Big Climate and its advertising agencies is trying to spin there was "little warning" before Hurricane Ida because it rapidly intensified due to global warming. They are wrong.  Oy! Big Climate is pulling out all of the stops on this one. Below is just one of them: Hat tip: Tomer Burg This story tries to push the false narrative that there was less than 72 hours warning.  Here is what this blog published 85 hours before landfall : Note the phrase, "major hurricane." And, "best chance of landfall is over Louisiana or Mississippi sometime Sunday..." There was plenty of warning.  Big Climate has never had a problem with being ghoulish. So, even while the storm was moving inland and crushing the Mississippi Delta, they were busy telling us that Hurricane Ida was caused by global warming for its political purposes. One of literally dozens of tweets attempting to tie Ida to global warming   You'll recall Ida was a Cat 4 with 150 mph winds. If global temperat...

While this is the NWS's forecast, I choose to recharacterize the risk descriptions.  Purple: Extreme risk of flash flooding. Red: High risk of flash flooding. Yellow: Medium risk. Green: Slight risk. This forecast is valid from tonight through 8am Thursday. I would add Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties of Maryland into the extreme risk area.  The extreme risk is so important because 80+ of flash flood deaths occur in extreme risk areas.   Update 443p,  ECMWF model shows torrential rains falling.  Here is the latest radar, 4:44pm. Moderate to, in places, heavy rain is falling over south central and southwest Pennsylvania. The heaviest rains in south central PA are expected to begin 4-8am Wednesday.  Please follow local weather information for updates. 

The brown areas have a significant risk of tornadoes. This includes Atlanta, Columbus, and Athens, Georgia. It also included the greater Washington, DC area across Delaware. Right now, it looks as if there will be an enhanced risk of tornadoes in the Middle Atlantic area tomorrow. 

There's relatively little change in the rainfall amount forecast for Pennsylvania and Maryland. Serious flooding will likely result. 

1972 Post-Agnes Flooding Flash flood watches (below) are in effect all the way from Mississippi to the Atlantic Coast of New England.  Green = flash flood watch.  In view of the state's history of terrible post-hurricane flash floods plus the meteorological conditions over the next few days, I am especially worried about Pennsylvania.  Here is the National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for the state, which is sufficient to cause flooding significant flooding. However, the ECMWF model, statistically the world's most accurate --which was not available at the time of the NWS' forecast -- forecasts much heavier rains (below) of more than twelve inches. This is enough to cause catastrophic flooding.  The Pennsylvania flooding threat is compounded by the fact that parts of the state have received as much as four inches of rain during the last three days (below), meaning a fast run-off of Agne's rain into already high rivers. In Harrisburg, the heavy rain is forecast...

The Damage From Hurricane Ida Was What we Feared.  But, That Isn't the Big Story. NOLA.com NOLA.com Hurricane Ida was everything we feared. NBC News has a well-done summary of the known, and extensive, damage,  here . One local official this morning described the damage left by Ida as "epic." It will take months or even years to fully recover. Once you have viewed the video, ask yourself:  how many people would you have expected to die in this storm? In 1957,  Hurricane Audrey  struck southwest Louisiana, largely without warning, with 125 mph winds. It killed more than 400 people.  Yesterday's Hurricane Ida, which was stronger than Audrey with 140 mph winds and struck a densely populated, highly vulnerable area, so far has killed just one person. While that death is a tragedy for the friends and family of that person, it is fair to speculate that more than a thousand people would have been killed (given the much greater population of New Orleans and southea...

Tragically, it looks like Ida turned into the monster we feared. Some items of importance: New Orleans has been battered by winds of 80 to 110 mph most of the late afternoon and evening. One hundred percent of New Orleans and Orleans Parish (they call counties parishes in Louisiana) has lost power . Officials report "catastrophic" damage to the transmission  network. That means the tall metal towers, etc., have been damage. That means days or even weeks without power. Across the state, more than two million people are without power. These giant electrical towers cannot be replaced overnight There are varying reports as to the condition of the pumps. There is a flash flood emergency warning out for inner city New Orleans and there are reports the backup power could fail. One major bridge has received structural damage.  At least two hospitals have lost their roofs. I-10 is completely closed due to debris.  We don't know about casualties yet.  The storm is finally sta...

Camille-related flooding in Richmond, 1969 Serious Inland Flooding Risks After 1969's Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, nearly as many were killed in flooding in the Middle Atlantic states as were by Camille's storm surge and winds.  We may be looking at a repeat -- except, with modern meteorology, we have a chance to stop the deaths. The swath of red-orange-amber-yellow colors will see flooding. Please monitor your local meteorologists for updated information over the next few days.  Three important points: Note the 7+ inches forecasted over Pennsylvania and Maryland. Especially, given the mountains and the Keystone State's history of hurricane-related flood history, pay attention to the weather closely.  From the Ohio River, south, most of the area already has very wet soil (map below) which will boost the flood potential. Darker blue = extremely wet. There is serious flooding potential in Arizona due to the remains of Pacific Hurricane Nora. There is a lesser chance in western ...

