Project NPV Sensitivity Analysis
Project NPV Sensitivity Analysis
Project NPV Sensitivity Analysis
Discounting
Discount Rate = Cost of Capital 13.22% 13.98% 14.74%
Cumulative Discount Factor 13.22% 29.05% 48.07%
Data Table: Sensitivity of the Project NPV to Unit Sales and the Real Cost of Capital
Input Values for Unit Sales Scale Factor
Output Formula: Proj NPV $3,468.53 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%
9.00%
Input Values for Date 0 Real Cost of Capital 11.00%
13.00%
15.00%
17.00%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
110.00% 120.00%
PROJECT NPV Working Capital
(In Thouands of $) 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Key Assumptions
Unit Sales 2000 4000 5600
Inflation Rate 2.00% 2.50% 3.00%
Real Cost of Capital 11.00% 11.20% 11.40%
Tax Rate 35.00% 35.00% 35.00%
Discounting
Discount Rate = Cost of Capital 13.22% 13.98% 14.74%
Cumulative Discount Factor 13.22% 29.05% 48.07%
Discounting
Discount Rate = Cost of Capital 13.22% 13.98% 14.74%
Cumulative Discount Factor 13.22% 29.05% 48.07%
Discounting
Discount Rate = Cost of Capital 13.22% 13.98% 14.74%
Cumulative Discount Factor 13.22% 29.05% 48.07%
$1,400.00
$7,913.05 $9,239.60 $3,048.99 $1,056.62
$4,626.63 $4,646.21 $1,316.29 $390.92
THE YIELD CURVE - Using it to Determine Forward Rate
Maturity Time to Yield to Forward
Inputs Date Maturity Maturity Rates
Today 07/07/09
One month Treasury Bill 08/07/09 0.09 3.96% 3.96%
Three month Treasury Bill 10/04/09 0.24 5.19% 5.86%
Six month Treasury Bill 01/03/10 0.49 5.43% 5.67%
One year Treasury Bill 07/07/10 1.00 5.78% 6.12%
Two Year Investment Bond 07/07/11 2.00 5.94% 6.10%
Three Year Investment Bond 07/06/12 3.00 5.99% 6.10%
Four Year Investmetn Bond 07/06/13 4.00 6.05% 6.22%
Five Year Investment Bond 07/06/14 5.00 6.26% 7.10%
Ten Year Investment Bond 07/06/19 10.00 6.56% 6.86%
Fifteen Year Investment Bond 07/06/24 15.00 6.59% 6.65%
Twenty Year Investment Bond 07/07/29 20.00 6.54% 6.39%
Twenty Five Year Investment Bond 07/05/34 24.99 6.34% 5.54%
Thrity Year Investment Bond 07/07/39 30.00 6.08% 4.79%
6.50%
6.00%
5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
Column D
3.50%
Column E
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
0.09 0.24 0.49 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 24.99 30.00
Bond Inputs
Rate Convention: 1=EAR, 0=APR 1 Effective Annual Rate
Annual Coupon Rate (CR) 12.00%
Number of Payments / Year (NOP) 1
Number of Periods to Maturity (N) 10
Face Value (M) $1,000.00
Outputs
Coupon Payment (INT) $120.00
Calculate the Price and Yield to Maturity of a Coupon Bond using the Cash Flows
Period 0 1 2 3
Time (Years) 0 1 2 3
Cash Flows $120.00 $120.00 $120.00
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) 12.50% 12.95% 13.00%
Discount Rate / Period 12.50% 12.95% 13.00%
Present Value of Cash Flow $106.67 $94.06 $83.17
Coupon Bond Price $867.52
Coupon Bond Discount Rate / Period 14.60%
Coupon Bond Yield to Maturity 14.60%
Treasury Coupon Yield Curve
16.25%
16.00%
15.75%
Yield to Maturity (Annual)
15.50%
15.25%
15.00%
14.75%
14.50%
14.25%
14.00%
13.75%
13.50%
13.25%
13.00%
12.75%
12.50%
12.25%
- 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00 12.50 15.00 17.50 20.00 22.50 25.00 27.50 30.00
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
$120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $1,120.00
13.25% 13.50% 13.88% 14.00% 14.34% 14.86% 15.36%
13.25% 13.50% 13.88% 14.00% 14.34% 14.86% 15.36%
$72.95 $63.71 $55.02 $47.96 $41.09 $34.48 $268.43
THE YIELD CURVE - Obtaining it from Bond Listings
