York (including New York City), which are under a drought warning.
  • New York City’s drought warning, declared on November 18, 2024, was the first drought warning issued there in more than 20 years. City agencies and residents are asked to take water conservation measures.

Connecticut

Massachusetts

Maine

  • On November 21, Maine’s Drought Task Force reported several drought impacts:
    • Harvest activities were largely completed before significant drought set in. A survey of Maine’s 16 Soil & Water Conservation Districts indicates that most areas are expressing concerns over low farm ponds, wells, and streams. Normal precipitation levels will be needed to restore agricultural water supplies for the 2025 growing season. 
    • The Drinking Water Program was notified of apparent drought-related water chemistry changes in Aroostook County, and a supplier in York County temporarily hauled water to meet water quantity demand until a new well was brought online. Twelve privately owned wells have reportedly run dry during this year. Of these, ten were reported since the beginning of September 2024. Maine is collecting information about dry wells in the state. 
    • Water levels at a salmon hatchery in northern Maine are running so low that 24-inch salmon are dying due to lack of oxygen. All rivers and streams in Central Aroostook were flowing at very low levels. Substantial rain is needed before the winter freezes.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey’s Manasquan Reservoir, west of Trenton, supplies 1.2 million people in Monmouth and Ocean counties with drinking water. 
    • The reservoir received rain this week but is still low. On December 11, 2024, News12 New Jersey reported local residents’ concerns. 
    • Portions of southern New Jersey have experienced Severe Drought (D2) and Extreme Drought (D3) since November 5, 2024.

Drought Impacts in the News

Report your local drought impacts by submitting a Condition Monitoring Observer Report:

Report Drought Impacts

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Northeast

  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) 8–14 day outlooks suggest near-normal precipitation and temperatures for most of the region. Any additional precipitation before ground freeze would be helpful.
  • With ground freeze and snow cover pending, groundwater recharge should still be monitored. 
  • Agricultural, hydrological, ecological and fire conditions for the spring will be influenced by the extent of the drought recovery this winter. 

Figure 6. 8–14 Day Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks for December 19–25

Key Takeaway: Over the next 8-14 days, near-normal precipitation is favored for most of the region. Only western New York is expected to see slightly below normal precipitation. Temperature wise, near-normal conditions are favored for most of the region. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected for the northernmost portions of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Any rain or snow melt under slightly above-normal temperatures should allow for additional improvement to groundwater levels before winter freeze. 

ear normal precipitation is expected for most of the region. Western New York can expect a slightly below-normal (33% to 40%) chance for precipitation.

(33% to 40%) chance for above normal temperatures is expected in the northern most portions of New York, Vermont, New Hamps
8-14 day outlooks for December 19-25, 2024 show that of the region is favored to receive near-normal precipitation  (gray), with slightly below-normal (light brown) precipitation favored in western New York. Near-normal temperatures (gray) are more likely for most of the region, with slightly increased chances for above-normal temperatures (light orange) for the most northern portions of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Maps from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CU Boulder/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Natalie Umphlett, and Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast. 

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Northeast Regional Climate Center, U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Partner(s)
NOAA emblem

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Northeast Regional Climate Center logo

Northeast Regional Climate Center

U.S. Department of Agriculture logo

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

U.S. Geological Survey logo.

U.S. Geological Survey

American Association of State Climatologists

American Association of State Climatologists

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