Radar 12:18pm CDT As of noon, Hurricane Ida made landfall at Port Fourchon. Louisiana. It had sustained winds of 150 mph with a lowest pressure of 929 millibars -- a Cat 4 storm. Port Fourchon is a major energy center for our nation.  Storm surge is forecasted to be up to 16 feet (!) which does not include tides and waves. Imagine being at the bottom of a sixteen foot deep swimming pool only with the water driven by hurricane-force winds. The destruction will be terrible.  Below is a map of forecast wind speeds. Click to enlarge.  Catastrophic structural damage due to the combination of storm surge and wind will occur. Power outages will last for at least days; 250,000+ people are already without power. That number will rise drastically. Over and above the storm surge will be freshwater flooding in the areas in orange or yellow. Some of the inland flooding could be life-threatening. Please monitor this situation.  Below is the relative flash flood risk. There is a hi...

Ida is an upper Category 4 hurricane and still strengthening. It has a good chance of making it to Cat 5 intensity.  Below is the radar at 9:34am. Catastrophic damage is likely between the two arrows as the still strengthening eye moves WNW then NW. Winds are 150 mph and the central pressure is down to 931 millibars.  New Orlean is just above the center of the image. I have highlighted the area with sustained 100+ mph winds and have hatched the area with winds of of 140 mph or stronger. It continues to move to the northwest. As the National Hurricane Center puts it: If you are in the path of Ida, you must shelter as you would for a tornado: Closet or bath in the center of the house. If you have a helmet of some type, wear it.  Below is the map of the forecasted wind speeds. There is a tornado watch outlined in red below. Power is already out in southeast Louisiana and those numbers will rise. Don't bother with a generator today. Once the storm has passed, follow the ...

And, I believe there is a better than 50/50 chance  it will reach Cat 5 intensity.  201a Satellite still shows lightning (colored symbols) around the eye which means the storm is still intensifying. Wind speeds were 130 mph with a pressure of 949mb.  The storm surge, so far, is higher than forecasted. Get away from the coast immediately!  The radar presentation is very impressive at 206a.

Storm Surge Flooding Has Begun as Ida Approaches the Coast.  Moderate flooding has been measured at Slidell. And, the surge is higher than forecast at this point. The high tide later this morning is 10:36am which will be very dangerous. Here is the position of the eye on radar. It is moving northwest pretty much as forecast. The strongest winds are in the right (east) half of the eye. Here is the image at 12:44am. Sustained winds are 115 mph and the pressure is down to 955 mb. The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen up until landfall. I believe the eye will make landfall during the late morning.  1:23am: winds are up to 129 mph and the pressure is down to 943mb. It is close to a Cat 4 storm now.  At 1am, the new ECMWF model shows the storm easily reaching Cat 4, perhaps upper Cat 4 status, by landfall. In addition to the storm surge, there will be major flash and river flooding.  This will be my last update for the night. 

Ida's Strength Has Not Changed Much the  Last Three Hours We can now see the center of the storm from the New Orleans radar.  The open circle was the position of the storm's eye at 8:15. The closed circle was at 9:45. The storm continues to move east northeast but will turn more northwest during the night.  Compare the satellite image from 9:40 to those earlier today in the postings below. The black surrounding the eye has grown which is an indication that the strengthening that has been forecast is about to occur.  The forecast of landfall has not changed much. Conditions will deteriorate during the night. Still expecting peak winds of around 130 mph.  There is a high tornado risk from midnight tonight to 7am Monday. FYI: The Hurricane Hunters have had to abort two missions today due to equipment problems. Not only that,  the NOAA Weather Radio in central Louisiana has failed. The Key West radar was out of service yesterday and NOAA suffered a major c...

The NWS NHC's forecast location of landfall has not changed since this morning. It could still come ashore 25 mi or so on either side of the forecast. I still look for the peak sustained winds to be ~140 mph with higher gusts. The areas that experience these winds will have catastrophic damage as they are equivalent to a high-end EF-3 tornado. There are sample photos at the very bottom of this post.  Below is a map of the approximate wind field with Ida. The 5:37pm satellite image shows a more symmetric eye than at 4pm.  NO = New Orleans; M = Mobile; T=Tampa; Mi=Miami At 4pm the maximum winds were 105 mph. The winds do not appear to have changed much since then. The central barometric pressure is 967 millibars. The pressure continues to fall rapidly with a fall of 4 mb in the last hour.  Below is the area covered by the storm surge warning. Maximum surge is forecast to be 15' which does not include waves and tides. High tide Sunday morning is 10:36am.  Below is the t...