Why Nuclear Electricity for India?

V S Arunachalam
Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,
Bangalore, INDIA
&
Department of Engineering & Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA
 Growth of India’s Power Sector
140 700

120 600
Installed Generation Capacity (GW)

Per Capita Consumption (kWh)

500
100
400
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

700,000
(Projected)
• Serious Growth after 60’s Number of Villages Electrified 600,000

• Generation 6th largest in world 500,000

• Per capita consumption low 400,000

• Close to 95% villages electrified 300,000

200,000

100,000

0
Ministry of Power, Government of India 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
 The Status

Wind Nuclear
2488 2720
• Installed Capacity > 120 GW

• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh Hydro

30135

• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh

Coal
Diesel 67166
• Coal dominant energy source (58%) 1196

Gas
11840

Ministry of Power, Government of India

 India’s Future Growth
• India needs sustained economic
growth > 8% to radically
improve its HDI

• Growth in last few years ~ 5%-

7%

• Growth hampered by
infrastructure: electric power
– Peak shortfall
– Average shortfall
– High T&D Losses:
– Unscheduled black-outs, Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total
especially in rural areas Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.

– Supply to agriculture sector

not metered and almost free
 Growth Areas
• Present growth is skills or resource driven
(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)

• Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering

• Rural sector to play a major role

(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving
efficiency)

• Infrastructure building
(roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)

• Manufacturing

The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future

growth
 Elasticity and Electric Power Needs
• Target economic growth ~ 8%
6

• Elasticity of electricity with GDP

Elasticity of Generation vs GDP

5

stabilizing at ~ 1.2 4

3
• Implications for future electric
power requirements by 2015: 2

– Capacity addition 1

– Investments 0
1951- 1956- 1961- 1969- 1974- 1980- 1985- 1992-
– Fuel mix 56 61 66 74 78 85 90 97

– Pricing and Policies

Review of State Electricity Boards
– T&D reforms
 Electric Power Requirements
2000 300

280
1800
260
1600
240

1400 220

Capacity Needed (GW)

Generation (billion kWh)

200
1200
180

1000 160

140
800
120

600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Year
Key GDP Growth Rate
Key GDP Growth Rate
0.05 0.08
0.05 0.08
0.06 0.09
0.06 0.09
0.07 0.1
0.07 0.1

Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:

Installed Capacity 250 GW
Generation 1500 billion kWh
Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh
 The Task Ahead
• Need to add 135 GW in ten years 25000

– 13,500 MW required per annum 20000

Annual Capacity Addition (MW)

Total Capacity addition required

– ~ One power plant per month 15000

– China adds one per week !! 10000

5000 Annual added capacity

– Maximum added till now is
4,600 MW (One in four months)
0
1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014
2004
 Fuel Supply: Options for Future
• Coal Fuel Present In 2015
– Conventional
– Gasification Coal 67,166 MW ?
• Natural Gas Gas 11,840 MW ?
• Hydro Hydro 30,135 MW ?
• Nuclear
– PHWR + FB + AHWR Nuclear 2,720 MW ?
– PLWR Wind 2,488 MW ?
• Wind
Biomass 1,000 MW ?
– On-shore
– Off-shore Solar - ?
• Biomass TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW
• Solar
– Photo voltaic
– Concentrating Solar Power
 King Coal !
• Reserves
– Proven 91 billion Tons
Others
– Indicated 116 billion Tons 13%

– Inferred 37 billion Tons

Madhya Jharkhand
– TOTAL 245 billion Tons Pradesh 29%
7%

• Coal reserves: > 250 years at present

levels of consumption Chattisgarh
16%
Orissa
24%
• Concentrated in Eastern India West Bengal
11%
 Indian Coal Quality
Heating Ash Sulfur
Value Content
• High ash: 25%-45%
(BTU/lb) (%) (%)
Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25
• Low sulfur < 0.5%

• Low energy content Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40

• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61

• Issues with coal:

Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5
– Ash disposal: annual ash
generation > 90 million tons

– CO2 emissions
 Coal: Future Scenarios
700

• Projections of coal demand (2015): 600

Accelerated growth scenario

Coal Requirement in Power Sector (Million Tons)

