IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Regions Africa | Asia | Australasia | Europe | Central and South America | North America | Polar Regions | Small Island States Sectors Agriculture & Food Security | Human Health | Hydrologic Resources & Extreme Weather | Coastal Resources | Security | Species, Diversity, and Ecosystems As the increasing intensity of human activities causes the climate to change, the temperatures, rainfall, storminess, sea levels and more that society and the natural world experience will be altered. Global warming during the 21st century is projected to be several times more than the 0.6C (1F) occurring over the 20th century; similarly, sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be a few times larger than the 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) occurring since 1900. What happened to the climate in the past and what changes are projected for the future changes as a result of combusting coal, oil, and natural gas and from disturbing the natural land cover are encompassed in summaries about the science of climate change. The consequences of changes in climate for society and the environment are referred to as the Impacts of Climate Change. These impacts can occur as a result of extreme fluctuations in the climate, such as the extreme heat and dry conditions of the summer of 2003 that led to widespread fires in Europe and western North America. Ongoing global warming is also contributing to the disruption of Arctic ecosystems as sea ice becomes thinner and less extensive. The compilation of materials available through this website documents that impacts are already occurring as a result of past changes in the climate and provide the best estimates of potential impacts resulting from the changes in climate available in leading scientific assessments. Because impacts vary from place-to-place, and because the vulnerability to these potential impacts depends on variations in the capabilities to adapt to and prepare for the changes, the most informative impact studies have focused on expectations for particular regions. For this reason, the materials presented here are organized by region, initially at the continental scale, and then more finely at scales of nations, subregions, and, in some cases, provinces and states. The many interconnections across regions and continents, for example, for agriculture and human health, require that potential impacts be evaluated over wide areas. For this reason, studies and reports are also grouped together for particular sectors. There are an increasing number of studies and analyses of potential impacts and possibilities for adapting to them. The most authoritative evaluations of climate change impacts are the national and international assessments that have been and are being carried out, for they bring together teams of experts that critically review and synthesize the findings of many individual investigators, and then put the resulting integrations of findings through extensive peer-review. For this reason, such assessment reports are featured in our compilation. To the extent practical, we also include references to other leading papers and resources, especially those studies that have been peer-reviewed and published or formed the basis for peer-reviewed assessments. You may notice that many resources appear multiple times in different locations. This is because many resources fit in more than one category and we hope that by listing a resource in all applicable locations, users will be more likely to find the resources they are looking for. This website is a work in progress. We greatly appreciate suggestions of ways to improve the site as well as resources and citations that should be added to it. Please email your suggestions (or reports of broken links) to us at info@climate.org. ...... The work on Impacts of Climate Change has largely been done by three individuals: the project leader, Julian Dautremont-Smith, a recent graduate of Lewis and Clark College who is currently serving as a Truman Scholar and and will be starting a Fulbright fellowship in September; Nicole Okuniek, a German graduate student who did research on German language sites and German funded studies; and Sarah Ferriter, a student at University of Southern Maine, who researched climate change impact studies in parts of the former Soviet Union and air

quality information worldwide. Sarah's work built on earlier air quality research done by Katherine Hoff of Haverford College, Edmund Brown of Sterling College.and Erica Duque of Dartmouth College. The climate change impacts work built on previous work by Michael Ring of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Science Advisor for the climate change impacts work has been Dr. Michael MacCracken, an atmospheric scientist who recently retired from the University of California. Dr. MacCracken will head a scientific steering committee for the impacts of climate change effort. General guidance for the climate change impacts and air quality portions of climate.org has been provided by John Topping, Climate Institute President and Staff Director of US EPA's Office of Air and Radiation before he founded the Climate Institute in 1986.

