This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020

research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 792059

Oct. 26th
Overview of the Glogal PV Market
(14:30-16:30)
 Overview of the Glogal PV Market

1. Climate Mitigation Scenarios

Outlook of PV capacity at the horizon 2040

2. Global PV Market
PV electricity cost analysis
Overview of the industrial upstream sector

3. Technology landscape
From cells and modules to system

4. Positioning GOPV developments

GoPV Project | 1st TRAINING COURSES
TECHNICAL FOCUS ON FUTURE SOLAR PV SYSTEMS

October 26-29th 2020

 A brief history of energy consumption and GDP

World energy consumption and GDP growth

Modern renewables Energy consumption per capita (MJ) and GDP per
Nuclear electricityl
capita in UK

GDP per capita (£2013)

100000
hydroelectricityl
Primary energy consumption (TWh)

90000

GDP (Billions international dollars)

Natural gas
80000
Oil 70000
Coal 60000
First Watt’s steam engine
50000
Traditional biofuels
40000
30000 3000
20000
Drake’s well 10000 1000
0
1560 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850
Human Draught animals Firewood wind Coal
sources: Energy consupltion : Wrigley (2010); (data refers to England and Wales)
GDP: Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton and Van Leeuwen (2015) via Bank of England;
(data refers to England until 1700 and UK from then onwards)

• GDP growth and energy consumption are intimately linked

• Abundant and cheap energy is the engine of GDP growth

How to maintain GDP growth while preserving the planet?

SÉMINAIRE
 GHG emission driving factors: the Kaya decomposition

Gross Domestic Product per capita

Population

CO2 intensity of Energy

Energy intensity of the GDP unit

Source: Global energy outlook 2020, RFF

Pop

SÉMINAIRE
 The Energy transition: Three main scenarios

(Paris agreement)

SÉMINAIRE
 Overview of popular models of energy outlook

C
No-change

Evolving
Stated policies
Reform

Rapid transition
Sustainable development
Source: Global Energy Outlook 2020, RFF Renewal

SÉMINAIRE
 The Two Pillars of the Energy Transition

CO2 intensity of Energy

Kaya Model
Energy intensity of the GDP unit

Energy efficiency Decarbonised energy

Energy Efficiency AND Renewables

SÉMINAIRE
 Outlook of Electricity generation
Annual electricity production by generation type

2040

All scenarios agree on : a large electrification of uses

a large increase of PV in electricity production

6 – 9 PWh/yr of solar electricity in 2040 (vs 720 TWh in 2019)

SÉMINAIRE
Deployment of Renewables : Solar and Wind
 Power Generation and Installed Capacity

Capacity Factor
Depends on:
( ) Localisation (resource, weather)
CF = type of use (base or make-up)
× ×

Capacity Factor by primary energy source in France

80% 2019
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Wind Solar Hydro Modern
Source: Bilan électrique 2019 RTE Biomass

SÉMINAIRE
 Evolution of PV Capacity Factor

More PV in sunnier areas

Technical progress on PV components
Improved energy availabity of PV plants

Installations in less favourable areas

(Large diffusion of PV around the world)

Source: Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, IRENA

2020 CF
-
2040 Capacity Factor y18-20%

5-6 TW of PV to produce 9 PWh/yr

7-8 TW of PV to produce 12 PWh/yr
SÉMINAIRE
 GLOBAL PV MARKET

SÉMINAIRE
 A Recent History but Fast Growing PV Market

700
Cumulative PV installations (GW)
600
• 600 GW of PV installed in 2019
500 • Accelerated growth since 2013
China took the lead in annual growth
400 • In 2016, India and RoW joined
300

200

100
Source: PV Status Report 2019, IEA PVPS
0

EU JPN US RoW China India

SÉMINAIRE
 PV is a cost competitive technology

LCOE of Utility-Scale Renewable Energy Sources 2010 and 2019

PV electricty cost decreased by >80%

from 2010

PV is at the lower range of fossil fuel

electricity generation,
below 60 €/MWh (calculated with a
WACC of 7,5%)

Source: Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, IRENA

SÉMINAIRE
 Recent PV Cost Evolution and Short Term Outlook

SÉMINAIRE
 PV Electricity Cost Breakdown

Utility scale PV - LCOE Breakdown

(calc for a WACC = 5%)

16% 2%
29%
14%

15% 15%
9%

module inverter BOS EPC

soft costs O&M capital
Source: PV Status Report 2019
Source: K. Bodis et al,
Renew. Sust. Energy Rev., 114 (2019) 109309
System cost accounts for 56% of LCOE
• Inflation rate
Large impact of Financing of utility scale projects on LCOE • Profitability assessment
• Risk assessment (technical, geo-political, ..)