– High growth : 580 MT
500

– BAU scenario : 380 MT

– Domestic production will not be 400

Business as Usual
enough. Imports needed 300

200 Coal Transport by Railways

• Issues:
100

– Ash generation > 200 million Tons

– CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons
0

1994

1998

2003

2005

2008

2010

2013
2014

2015
2016
1995

1996
1997

1999
2000

2001
2002

2004

2006
2007

2009

2011
2012
– Particulate and NOx emissions
(presently not regulated)
– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail
transportation stagnation
 India’s CO2 Emissions
• India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in
2003: 35%
– Coal 666 MMT US
– Petroleum 305 MMT 30%

– Natural Gas 53 MMT

Share of Global CO2 Emissions (%)

25%
Western Europe

• India’s CO2 emissions rapidly growing 20%

– Trebled during 1981-2001 15%

China
Share of global emissions 10%
India China Total
India
5%
1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%
2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93% 0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

EIA, US Department of Energy

• India and China presently not subject to

mandatory cuts in CO2
– However future may not be so
 Options with Coal
• Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue.
– Availability
– Cheap

• The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints
of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.
Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%
Installed Capacity Coal Required CO2 Emissions
of Coal (GW) (Million MT) (Million MT)

Upper Case Coal still ~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT

contributes 60%
of capacity
Lower Case Aggressive ~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT
deployment of
nuclear and
natural gas
technologies
 Hydro-Electricity

• Inferred potential > 120 GW

• Installed capacity 30 GW

• Most big projects are in North-

Eastern states of Arunachal
Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and
J&K

• Problems of rehabilitation and

resettlement with large projects

• Environmental issues
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
• Water sharing agreements with
neighbors
 Hydro-Electric Potential
Details of projects under construction
Ongoing and Planned Projects State Capacity
(MW)

Projects awaiting 2,570 MW Dulhasti J&K 390

clearance and
Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140
government approval
Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510
Projects at DPR and 11,620 MW
infrastructure Loktak Downstream Manipur 90
development stage
Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800
Projects under survey 11,000 MW
Sewa-II J&K 120
and investigation
Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000

Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132

Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520

Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015
TOTAL 4702
 Natural Gas
• Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide
• Indian statistics (2004-05):
Consumption: > 31 BCM/year
Primary uses:
Power 41%
Fertilizer 32%
Sponge Iron 4%
Other 23%
Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)

Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on

price, of course)
 Turkmenistan CENTGAS
- to Pakistan TAPS

11 - onwards TAPS
to India (across water)
Afghanistan
Consumption Gas supply
center

11 Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan 22 Iran
Iran 33 Oman
Oman 44 Qatar
Qatar
Iran

Multan
India’s Gas Pipelines
Pakistan
New Delhi
22

44

Qatar Gwadar Karachi

India
Indore
Indore
Baroda
33

Oman

Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)

Natural Gas
Pipelines
Gas Authority of India Limited
 Imports of Gas

• LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices

remain high
– 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power
– 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power
thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power
• Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity
– Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses
as well
• More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas
• Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies
 Biomass
• India predominantly agricultural
country.
• Annual production of agro-forest and Feedstock Examples Potential Installed
processing residues: 350 million tons
• Power generation potential > 22,000 Agro-forest Wood chips, 17,000 MW 50 MW
residues mulberry,
MW coconut
shells
• Advantages:
Processing Rice husk, 5,000 MW 1000 MW
– Decentralized generation: close to residues sugarcane
rural load centers. bagasse
– Technology reasonably well
developed
– Environmentally friendly: No net CO2
emissions
 Biomass Conversion Technologies
• Gasifier-reciprocating engine 50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka
– Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible
– Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for
ignition
• Cost of electricity is high
– Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas
– Overall efficiency ~ 20%
– Largest gasifier 100 kW

• Fluidized bed combustion boilers

– Rice husk and bagasse
– 25%-30%
– Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in
various sugar mills
– Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!
 Biomass for Decentralized Rural
Power
• Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW
– ~ 75% is irrigation pumps
– Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few
hours a day
• Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW
– Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust
• Cost of generation reasonable
– $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh
• BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:
– Economics unviable due to low PLF
– People not willing to pay when state gives free !
– Loss of organic fertilizer on land
• Good potential from bagasse and husk:
– Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.
 Wind Energy
World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
18,000

