Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate

Additional Mathematics
School Based Assessment

Candidate Name: Scott

Table of Contents
TITLE

PAGE

Acknowledgements..3
Title..4
Purpose of Project....5
Data Collection6
Presentation of Data.....7
Analysis of Data...9
Conclusions12

Acknowledgements
The researcher would like to extend heartfelt thanks to the Heavenly Father, who has made
everything possible, from the start of this School Based Assessment to the completion; He has
gifted the researcher with knowledge, wisdom and understanding so as to attain the researchers
successful completion of this SBA.

Title:
Simple experiments to determine if the birthday paradox is applicable to real life

Purpose of Project
The birthday paradox states that in a room of just 23 people, there is a 50/50 chance that two
people will have same birthday. In a room of 75, there is a 99.9% chance of finding two people
with the same birthday.
Is this true? It surely does not seem plausible since; as an intelligent person would likely point
out ,the odds dont reach 100% until there are 366 people in the room (the number of days in a
year + 1) and 23 is about 6.28% of 366. So such a person might conclude that the odds of two
people in twenty-three sharing a birthday are about 6.28%.
This project aims to carry out some simple experiments to determine whether or not the birthday
paradox is applicable to real life.

Data Collection
A group of students were chosen for this experiment and data was collected using the following
method:

5 First Form classes, each consisting of 23 and more students, were given a blank card

and asked to record their birth date.

within this random group.

was repeated four times.

analyzed.
75 cards were then grouped after reshuffling all the cards and were then compared to
determine how many persons shared a birthday. The number of people who shared a

birthday was recorded.

In each of these experiments the number of times persons shared a birthday was not
predetermined, nor was any other deliberate consideration applied in the subsequent frequencies.
Every effort was taken to avoid bias in each of the experiments.

Presentation of Data
Table 1: Table Showing Observations Recorded From the Experiment with Groups of 23

Trial

Frequency of Shared
Birthdays

.
Birth Date

November 22
February 14

October 2

January 22

November 24

Table 2: Table Showing Observations Recorded From the Experiment with Groups of 75
Frequency of shared Birthdays
Trial

Birth Date

October 3
October 4
October 9
May 4
April 16

November 24
February 14

November 22
October 2
September 23
January 3
January 22
May 26
July 9

Table 3: Table Showing the Comparison between the Two Sample Sizes
Trial

Groups of 23
(Frequency)

Groups of 75
(Frequency)

Figure 1: Comparative Line Graph illustrating the Difference between the Sample Sizes
6
5
4
Frequencies

Groups of 23

Groups of 75

2
1
0
1

3
Trials

Analysis of Data
Choosing to increase the sample size for the second experiment, as described in Data Collection
took into account that the greater the sample size, the greater the representation of the sample
which allowed for there to be more shared birthdays since there would be a larger number of
people with the same 365 days.
Probability is a measure of how likely an event (a combination of one or more outcomes of a
random experiment) is to happen. A classical probability deal with equally likely outcomes
(equiprobable outcomes). This definition assumes that all outcomes are equally likely and the
sample space is finite.
The three Basic Laws of Probability are: P(A i) = 1 which states the sum of the probabilities
of all possible outcomes in a sample space is equal to one; 0 P(A) 1 says that the
probability of an occurring can be stated as a common fraction, decimal fraction or percentage;
and , P(A) = 1 P(A) where, the probability that an event A does not occur is one minus the
probability that the event A occurs.
So in the context of this problem, the P (at least two people from a group of people share a
birthday) = 1 - P (no two people from a group of people share a birthday); meaning the event
where at least two people in a group of people have the same birthday is complementary to all
birthdays being different for the group of people.
Thus we can calculate P (two people share a birthday in a group of people):
= 1 365 *364
3652
= 0.27%

Using the complement incorporates the possible number of days for which the birthdays are
different instead of the number of days for the birthdays are the same, and it incorporates all of
the combinations of two people sharing the same day, thus making the calculations less complex.
The first person has a possibility of 365 out of 365 days from which his or her birthday may be
selected and the second person has 364 out of 365 days on which his or her birthday may fall in
order to be different from the first persons birthday. Determining this probability from a group
of three people will follow the same format as the group of two people. The probability that the
third persons birthday will be different is 363 out of 365 days since there are only 363 days left
from which to choose in order to be different from the other two people.
So, the P (atleast two people will share the same birthday in a group of 23):

365
364
365
363
365
362
365
361
365
360
365
359
365
358
365
357
365
356
365
355
365
354
365
353
365
352
365
351
365
350
365
349
365
348
365

365
365
365
365
365
365

= 1- 49.95
=50.05%
This, proves that not only are humans narrow minded to think that the odds dont reach 100%
until there are 366 people in the room (the number of days in a year + 1) and 23 is about 6.28%
of 366, but this species is also blind to what is right in front of our eyes- probability. So far, the
paradox is true as the probability of 2 people having the same birthday in a group of 23 is 50%
both mathematically and practically (as shown in experiment one where 23 people participated).
The results of the first experiment are a true testimony that the birthday paradox is indeed
applicable to life- on every try there was a match or two of shared birthday (s).

As the sample size increases, it is expected that the probability will also increase. 75 birthday
were pulled for the second experiment.
So, the P (atleast two people will share the same birthday in a group of 75):

365
364
365
363
365
362
365
361
365
360
365
359
365
358
365
357
365
356
365
355
365
354
365
353
365
352
365
351
365
350
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
36

1- 0.05%

= 99.95%
The probability of a shared birthday in a group of 75 is 99.95%.

Conclusions
These experiments can be considered simplistic but reasonably effective for the purpose of
determining whether the birthday paradox is applicable to real life. The birthday paradox, though
it seems impossible and not probable in any way, is quite true, simple and can be applied to real
life and Queens College. It is true that in a room of just 23 people, there is a 50/50 chance that
two people will have same birthday. In a room of 75, there is a 99.9% chance of finding two
people with the same birthday. The simple experiments conducted revealed this.
It is recommended that one increase the sample size and solicit the birthday (day of week) of
persons in any further experiments to test the trueness of the birthday paradox.