Inceasing development of PV and maturity Decreasing WACC

y5% for OECD countries in 2020

SÉMINAIRE
 Evolution of PV System cost

PV system cost (€2019/kW)

3000

2500
Cost decrease
2000 2012  2019
Module -81%
1500 Inverter -87%
BOS -68%
1000
EPC -56%
Soft Costs -45%
500
Total PV system -71%
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
module inverter BoS EPC soft costs
Source: PV Status Reports 2012-2019

PV components price fall drives the competitivity of solar PV

SÉMINAIRE
 Evolution of PV Component’s price Illustrated by the Module
Learning Curve

Learning curve eq.

Pt = P0 (St/S0)-b
PR = 2-b
LR = 1 - PR
2005 – 5$/W

Module price decreases by LR %

every doubling of cumulative shipments

2019 – 0.22 $/W

SÉMINAIRE
 Module price learning curve

Module Price 2010

($2019/W)
1,00 y = 24,884x-0,72 LR = 39,3%

1 TW of installed PV possible in 2021

2018
2019 !! Module at 0.15 – 0.16 $/W !!
2020
2021
Module Price ($2019/W) Learning curve Projected price 2022
0,10
10 100 1000
Cumulative Shipments (GW)

SÉMINAIRE
 Analysis of the module learning curve

Module price decrease due to:

• First, Productivity gains
• Second, efficiency gains

SÉMINAIRE
 PV Market Analysis: Production and Production Capacity

Source: PV Status Report 2019

Continuous increase of the PV module production

China + South Asia dominate the production
EU accounts for 3% of module production

Development of production capacities covering

the whole value chain:
• Polysilicon
• Ingot-wafer
• Cell
• Module
• Inverter

SÉMINAIRE
 The PV Module Production Landscape

PV module annual shipments and Top 10 manufacturer market share 2019

160 100% shipments
90% Ranking Company (GW)
140
80% 1 Jinko Solar 14,2
120
70% 2 JA Solar 10,3
100 60% 3 Trina Solar 9,7
80 50%
4 Longi Solar 9
60 40%
5 Canadian Solar 8,5
30%
40 6 Hanwha Q Cells 7,3
20%
20 10% 7 Risen energy 7

0 0% 8 First Solar 5,5

9 GCL 4,8

10 Shungfeng 4
Total annual shipment (GW) Market share top10(%)
From combined sources: iea, renewable energy world, global data, …

From 2014, strong market consolidation

Rise of players > 10 GW
Vertically integrated manufacturers dominate the market ….
 PV Module Price and production landscape

Historical evolution of top10 share and module price

4,500 100%

4,000 90%

3,500 80%

70% • Very large production plants are being

3,000
60%
developed in China
2,500
50%
• Economy of scale allows production cost
2,000
Rise of Chinese Huge investments 40%
reduction
1,500 Production Rise of multi GW players • Fast Investment pace push the upcoming
30%
1,000
of newest technologies
20%
0,500 10%

0,000 0%

price/W (€/W) Market share top10(%)

 Vertical integration

19
20
ip dule
Company ts

.
ev
en

tD
o
m

Pr e
m

ul

ec
er
t

od
go

af
sh

oj
ll
Ce
W

M
Jinko Solar 14,2 GW In
X X X X X
JA Solar 10,3 GW X- X X X -
Trina Solar 9,7 GW X X X X X +trackers, inverters
Longi Solar 9 GW X X X X X
Canadian Solar 8,5 GW X X X X X
Hanwha Q Cells 7,3 GW - - X X X + polysilicon
Risen energy 7 GW - X X X X
First Solar 5,5 GW NA NA NA X X
GCL 4,8 GW X X X X X + polysilicon
Shunfeng 4 GW - X X X X
Etc….
Most important PV players have chosen to be vertically integrated
 The Inverter Market

Annual Inverter Shipments and Top 10 Market Share

140 90%
80%
120
70%
100
Top 10

60%
80 50%

60 40%
30%
40
20%
20
10%
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
total shipments (GWAC) top 10 market share

