BP Energy Outlook 2030: Europe Insights
BP Energy Outlook 2030: Europe Insights
BP Energy Outlook 2030: Europe Insights
Europe Insights
European fossil fuel consumption is set to drop as renewables gain share, but the regions import dependency remains near todays levels. Here are a few reasons why:
European energy demand rises by just 5%. The regions energy intensity is expected to decline by 29% by 2030. Demand for fossil fuels decline by 7% with losses in oil (-15%) and coal (-33%) overwhelming gains in gas (+26%). Use of renewables expands by 180%. Renewables will account for 188% of the net growth in energy demand, rising from 5% market share in 2011 to 13% by 2030. Renewables increase their share of fuels used in power generation from 10% in 2011 to 25% in 2030, taking share from coal and nuclear. Gas also gains share in the power sector, from 18% in 2011 to 21% in 2030, overtaking nuclear and then coal to take second place behind renewables. European CO2 emissions will drop more than 12% as gas and renewables increase their share of consumption. Import dependency increases from 46% today to 49% by 2030 and Europe will remain the largest net importer of natural gas in the world. European energy production falls by 1%. Europes share of global energy consumption falls from 16% in 2011 to 12% in 2030. Energy consumed in power generation rises by 19%; energy demand in transport declines by 9%. Production of all fossil fuels drop led by oil (50%), coal (-29%), and gas (-21%). Despite nuclear power declining by 4% the fuel overtakes gas as the dominant domestic energy source. Oils share of transport sector energy use falls from 96% in 2011 to 91% in 2030 as gas and biofuels each grab 4% of the market. Fossil fuels account for 69% of European energy consumption in 2030, down from 78% in 2011. Imports of oil (-4%) and coal (-38%) will decline but imports of gas rise by 74%. Europes global share in renewables is set to decline from 37% today to 26% in 2030, but the region will remain the global leader.
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