CLIMATE LINKS - IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Regions Africa | Asia | Australasia | Europe | Latin America | North America | Polar Regions | Small Island States Sectors Agriculture & Food Security | Human Health | Hydrologic Resources & Extreme Weather | Coastal Resources | Security | Species, Diversity, and Ecosystems

General Studies Regional Studies Spread of Disease Thermal Stress

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SPREAD OF DISEASE

General
Epstein, Paul R. 2002. "Climate Change and Infectious Disease: Stormy Weather Ahead?" Epidemiology, Vol. 13, No. 4, July, pp. 373-5. PDF National Research Council. 2001. Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. TEXT Rose, Joan B., Anwar Huq, and Erin K. Lipp. 2001. Health, Climate and Infectious Disease: A Global Perspective. American Academy of Microbiology: Washington, D.C. [ABSTRACT] Patz, Jonathan A., and Steven W. Lindsay. 1999. "New challenges, new tools: the impact of climate change on infectious diseases," Current Opinion in Microbiology, Vol. 2, No. 4, August, pp. 445-451. [ABSTRACT] Colwell, Rita R., and Jonathan A. Patz. 1998. Climate, Infectious Disease and Health: An Interdisciplinary Perspective. American Academy of Microbiology: Washington, D.C. PDF Patz, J. A., P. R. Epstein, T. A. Burke and J. M. Balbus. 1996. "Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases," Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 275, No. 3, January 17, pp. 217-223. [ABSTRACT]

Food-borne diseases
Rose, Joan B., Paul R. Epstein, Erin K. Lipp, Benjamin H. Sherman, Susan M. Bernard, and Jonathan A. Patz. 2001. "Climate Variability and Change in the United States: Potential Impacts on Water- and Foodborne

Diseases Caused by Microbiologic Agents," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 109, Suppl. 2, May, pp. 211-221. [ ABSTRACT ]

Food Poisoning
Bentham G, Langford IH. Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales. International Journal of Biometeorology 1995; 39:81-86 Bentham, G. C., and I. H. Langford. 1995. "Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales," International Journal Biometeorology, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 81-86. [ABSTRACT]

Vector-borne diseases
Patz, Jonathan A. and William K. Reisen. 2001. "Immunology, climate change and vector-borne diseases," Trends in Immunology, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 171-172. [ABSTRACT] Kovats, R. S., D. H. Campbell-Lendrum, A. J. McMichael, A. Woodward, J. St H. Cox. 2001. "Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?," Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences, Vol. 356, No. 1411, July 29, pp. 1057-68. [ABSTRACT] Gubler, Duane J., Paul Reiter, Kristie L. Ebi, Wendy Yap, Roger Nasci, and Jonathan A. Patz. 2001. "Climate Variability and Change in the United States: Potential Impacts on Vector- and Rodent-Borne Diseases," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 109, Suppl. 2, May, pp. 223-233. [ABSTRACT] or PDF Reiter, Paul. 2001. "Climate Change and Mosquito-Borne Disease," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 109, Suppl. 1, March, pp. 141-161. [ABSTRACT] Tol, Richard S.J. and Hadi Dowlatabadi. 2001. "Vector-borne diseases, development & climate change," Integrated Assessment, Vol. 2, pp. 173-181. PDF Githeko, Andrew K., Steve W. Lindsay, Ulisses E. Confalonieri, and Jonathan A. Patz. 2000. "Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis," Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol. 78, No. 9, pp. 1136 -1147. PDF Sutherst, R.W., J.S.I. Ingram and H. Scherm. 1998. "Global Change and Vector-borne Diseases," Parasitology Today, Vol. 14, No. 8, pp. 297-299. [ABSTRACT] Epstein, Paul R., Henry F. Diaz, Scott Elias, Georg Grabherr, Nicholas E. Graham, Willem J. M. Martens, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, and Joel Susskind. 1998. "Biological and Physical Signs of Climate Change: Focus on Mosquito-borne Diseases," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 79, No. 3, March, pp. 40917. PDF Burnett, H. Sterling and Merrill Matthews Jr. 1997. Sick Argument: Global Warming and the Spread of Tropical Diseases. National Center for Policy Analysis: Washington, D.C. TEXT Martens, Willem J.M., Theo H. Jetten, J. Rotmans and L. W. Niessen. 1995. "Climate change and vector-borne diseases: A global modeling perspective," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 5, No. 3, June, pp. 195-209. [ABSTRACT] Rogers, David J., and Michael J Packer. 1993. "Vector-borne diseases, models, and global change," The Lancet, Vol. 342, No. 8882, November 20, pp. 1282-1284. Nicholls, Neville. 1993. "El Nino-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne disease," The Lancet, Vol. 342, No. 8882, November 20, pp. 1284-1285.

