MainContributors: C. R. Sampson, NRL, C. J. Neumann, SAIC, R. A. Jeffries, LT USN/NLMOC
Initially published as NRL Report NRL/PU/7541--95-0010, October 1995; Revision date: June 1995; HTML conversion date: 25 January 1998
One of the keys to safe and successful naval operations in the tropics is an understanding of tropical meteorology. The Tropical Cyclone Reference Guide is designed primarily as a ready reference for weather forecasters required to provide tropical meteorology support to staff commanders. This technical note provides an overview of tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasting. Subjects discussed include operational forecasting procedures, synoptic pattern recognition and TC track climatology.
KEY WORDS
tropical cyclone motion, tropical cyclone forecast center operations, tropical cyclone track climatology, Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide
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Section 1. INFLUENCES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION
1.1 Large-scale Steering and Its Determination
1.2 The Beta Effect
1.3 Tropical Cyclone Winds Affecting Steering
1.4 Eye Wobble
Section 2. TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION TERMINOLOGY
2.1 Straight Moving Tropical Cyclones
2.2 Recurving Tropical Cyclones
2.3 Left Turning Tropical Cyclones
2.4 Erratic Moving Tropical Cyclones
2.5 Equatorward Of The Ridge
2.6 On The Ridge
2.7 Poleward Of The Ridge
2.8 Binary Interaction
Section 3. MOTION FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
3.1 Slow or Looping Versus Fast Moving Tropical Cyclones
3.2 Recurvature Decisions Based On 200 hPa Charts
3.3 Acceleration Prediction
3.4 Satellite Image Interpretation
3.5 A Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Section 4. OPERATIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION FORECASTING
4.1 JTWC Motion Forecasting Procedures
4.1.1 Field Analysis Phase
4.1.2 Objective Techniques Analysis Phase
4.1.3 Construct Forecast Phase
4.2 NHC Motion Forecasting Procedures
4.2.1 Environmental Analyses Phase
4.2.2 Tropical Cyclone Analyses
4.2.3 Objective Aids Analysis
4.2.4 Construct Forecast Phase
4.3 Other Operational Centers
4.4 Single Station Motion Forecasting Procedures
APPENDIX B - TYPHOON ACCELERATION PREDICTION TECHNIQUE (TAPT)
APPENDIX C - A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO TRACK FORECASTING
APPENDIX D - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARTS
APPENDIX E - SOME METEOROLOGICAL TERMS and JARGONS
APPENDIX F - ABBREVIATIONS and ACRONYMS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This project is sponsored by the Oceanographer of the Navy through the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command Program Office, Program Element 0603207N. The authors wish to thank Dr. Jan-Hwa Chu, Mr. Stephen Bishop and Ms. Winona Carlisle of the Naval Research Laboratory, Rich Courtney of Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and Ronald Englebretson and Eleanor Estes of SAIC for their contributions.
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