Maturity Time to Yield to
Inputs Date Maturity Maturity
Today 07/07/09
One month Treasury Bill 08/07/09 0.09 3.96%
Three month Treasury Bill 10/04/09 0.24 5.19%
Six month Treasury Bill 01/03/10 0.49 5.43%
One year Treasury Bill 07/07/10 1.00 5.78%
Two Year Investment Bond 07/07/11 2.00 5.94%
Three Year Investment Bond 07/06/12 3.00 5.99%
Four Year Investmetn Bond 07/06/13 4.00 6.05%
Five Year Investment Bond 07/06/14 5.00 6.26%
Ten Year Investment Bond 07/06/19 10.00 6.56%
Fifteen Year Investment Bond 07/06/24 15.00 6.59%
Twenty Year Investment Bond 07/07/29 20.00 6.54%
Twenty Five Year Investment Bond 07/05/34 24.99 6.34%
Thrity Year Investment Bond 07/07/39 30.00 6.08%
6.00%
5.75%
5.50%
5.25%
5.00%
4.75%
4.50%
4.25%
4.00%
3.75%
- 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00 12.50 15.00 17.50 20.00 22.50
Outputs
Real Discount Rate (Real K) 9.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00%
Intrinsic Value / Share $176.26 $318.27 $226.97 $176.26
$250.00
$225.00
$200.00
$175.00
$150.00
$125.00
$100.00
7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00%
Real Discount Rate
Stage : 2
Infinite
Stage 1 : Explicit Forecast Horizon
Horizon (ROI > k) (ROI = k)
2 3 4 5 6
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
17.00% 15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 9.00%
20.51% 18.45% 16.39% 14.33% 12.27%
8.50% 7.50% 6.50% 5.50% 4.50%
11.76% 10.73% 9.69% 8.66% 7.64%
$8.37 $9.27 $10.17 $11.05 $11.89
$256.51
$8.37 $9.27 $10.17 $267.56
$6.64 $6.55 $6.40 $150.00
STOCK VALUATION - TWO STAGE
Inputs
Inflation Rate 3.00%
Real Discount Rate (Real k) 9.00%
Earning Retention Rate 50.00%
Outputs
Nominal Discount Rate (k) 12.27%
Stage 1
Historical Data Ho
Period -2 -1 0 1
Inflation Rate 2.80% 2.80% 3.00%
Reat Return on Investment (Real ROI) 22.30% 20.70% 19.00%
Nominal Return on Investment 25.70% 24.40% 22.57%
Real Growth Rate in Dividend (Real g) 11.20% 10.40% 9.50%
Nominal Growth Rate in Dividend (g) 14.50% 13.70% 12.79%
Nominal Dividend / Share $5.10 $5.84 $6.64 $7.49
Continuation Value / Share
Sum of Future Div. & Con. Value / Shr $7.49
PV of Future Div. & Cont. Value / Shr $6.67
Intrinsic Value/Share $176.26
AGE
Stage : 2
Infinite
Stage 1 : Explicit Forecast Horizon
Horizon (ROI > k) (ROI = k)
2 3 4 5 6
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
17.00% 15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 9.00%
20.51% 18.45% 16.39% 14.33% 12.27%
8.50% 7.50% 6.50% 5.50% 4.50%
11.76% 10.73% 9.69% 8.66% 7.64%
$8.37 $9.27 $10.17 $11.05 $11.89
$256.51
$8.37 $9.27 $10.17 $267.56
$6.64 $6.55 $6.40 $150.00
BOND VALUATION - System of Five bond Variables
Annual Percentage Rate
Inputs
Rate Convetion (1= EAR, 0=APR) 0 EAR = Effective Annual Rate Convention & APR = Annual Perce
Annual Coupon Rate (CR) 5.00%
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) (Kd) 9.00%
Number of Payment / Year (NOP) 2.00
Numer of Periods to Maturity (N) 8
Face Value (M) $1,000.00
Discount Rate / Period (DR) 4.50% =IF($C$6=1,((1+Kd)^(1/NOP))-1,Kd/NOP)
Coupon Payment (INT) $25.00
Bond Price (VB) $868.08 =-PV(DR,N,INT,M)
NPER(DR,INT,-VB,M)
FV(DR,N,INT,-VB)
VB*((1+DR)^N)-INT*(((1+DR)^N)-1)/DR
RATE(N,INT,-VB,M)
PMT(DR,N,-VB,M)
(VB-M/((1+DR)^N))/((1-((1+DR)^(-N)))/DR)
PV(DR,N,INT,M)
INT*(1-((1+DR)^(-N)))/DR+M/((1+DR)^N)
BOND VALUATION - BY YIELD TO MATURITY
Effective Annual Rate
Inputs
Rate Convetion (1= EAR, 0=APR) 1 EAR = Effective Annual Rate Convention & APR = Annual Perce
Annual Coupon Rate (CR) 5.00%
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) (Kd) 9.00%
