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2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress (Part 8)

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  • Joined:
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    #1206005967

    Even if Hard Truths was technically eligible at EFAs (a lot of conflicting information here that’s hard to figure out), it’s possible it just wasn’t seen enough by European voters. As far as I’m aware it hasn’t had a proper release in any country and didn’t screen at any of the major European festivals besides London (it was of course rejected by Cannes and Venice).

    On a separate but related note, some of the criticisms I’ve seen here aimed at Jean-Baptiste’s performance are quite shallow, mostly resorting to generic descriptions of her character’s actions written in a negative tone. Something about her lacking ‘an arc or meaningful journey’ or whatever might sound like a valid critique at first but is really rather glib and clichéd (not to mention naïve). Nothing inherently wrong with critiquing her performance or the film as a whole but these takes are not it.

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    #1206006004

    Darling, that isn’t my dream lineup just a prediction. I wish for another outcome lmao

    Darling, are you predicting from your remote jungle or from somewhere in one of our urban cities?

    As the legend is back, the best actress category will be extremely exciting!

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    Jun 25th, 2023
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    #1206006025

    I think in general Mike Leigh actors have to have their films way over perform to get in. They got in only 1996 and 2004, despite tons of acclaim for his other films since then.

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    #1206006065

    Even if Hard Truths was technically eligible at EFAs (a lot of conflicting information here that’s hard to figure out), it’s possible it just wasn’t seen enough by European voters. As far as I’m aware it hasn’t had a proper release in any country and didn’t screen at any of the major European festivals besides London (it was of course rejected by Cannes and Venice). On a separate but related note, some of the criticisms I’ve seen here aimed at Jean-Baptiste’s performance are quite shallow, mostly resorting to generic descriptions of her character’s actions written in a negative tone. Something about her lacking ‘an arc or meaningful journey’ or whatever might sound like a valid critique at first but is really rather glib and clichéd (not to mention naïve). Nothing inherently wrong with critiquing her performance or the film as a whole but these takes are not it.

    If you’re overacting and chewing the scenery for 90 minutes with a thinly written character, don’t expect an Oscar nomination. For a role to stand out, it needs an arc—a beginning, a middle, and an end. The character should go through a full range of emotions: highs, lows, complex layers, and subtle nuances. A script needs to analyse the character and explain her motivations. Without that, you’re left with a one-note, shouty performance like Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.

    Oscar voters aren’t interested in a flat portrayal. They want to see range, depth, and emotional evolution—all of which are lacking here.

    There’s nothing wrong with a dark or negative character, but there needs to be some redeeming quality or resolution by the end. And Hard Truths doesn’t even have a proper ending.

    Feel free to dismiss the importance of a “character arc” or “meaningful journey,” but don’t cry if she’s snubbed on Oscar nomination morning.

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    #1206006069

    Darling, just a reminder that Sally Hawkins was disgustingly snubbed for Happy go Lucky.

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    #1206006076

    And yet, actors have won without those criteria, like JLaw and even DDL….go figure.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

    "I want you to know, I will love you as long as I breathe"
    Paul Atreides

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    #1206006080

    Darling, just a reminder that Sally Hawkins was disgustingly snubbed for Happy go Lucky.

    And Eddie Marsan.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

    "I want you to know, I will love you as long as I breathe"
    Paul Atreides

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    #1206006082

    And yet, actors have won without those criteria, like JLaw and even DDL….go figure.

    Werent DDL and JLAw in BP contenders? DDL was in a biopic, JLaw was 10000000x better than MJB in Hard Truths. MJB is not happening.

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    Nov 3rd, 2024
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    #1206006090

    And yet, actors have won without those criteria, like JLaw and even DDL….go figure

    And yet, countless talented actors have missed out on Oscar nods because of these very criteria—just look at the snubs of Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis, Margot Robbie, Amy Adams, Greta Lee and Jake Gyllenhaal.

    go figure

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    #1206006161

    Did anyone’s Election poll just dissappear where are my results?

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    #1206006167

    Darling, just a reminder that Sally Hawkins was disgustingly snubbed for Happy go Lucky.

    Happy-go-lucky literally fits the mold of what it’s being discussed for Marianne-Jean Baptiste’s performance – which I haven’t seen. The post said that she’s one-note, no story arch and all shouting. Sally Hawkins, great as she was in that film, was just an one-note ultra-annoying character with a thin story arch (being generous saying that) in a film that basically was almost a torture to watch. I hope Hard Truths is closer to Secrets and Lies than to Happy-go-lucky, but that post doesn’t give me any hopes.

    Still, Baptiste, missed the EFA noms (Hard Truths earned ZERO noms) while Swinton and Gascón were nominated (and their films SWEPT in nominations).

    1. Madison (lock)
    2. Gascón (lock)
    3. Swinton (semi-lock)
    4. Demi Moore (really likely)
    5. Julianne Moore/MJ Baptiste/Jolie/Kidman/Squibb
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    #1206006200

    Werent DDL and JLAw in BP contenders? DDL was in a biopic, JLaw was 10000000x better than MJB in Hard Truths. MJB is not happening.

    Uh huh.
    Tiffany was sooo deep and Abe was, Abe.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

    "I want you to know, I will love you as long as I breathe"
    Paul Atreides

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