Malaria
Patz, J.A., M. Hulme, C. Rosenzweig, T.D. Mitchell, R.A. Goldberg, A.K. Githeko, S. Lele, A.J. McMichael, and D. Le Sueur. 2002. "Regional warming and malaria resurgence," Nature, Vol. 420, pp. 627-628. [ABSTRACT] Rogers, D. J., and S. E. Randolph. 2000. "The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world," Science, Vol. 289, No. 5485, September 8, pp. 1763-6. [ABSTRACT]

Reiter, Paul. 2000. "From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age," Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jan/Feb. TEXT Martens, P., R. Sari Kovats, S. Nijhof, P. de Vries, M. T. J. Livermore, D. J. Bradley, J. Cox and Anthony J. McMichael. 1999. "Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, Suppl. 1, October, pp. S89-S107. [ABSTRACT] Sutherst, R. W. 1998. "Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic approaches to impact assessments," International Journal for Parasitology, Vol. 28, No. 6, 1 June, pp. 935-945. [ABSTRACT] Walker, John. 1998. "Malaria in a changing world: an Australian perspective," International Journal for Parasitology, Vol. 28, No. 6, 1 June, pp. 947-953. [ABSTRACT] Russell, Richard C. 1998. "Mosquito-borne arboviruses in Australia: the current scene and implications of climate change for human health," International Journal for Parasitology, Vol. 28, No. 6, 1 June, pp. 955-969. [ABSTRACT] Malakooti, M. A., K. Biomndo, and G. D. Shanks. 1998. "Reemergence of Epidemic Malaria in the Highlands of Western Kenya," Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 4, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1998; TEXT Martens, Willem J.M., Theo H. Jetten and D. A. Focks. 1997. "Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming," Climatic Change, Vol. 35, pp. 145-56. [ABSTRACT] Lindsay, S. W., and M. H. Birley. 1996. "Climate change and malaria transmission," Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Vol. 90, No. 6, Dec., pp. 573-88. [ABSTRACT] Bryan, Joan H., Desmond H. Foley and Robert W. Sutherst. 1996. "Malaria transmission and climate change in Australia," Medical Journal of Australia, Vol. 164, March 18, pp. 345-347. TEXT Martens, Willem J.M., Louis W. Niessen, Jan Rotmans, Theo H. Jetten, and Anthony J. McMichael. 1995. "Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 103, No. 5, May, pp. 458-64. [ABSTRACT] Martin, Phillippe H. and Myriam G. Lefebvre. 1995. "Malaria and climate: Sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate," Ambio, Vol.24, No. 4, June, pp. 200-7. Matsuoka, Yuzuru, and Keiko Kai. 1994. "An estimation of climatic change effects on malaria," Journal of Global Environment Engineering, Vol. 1, p. 1-15. [ABSTRACT] Burgos, J. J., S. I. Curto de Casas, R. U. Carcavallo, I. Galndez Girn. 1994. "Global climate change influence in the distribution of some pathogenic complexes (malaria and Chagas disease) in Argentina," Entomologia y Vectores, Vol. 1, pp. 69-78. Loevinsohn, Michael E. 1994. "Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda," The Lancet, Vol. 343, No. 8899, March 19, pp. 714-18.

Dengue
Hales, Simon, Neil de Wet, John Maindonald, and Alistair Woodward. 2002. "Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model," The Lancet, Vol. 360, September 14, pp. 830-834. PDF Patz, Jonathan A., Willem J.M. Martens, Dana A. Focks, and Theo H. Jetten. 1998. "Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 106, No. 3, March, pp. 147-153. [ABSTRACT] Martens, Willem J.M., Theo H. Jetten and D. A. Focks. 1997. "Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming," Climatic Change, Vol. 35, pp. 145-56. [ABSTRACT] Jetten, T. H., and D. A. Focks. 1997. "Changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming scenarios," American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 57, No. 3, pp. 285-297.

