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    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12

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    Christan Lambert
    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Copyright 2013 John Wiley and Sons. Using decision--analysis tools Acquire experJse Debias your judgment Reason analogically Take an outsider's view Understand others' biases Urge others to improve decisions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12

    Uploaded by

    Christan Lambert
    77 views10 pages
    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Copyright 2013 John Wiley and Sons. Using decision--analysis tools Acquire experJse Debias your judgment Reason analogically Take an outsider's view Understand others' biases Urge others to improve decisions.

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    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Copyright 2013 John Wiley and Sons. Using decision--analysis tools Acquire experJse Debias your judgment Reason analogically Take an outsider's view Understand others' biases Urge others to improve decisions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    77 views10 pages

    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12

    Uploaded by

    Christan Lambert
    Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Copyright 2013 John Wiley and Sons. Using decision--analysis tools Acquire experJse Debias your judgment Reason analogically Take an outsider's view Understand others' biases Urge others to improve decisions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 10

    Judgment

    in Managerial Decision
    Making 8e


    Chapter 12
    Improving Decision Making

    Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons

    Strategies for BeDer Decisions

    Use decision-analysis tools


    Acquire experJse
    Debias your judgment
    Reason analogically
    Take an outsiders view
    Understand others biases
    Urge others to improve decisions

    Use Decision-Analysis Tools


    Linear models
    What are they?
    Why they help decisions
    Why we resist them

    Improving admissions decisions


    Improving hiring decisions

    Acquire ExperJse
    Most studies use inexperienced
    undergraduates
    Experience allows for feedback
    DiculJes in learning from feedback
    Accurate and immediate feedback rare
    Misremembering of forecasts

    Acquiring experJse

    Debias Your Judgment


    Strategies for reducing bias
    Consider the opposite
    Make decisions in groups
    Training in staJsJcal reasoning
    Make people accountable

    Unfreezing
    Change
    Refreezing

    Reason Analogically
    Abstract commonaliJes from situaJons
    Understand key situaJonal dierences
    Learn concepts with diverse training

    Take an Outsiders View


    Insider view versus outsider view
    Overprecision
    OpJmisJc esJmates of project compleJon
    Entrepreneurs overesJmaJng probability of
    success

    Outsiders make beDer decisions


    Ask for outsider advice

    Understand Biases in Others


    Select a comparison group
    Assess the comparison groups distribuJon
    Incorporate intuiJve esJmaJon
    Assess the decisions predicJons
    Adjust the intuiJve esJmate
    adjusted es)mate = group mean +
    correla)on (ini)al es)mate group mean)

    Nudge Wider Decisions


    Organ donaJons
    Increasing contribuJons to 401(k) plans
    Jointly evaluaJng employees

    Conclusion
    Refreeze your new decision-making strategies
    Understand the decisions of others
    Reward good decisions, not results

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