• Gross potential : 45,000 MW

I n s ta lle d C a p a c ity (M W )
16,000

(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas) 14,000

• Technical potential : 13,000 MW 12,000

(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas) 10,000

8,000

• Rapid growth in installed capacity 6,000

from 1990s
4,000

2,000

• India ranks 5th in the world

N e th e rla n d s
G e rm a n y

D e n m a rk
0

C h in a
S p ain

In d i a

Jap an
It a l y

UK
US
– Present installed capacity ~ 3000
MW Global Wind Energy Council

• Site selection issues:

– More from fiscal benefits than from
power
– Many plants not operating
– Low average load factor~13%
 Wind Speed Maps of Selected
Countries

Denmark

In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2)

in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2)
and US US
 Off-shore Wind in Europe
Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance Remarks
from Shore
(km)
Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed
UK 60 MW 4–8m 2.3 km Completed
Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed
Denmark 5 MW 3–5m 6 km Completed
Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed
Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned
Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned
Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned
Ireland 520 MW 2–5m 10 km Partly
complete

• Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.

• Wind speeds higher
• Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !
India: Off Shore Wind Scenario
B a th y m e tr y o f In d ia n S e a s
D is ta n c e (K m )
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

2400 2400
D e p th (m e tre s )
2200 2200

2000 2000

1800 1800

D is ta n c e (K m )

D is ta n c e (K m )
1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600

400 400

200 200

0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

D is ta n c e (K m )
Nuclear Power: The Present Status
14000

12000 Planned

10000
Installed Capacity (MW)

8000

6000

4000 Presently installed

2000

0
1969 1973 1981 1984 1986 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2006 2015
Indian Nuclear Program: The Present
Status
• 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation
• 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission
• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under
commission
• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test
Reactor (FBTR)
• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for
500MWe under construction
• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using
(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of
design approval; construction soon to begin.
 Indian Nuclear Program: The
Constraints

• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40

years
• Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global
technologies, materials or services
• Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000
MWe annually
• Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel
• Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited
 Why Cooperate?
• India needs electric power now, more than
ever, for human development and growth
• It must generate power from all energy
sources
• Excessive and continued dependence on
coal contributes to environmental
degradation & global warming
• Limitations of renewable energy sources
 Why Cooperate?

• Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power &

Responsibility
• R&D: cooperation and Collaboration
• Bilateral trade & economic issues
• Sharing global energy resources
• Environmental concerns
• Shared vision: secular, democratic &
caring society
 Why Cooperate?

Climate change is a greater threat to

humanity than terrorism, and no less
urgent.
---David King, Science Advisor to Prime
Minister of UK
 An Action Plan
Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen
technologies mature
• Minimizing wastage; energy conservation;
Development of Energy Plan
• Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10
years)
• Investments in R&D to make renewable
technologies efficient, sustainable
&affordable
 An Action Plan
• Strict enforcement of export controls of
technologies, equipment and services
• Nuclear power reactors under international
safeguards
• Collaboration in developing technologies
for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power
generation
• Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives
 Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition
Wind Biomass Solar thermal
Wind Biomass Solar thermal
1.99% 1.19% 0.40%
1.99% 1.19% 0.40%
Hydro Hydro
15.96% 15.96%

Nuclear
5.06%
Coal
Nuclear
50.90%
14.60%
Diesel
0.48%
Coal
60.44% Diesel
Gas 0.48%
14.49% Gas
14.49%

• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons

• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons
• ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !
Primary energy consumption per
capita
 What If….
India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?
Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh) Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)

US > 14,000 5000 2002

2013
India 600
4000
China 1300

3000
Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013
• Expected Carbon Emission: 2000

14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times

present global emissions !!) 1000

• CO2 concentration > 400 ppm

0
• Temperature rise > 0.5 C OECD India China Others

(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)

 What If
India & China Guzzle Oil?

Present Number of Cars per 1000 Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)

US > 750
160 2003
India 4 2013

China 8
120

Million Barrels per Day

Target: 250 Cars per 1000
80
• World Oil Consumption: 387
Million Barrels a Day 40
• At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day

0
• Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !! India China US Other Others
• At Present 42 years OECD
I saw God In the smile of the poor
Mahatma Gandhi
The cost of Power

6
Cost of Generation
(Rs per kWh) 5

4 Utility's Cost of Supply

2
Residential Tariff
1
Irrigation Tariff
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Plant Capacity (kW)