Tick-borne diseases
Estrada-Pea, Agustn. 2002. "Increasing Habitat Suitability in the United States for the Tick that Transmits Lyme Disease: A Remote Sensing Approach," Environmental Health Perspectives. Vol. 110, No. 7, July, pp. 635-640. [ABSTRACT] Lindgren, Elisabet, and Rolf Gustafson. 2001. "Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change," The Lancet, Vol. 358, No. 9275, 07 July, p. 16-18.[ABSTRACT] Lindgren, Elisabet, Lars Tlleklint, and Thomas Polfeldt. 2000. "Impact of Climatic Change on the Northern Latitude Limit and Population Density of the Disease-Transmitting European Tick Ixodes ricinus," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 108, No. 2, February, pp. 119-123. [ABSTRACT] Lindgren, Elisabet. 1998. "Climate and tickborne encephalitis," Conservation Ecology, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 57. TEXT

Chagas Disease
Carcavallo, Rodolfo U. 1999. "Climatic Factors Related to Chagas Disease Transmission," Memrias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 94, Suppl. I, pp. 367-369. TEXT Carcavallo, Rodolfo U., Cleber Galvo, Dayse da Silva Rocha, Jos Jurberg and Susana I. Curto de Casas. 1998. "Predicted effects of warming on Chagas' Disease vectors and epidemiology," Entomologa y Vectores, Vol. 5, No. 3, Junho, p. 137. Burgos, J. J., S. I. Curto de Casas, R. U. Carcavallo, I. Galndez Girn. 1994. "Global climate change influence in the distribution of some pathogenic complexes (malaria and Chagas disease) in Argentina," Entomologia y Vectores, Vol. 1, pp. 69-78.

Schistosomiasis
Martens, Willem J.M., Theo H. Jetten and D. A. Focks. 1997. "Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming," Climatic Change, Vol. 35, pp. 145-56. [ABSTRACT]

Leishmaniasis
Cross, Eleanor R. and Kenneth C. Hyams. 1996. "The Potential Effect of Global Warming on the Geographic and Seasonal Distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 104, No. 7, July, pp. 724-727. [ABSTRACT]

Water-borne diseases
Casman, Elizabeth, Baruch Fischhoff, Mitchell Small, et al. 2001. "Climate Change and Cryptosporidiosis: A Qualitative Analysis," Climatic Change, Vol. 50, No. 1-2, July, pp. 219-249. [ABSTRACT] Rose, Joan B., Paul R. Epstein, Erin K. Lipp, Benjamin H. Sherman, Susan M. Bernard, and Jonathan A. Patz. 2001. "Climate Variability and Change in the United States: Potential Impacts on Water- and Foodborne Diseases Caused by Microbiologic Agents," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 109, Suppl. 2, May, pp. 211-221. [ABSTRACT] TEXT Curriero, Frank C. Jonathan A. Patz, Joan B. Rose, and Subhash Lele. 2001. "The Association Between Extreme Precipitation and Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994," American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 91, No. 8, August, pp. 1194-1199. Stanwell-Smith, R. 2001. "Water-borne diseases and climate change," in: Department of Health. 2001. Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK. TEXT

Cholera
Rod, Xavier, Mercedes Pascual, George Fuchs, and A. S. G. Faruque. 2002. "ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, No. 20, October 1, pp. 12901-12906. TEXT or PDF Patz, Jonathan A. 2002. "A human disease indicator for the effects of recent global climate change," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, No. 20, October 1, pp. 12506-08. TEXT or PDF Lipp, Erin K., Anwar Huq, and Rita R. Colwell. 2002. "Effects of Global Climate on Infectious Disease: the Cholera Model," Clinical Microbiology Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 4, October, pp. 757-770. [ABSTRACT] or TEXT Colwell, R.R. 1996. "Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm," Science, Vol. 274, No. 5295, Dec 20, pp. 2025-31. [ABSTRACT]

What Could Climate Change Mean For Malaria?