From 2013, fast market consolidation

3 players > 10GW
5/10 top players outside China
 The Inverter Learning Curve

Evolution of Central Inverter Price (€2019) vs Cumulative

Shipments (GW)
1
Inverter Price (€2019/W)

Not as much analyses compared to modules

y = 14,999x-0,943 LR = 48%
0,1 but an even faster cost decrease

collected from JRC PV status

0,01
10 100 1000
Cumulative Shipments (GW)
 The Polysilicon Market

From Electronic Era to PV Era

Oversupply + low cost chinese From 2013 continuous decline

production of cost of PV polysilicon
 Polysilicon:
From western production for electronics to eastern production for PV

Polysilicon Top producers in 2004 and 2020

120 000
2020
The Big Six
100 000
16 plants (13 CN, 2 DE, 1 US)
Production (Tons)

80 000

60 000

40 000 2004
The Seven Sisters
20 000 10 plants (5 US, 3 JP, 1 DE, 1 IT)

Tongwei and GCL are also

producing ingots, wafers*, cells
and modules
* For GCL only
 PV market analysis and forecast

A PV market characterized by long lasting production over-capacities

The general trend to over-capacities will continue to put pressure on prices
 PV market analysis and forecast

Production and Capacity for PV in 2018 (GW/year)

200
180
Production and Capacity for PV in 2018 (GW/year) 160
poly-Si ingot wafer cell module 140
World production 120
115 115 115 116 116
100
World capacity
165 156 156 172 184 80
EU capacity 60
17 1,1 0,5 0,2 6
FR capacity 40
- 0,25 0,05 - 1
Source: IEA-PVPS Trends in photovoltaic applications – 2019 and CEA
20
-
poly-Si ingot wafer cell module
world production world capacity EU capacity FR capacity

Production over-capacities in the whole upstream PV sector

Less competitive fabs are retired (ex : OCI closed its Korean fab of PV Poly-Silicon)
 Continuing Investment Dynamic in China

source: PV Tech 210 mm 182 mm A new investment dynamic caused by

Cell Expansion Capacity
120 GW 90 GW the increase in wafer size
Announced in 2020

Few examples:

Wafer June 2020

Cell & Module Module

42 GW
attained end
2019

Announced capacity expansions to continue with price pressure

 PV industry development and climate mitigation target

5-6 TW of PV to produce 9 PWh/yr

Deep Transition / Sustainable scenario
7-8 TW of PV to produce 12 PWh/yr

Outlook of annual installation rate for a scenario at 10 TW of installed capacity

PV industry has a development pace above the

requirements to fulfil the sustainable
Foreseable
production capacity development scenarios
 GLOBAL PV MARKET
TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE
Generality on Photovoltaic Module

Frame (aluminium)
Front Side (glass)
Encapsulant (transparent soft polymer)
Interconnected PV cells
Encapsulant (transparent soft polymer)
Junction Box (+ cables)
Rear Side (polymer laminate or glass)
Different Cell Technologies

SHJ
 Cell efficiency global trend

Average Stabilized Efficieny values for Si Solar Cells in

Mass Production
29%

27%
Continuous improvement of
25% average cell efficiency causes
turnover in dominant cell
23%
technology
21%

19%

17%
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

BSF p mc-Si BSF p mono-Si PERX p mc-Si PERX p mono-Si

PERX n mono-Si SHJ n mono-Si RCC n mono-Si tandem
Source: ITRPV
 Decreasing Use of Raw Materials for Cost Reduction

Silicon Silver

Wafer thickness Trend of Silver Quantity per Cell

Kerf loss
Cell efficiency
Silicon recycling Improved conductivity of emitter
Improvements in silver pastes and
screens

Historical data Other symbols: forecast values

Material efficiency is continuously improving

key to reduce cost and environmental impact
 The Revolution of Large Area Wafers and 500W+ (and beyond) Modules

Wafer Size
source: PV Tech 210 mm 182 mm
Cell Expansion Capacity
120 GW 90 GW
Announced in 2020
44,1cm²
33,1 cm²
25,8 cm² 27,4 cm²
24,4 cm² 25,2 cm²

156,75 mm 158,75 mm 161,7 mm 166 mm 182 mm 210 mm

• G1 wafer = industry standard in 2020; M2 fast decline

• 166 mm (M6) launched by Longi mid 2019
• 210 mm (G12) launched by TZS in Aug 2019
• 182 mm (M10) adopted by 7 leading companies in June 2020
• 210 mm supported through the creation of 600W+ Photovoltaic Open Innovation Ecological Alliance ( 57 members in sept. 2020)

Four main wafer sizes will coexist in the next fex years:
G1, M6, M10, G12
 What size of wafers for high power modules?