By Onome Akpogheneta | July 8th 2010 11:07 AM | Print | E-mail | Track Comments

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There are many predictions suggesting that climate change could create new permissive habitats for disease transmitting arthropod vectors. As a result of climate change, and associated global warming,

permissive environments which provide conditions for enhanced breeding and extended life-spans of insects are predicted. With these environmental changes greater vector-borne disease spread and increases in disease transmission rates are projected in many parts of the world. Insect vectors can transmit viral, bacterial, protozoal and helminth organisms to humans and result in diseases which cause significant morbidity and mortality. Vector-borne diseases including trypanomiasis, which is transmitted by the tsetse fly, leishmaniasis transmitted by the sandfly, Lyme disease transmitted by the deer tick and dengue fever, West Nile virus, yellow fever and malaria all transmitted by mosquitoes could thus pose increased health risks to humans. In particular, malaria is the most prevalent vector-borne disease globally. It is a disease which is still endemic in 100 countries, meaning that an estimated 3 billion people, or half of the global population are at direct risk of malaria-related illness and death. Up to 1 million deaths are attributable to malaria annually. The bite of Plasmodium-infected female Anopheles mosquitoes and transmission of the protozoan parasites is the cause. Most deaths result from Plasmodium falciparum infections and occur in children under 5 years of age in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, each year up to 500 million malaria infections cause illness and disease for children and adults in malaria-endemic countries. There are a number of mathematical models that describe future associations between specific climate change variables and mosquito habitats, breeding conditions and life-span. Many foresee more permissive environments for mosquitoes and warn

of increased malaria transmission and disease risk with global warming. However, a model recently published in the Journal Nature by Gething et al. has provided evidence that climate change will have a small impact on malaria epidemics.
Historically, malaria has been transmitted in both non-tropical and tropical regions. Up until the mid 20th century, it was endemic in parts of the northern hemisphere in Europe, as far north as Finland, and in North America, as far as Canada. The rates of malaria-related illness and death were not dissimilar to those in some malaria-endemic Sub-Saharan Africa countries today. In fact,Anopheles vectors which are capable of malaria transmission still have hospitable habitats in many developed countries today. In England, for example, there are currently

six Anopheles species able to transmit malaria. However, due to ecological changes, improvements in human living conditions, and greater access to medical care, malaria has been eradicated from England early in the 20th century. As described in an article describing
the risk of malaria today, "one is much more likely to be struck by lightning than to get malaria from an English mosquito".

Similarly, in the USA, malaria eradication was associated with improved living conditions and access to health care. In the US, however, intensive and determined use of the synthetic insecticide DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) to eliminate mosquito vectors was crucial. Although the risk of malaria is now minimal, annual insecticide treatments continue as a public health measure in the US. The goal of these campaigns is to control vectors which transmit West Nile virus, Lyme disease, and dengue virus, amongst others, rather than malaria. In former Soviet block countries it was primarily the advent of DDT that caused rapid reductions in malaria transmission in the mid 20th century.

Within highly malaria-endemic areas today, disease transmission often coincides with the seasonal rains. So, while rainfall, humidity and temperature certainly have important impacts upon malaria, poverty, fragile health and inadequate malaria control systems contribute significantly to malaria risk. Using climate change factors alone will not tell the complex story of malaria transmission, disease and death.

Two types of disease model, 'statistical' and 'process-driven', are commonly used to estimate climate change effects upon vector distributions and provide predictions about the future risk of disease transmission. Steve Lindsay, Professor of Public Health Entomology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine considers that "both models work quite nicely" but the process-driven model is the "Rolls Royce" version. The statistical model is largely able to capture the existing climate envelope for vectors by considering pertinent environmental factors: temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Unlike the statistical model, the process driven model mainly considers temperature as the primary parameter but also takes into account the biology of the vector. It remains an important goal for modelers to also consider human habitats and environmental conditions, amongst other parameters, in order to provide comprehensive risk models for malaria in association with climate change. But, it's also clear that with increased model complexity could also come more uncertainty in making predictions. Serious concerns remain, however, that models which use specific climate changes variables, primarily temperature, humidity and rainfall, in isolation of other factors result in misleading interpretations of future malaria distribution and impact risks.

Some models predict that increased malaria transmission over a widely dispersed area will accompany changes in specific climate related parameters, posing malaria risks to countries which are currently malaria free. Other models warn of changes in patterns of malaria transmission in highly localized regions for example predicting increased malaria transmission in heavily malaria burdened regions. Further models forecast malaria becoming problematic in high elevation, or semi-arid areas which are currently malaria-free but surrounded by malaria-endemic regions. The models provide "insight" affirms Lindsay but it also remains "important not to over-interpret conclusions". For Lindsay, statistical models provide "scenarios" and a "foundation for understanding vector borne diseases [and disease] transmission". In order to inform what these first step analyses describe it is important, says Lindsay, to "go to the field" and collect real-life data. At the moment, considers Lindsay "it's almost a routine tool to model distribution of animals by determining their climate envelope".

Paul Reiter, Professor of Medical Entomology at The Pasteur Institute provides a harsher commentary on many predicted associations made between climate change and malaria risk. He considers that many models foresee situations which are analogous to "pour(ing) more water into a glass that is already full". Reiter argues that many publications use models to "sidestep"discussion about the ecology and behavior of humans and the ecology and behavior of vectors. Commenting that mention of individual host or host population immunity is also rare, Reiter adds"it is illogical to suggest that increased temperatures will result in an increased incidence of infections." However, he does agree that "changes in rainfall patterns could alter stability and distribution." Importantly, for Reiter, is an

awareness that the "principal determinants [of malaria transmission] are linked to ecological and societal change, politics and economics."

Remarking upon climate change as a "minor" factor to determine future malaria risk, Lindsay observes that with global warming "malaria risk might increase but we're controlling it". Lindsay's comment chimes with the sustained reductions which have been described for malaria morbidity and mortality rates over recent years. Associated renewed efforts and enthusiasm for malaria elimination programs also emphasize the success of malaria control. As such, malaria eradication enthusiasts can identify strong evidence to support the goal of malaria eradication within the next 30 years or so. The 2010 Roll Back Malaria and UNICEF World Malaria Day report
estimates that between 2000 and 2010, 1 million lives were saved as a direct impact of the increased financial support for malaria interventions and research. Key among the successful interventions is the use of insecticide treated nets and prompt, effective treatment for diagnoses of malaria with parasites. Over-emphasis on the global impact climate change in relation to malaria misses the mark on the immediate need to address persistent socioeconomic and political factors which drive malaria transmission. Malaria control measures are working and furthermore, there is compelling evidence that reducing the burden of malaria will also have a real impact on reducing other 'unrelated' causes of childhood mortality.

Discussing the importance of climate on disease is not new; malaria even takes its name from an association of mosquitoes with humid, swampy climates which caused the disease of 'bad air'. However, while speculation

on the importance of climate for malaria and other vector-borne diseases continues, it is crucial to support anti-disease measures with robust evidence and campaigns which go beyond speculated scenarios. It's important not to take the climate change ride with the wrong ticket. Loosing focus from what works will mean loss of lives, and could result in efforts to combat climate change and vector borne diseases both being discredited.

Economic development together with sustained, and expanded, malaria control and treatment measures are important current and future indicators of malaria risk for endemic countries. Although established as important primary determinants of environmental factors, socio-economic factors are not built into the current mathematical models of climate change; indeed, the question remains about whether such complex models would have real value. In terms of climate change and vector-borne disease, comments Lindsay "more fundamental environmental changes are occurring; urbanization, irrigation, deforestation... By comparison, climate change is subtle as a long term process".

Sources

Climate change and the global malaria

recession,http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v465/n7296/full/natur

e09098.html, Gething (2010):Nature, 465 (342-354) Interview with Steve Lindsay, LSHTM April 2010 Global warming and malaria; knowing the horse before hitching the
cart,http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2604878/pdf/1475-

2875-7-S1-S3.pdf, Reiter (2008); Malaria Journal, 7(Suppl 1):S3

 Shrinking the malaria map: A guide on malaria elimination for policy

makers,http://www.malariaeliminationgroup.org/sites/default/files/fileu

ploads/AGuideonMalariaEliminationforPolicyMakers.pdf Roll Back Malaria&UNICEF World Malaria Day

Report: Africa Update,http://www.unicef.org/media/files/rbm-reportII-

en.pdf Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the UK using 2 markedly
different modeling approaches, http://ukpmc.ac.uk/articlerender.cgi?accid=PMC2845590 ,Lin dsay et al. (2010); Malaria Journal, 9: 70

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