Industrial move very recent, many options on the table

Evolution difficult to predict

Possible scenario

1. 2019-2020: M2 (previous std for decades) rapidly

declines

2. 2020-2022: G1 and M6 are transitory industrial solutions

(compatible with present production lines)

3. From 2022 : M10 and G12 coexist as market std (new

production lines to be fabricated and started)
 The Push to High Power Modules

Source: Trina Solar, Vertex module presentation

From 2019 H1, boom in module power increase

General trend followed by all tier 1 module manufacturers
Targeted market: Power plants
 Some 500W+ modules

Module
Cell Wafer Size n° equiv, Efficiency area
Company Product Cell format output
Technology mm Full cells % m²
W
Trina Solar Vertex PERC 210 1/3 cut 50 505 21.1 2.39
JinkoSolar Tiger Pro PERC 182 1/2 cut 72 540 21.3 2.53
Longi Solar Hi-MO 5 PERC 182 1/2 cut 72 540 21.1 2.56
Maxeon Performance 5 PERC 210 shingled 57,1 545 21.1 2.58
Canadian Solar HiKu6 PERC 182 1/2 cut 72 545 21.3 2.56
JA Solar DeepBlue 3,0 PERC 182 1/2 cut 72 545 21.1 2.59
Talesun BISTAR PRO PERC 182 1/2 cut 72 545 21 2.59
Risen TITAN + PERC 210 1/2 cut 55 550 21 2.61
Trina Solar Vertex PERC 210 1/2 cut 55 550 21.2 2.61
JinkoSolar Tiger Pro PERC 182 1/2 cut 78 585 21.4 2.73
Canadian Solar HiKu6 PERC 182 1/2 cut 78 590 21.3 2.77
Talesun Bistar Pro PERC 182 1/2 cut 78 590 21 2.81
Risen TITAN + PERC 210 1/2 cut 60 600 21.2 2.83
Trina Solar Vertex PERC 210 1/2 cut 60 605 21.4 2.83
JinkoSolar Tiger Pro TR TOPCon 182 1/2 cut 78 610 22.3 2.73
Jolywood Niwa Super TOPCon 210 1/2 cut 78 615 22.1 2.78
JA Solar JumboBlue PERC 210 1/3 cut 80 800 20.5 3.92

 21%+ for PERC modules ; 22%+ for premium TOPCon modules

 Size of modules from 2.5 up to 2.8 m² Utility-scale powerplant market :

Obj = reduction of LCOE
 How High Power Modules Reduce LCOE
Some presentations available:
JA Solar: https://www.pv-tech.org/products/ja-solars-deepblue-3.0-panels-drive-pv-power-plant-lcoe-down-to-new-levels
Trina Solar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWuenRVdGIo
Longi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V76nPJvRQCg
Jinko: https://www.pv-tech.org/products/jinkosolars-tiger-pro-modules-designed-to-lead-lcoe-reductions-with-max-580

Cost (Module + e-BOS + s-BOS + EPC + Soft + O&M) – residual value

LCOE =
Producible

Qualitative impacts of high power modules on power plant LCOE

Module lower cost per Watt higher producible High power modules
less combiner less inverters Large area
e-BOS less cables
boxes (when lower Voc) High voltage or High current
less mounting more costly
s-BOS structures
less land use
fasteners
less labour Compatibilty issues with rest of PV
EPC (construction/installation)
components:
O&M less components Tracker (or fixed structure)
Inverter
 Assessment of LCOE gains
Highly dependant on hypotheses (module, plant location, fixed/tracker, monofacial/bifacial, etc)
Calculations made by module producers
Values to be considered as a trend

Study case 1: Deep blue series from JA Solar

182 mm cells
166 mm cells
72 cells half cut
158 mm cells 72 cells half cut
72 cells half cut

S = 2.01 m² S = 2.23 m² S = 2.55 m²

Voc = 50.1V Voc = 49.7V Voc = 49.7V
Isc = 10.4A Isc = 11.4A Isc = 13.4A
-2.1%
-3.3%
Study case 2: Low voltage Vertex module from Trina Solar
Schematic view of a PV plant 5x11 layout allows to decrease Voc down to 38V (vs
50V for 72 cells layout)
 BOS and LCOE savings assessment

Combining savings from high power and low voltage -6 to -8% LCOE
 Massive adoption of large area wafers and high power modules by PV industry
will contribute to further decrease LCOE of PV plants …

It requires adaptations/modifications of: Mono-Cz Ingot pullers and wafering equipments

Cell and module fab lines
Glass and foil sizes
Mounting structures
Fasteners
Inverters
Plant design
Installation procedures

…. Bifaciality and high efficiency matter also

 Bifacial Cells and Modules

PERC cell structure makes bifaciality easy

Forecast of market share of bifacial products

Same production cost

Monofacial modules Bifacial modules Bifacial cells

Bifacial p-PERC cell 210 Bifacial modules will develop in PV plant market
mm (Aikosolar)
 albedo of various surfaces

C. Deline et al, PVSC-46, Chicago, IL 2019

Many values circulate (too optimistic?)

Depending on irradiation cdts and albedo
 Bifacial gain assessment

Bifacial gain measured at INES on 3kW systems

fixed mounting
1 year measurements

Grass White gravel

Monofacial Bifacial
30° tilt south 90° tilt E/W
Bifacial gain +10% +12% +19% -10%

LCOE savings < 19%

=

LCOE savings (higher s-BOS cost)

 Bifacial + tracker gain
Combining bifacial gain and tracking gain? At what extent?
Longi has communicated on 27% overall gain when combining bifacial PERC modules and 1 axis tracker (HSAT)

(latitude 36° N)

Bifacial and tracking gains add up

51
 Global implementation of ‘bifacial + tracking’ solution
Recent study: Rodriguez-Gallegos et al. Joule 4, 1514-1541 (2020)

Bifacial + Tracking can

• boost yield by up to 35%
• lower LCOE by up to 20%

Tilted single axis trackers overperform

horizontal trackers except close to
equator
Bifacial TSAT vs bifacial HSAT: Energy yield difference

Specific site characteristics can modify deeply the simulation results

Solar Tracker’s Market Outlook

1-axis tracking has a market share of 30%

Share of 40% is projected for 2030

(appears conservative when looking on potential
gains)
 Positioning GOPV Developments

Utility scale PV - LCOE Breakdown GOPV General/societal objectives

(calc for a WACC = 5%)

2%
• Reduction of the cost of PV electricity for increasing its
16%
29% competitiveness and its share in the European electricity mix
14%

15% 15% • Creation of added value for European industrial players to be

9%
competitive on the global market

module inverter BOS EPC

soft costs O&M capital
Source: PV Status Report 2019

GOPV quantified objectives at system level Development of advanced components

for GHI= 1900 kWh/m²/year

 GOPV Module

• Bifacial HJT module 72 cells layout (M2): 370W

• Cell thickness: 120 mm; Ag per cell: 140 mg; 6 BB
• Cell interconnection by glueing technology
• ECA per half-cell: 30 mg (ribbon width: 0.8 mm)
• Industrial stringer prototype
• Glass-glass encapsulation
• AR/AS coating : Closed-cell mesoporous silica
 GOPV Inverter
166kVA multi-MPPT Inverter base on Flying Capacitor topology

DC/AC Power Board DC/DC Power Board

Up to 1500VOC PV string, inject full power on 800V 3~ grid ( 600V and 690V 3~ grids @ reduced power)
Multi MPPT: 2 PV strings per MPPT, 8 MPPT in parallel (=16 strings)
Integrate SiC devices
 GOPV Tracker

2P 1-axis tracker (HSAT)

28 modules /tracker
Tracker structure from Weathering Steel (vs Hot Dip Galvanized steel for std)
Module support from WS and/or GFRP (Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer)
Structural behaviour validated by wind tunnel tests
 GOPV O&M Toolkit

• Failure detection and diagnosis models

• Predictive maintenance tool
• Economic model of PV plant operation
GOPV Partnership
 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 792059

Thank you for your attention!

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