Number of Payment / Year (NOP) 2.00
Numer of Periods to Maturity (N) 12
Face Value (M) $1,000.00
Output
Discount Rate / Period (DR) 4.40% =IF($C$6=1,((1+Kd)^(1/NOP))-1,Kd/NOP)
Coupon Payment (INT) $25.00
Chart Outputs
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) 1% 2% 3% 4%
Discount Rate / Period 0.50% 1.00% 1.49% 1.98%
Bond Price $1,232.54 $1,169.44 $1,110.36 $1,055.02
$1,250.00
$1,200.00
$1,150.00
$1,100.00
$1,050.00
$1,000.00
$950.00 Bond Price
$900.00
$850.00
$800.00
$750.00
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10 11
% %
MATURITY
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%
2.47% 2.96% 3.44% 3.92% 4.40% 4.88% 5.36%
$1,003.13 $954.46 $908.77 $865.85 $825.50 $787.55 $751.83
BOND VALUATION - BY YIELD TO MATURITY
Annual Percentage Rate
Inputs
Rate Convetion (1= EAR, 0=APR) 0 EAR = Effective Annual Rate Convention & APR = Annual Perce
Annual Coupon Rate (CR) 5.00%
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) (Kd) 9.00%
Number of Payment / Year (NOP) 2.00
Numer of Periods to Maturity (N) 12
Face Value (M) $1,000.00
Output
Discount Rate / Period (DR) 4.50% =IF($C$6=1,((1+Kd)^(1/NOP))-1,Kd/NOP)
Coupon Payment (INT) $25.00
Chart Outputs
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) 1% 2% 3% 4%
Discount Rate / Period 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00%
Bond Price $1,232.38 $1,168.83 $1,109.08 $1,052.88
$1,250.00
$1,200.00
$1,150.00
$1,100.00
$1,050.00
$1,000.00
$950.00 Bond Price
$900.00
$850.00
$800.00
$750.00
$700.00
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10 11
% %
MATURITY
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%
2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50%
$1,000.00 $950.23 $903.37 $859.22 $817.63 $778.42 $741.44
BOND VALUATION - BASIC
Annual Percentage Rate
Inputs
Rate Convetion (1= EAR, 0=APR) 0 EAR = Effective Annual Rate Convention & APR = Annual Perce
Annual Coupon Rate (CR) 5.00%
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) (Kd) 9.00%
Number of Payment / Year (NOP) 2.00
Numer of Periods to Maturity (N) 12
Face Value (M) $1,000.00
Output
Discount Rate / Period (DR) 4.50% =IF($C$6=1,((1+Kd)^(1/NOP))-1,Kd/NOP)
Coupon Payment (INT) $25.00
Period 0 1 2 3
Time (Years) 0 0.5 1 1.5
Cash Flows $25.00 $25.00 $25.00
Present Value of Cash Flow $23.92 $22.89 $21.91
Bond Price $817.63 =sum(d19:o19)
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
$25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00
$20.96 $20.06 $19.20 $18.37 $17.58 $16.82 $16.10
11 12
5.5 6
$25.00 $1,025.00
$15.40 $604.41
LOAN AMORTIZATION - Sensitivity Analysis
Inputs
Present Value $300,000.00
Interest Rate / year 8%
Number of Years 30
Output
Year 1 2 3 4
Beginning Principal Balance $300,000.00 $297,351.77 $294,491.68 $291,402.79
Payment $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
Interest Component $24,000.00 $23,788.14 $23,559.33 $23,312.22
Principal Component $2,648.23 $2,860.09 $3,088.90 $3,336.01
Data Table : Sensitivity of the Interest Component to the Interest Rate / Year
Input Values for
Interest Rate / Year
6.00% $18,000.00 $16,920.00 $16,984.80 $16,980.91
7.00% $21,000.00 $19,530.00 $19,632.90 $19,625.70
8.00% $24,000.00 $22,080.00 $22,233.60 $22,221.31
9.00% $27,000.00 $24,570.00 $24,788.70 $24,769.02
10.00% $30,000.00 $27,000.00 $27,300.00 $27,270.00
Data Table : Sensitivity of the Principal Component to the Interest Rate / Year
Input Values for
Interest Rate / Year
6.00% $1,260.00 $17,924.40 $16,924.54 $16,984.53
7.00% $1,470.00 $20,897.10 $19,537.20 $19,632.40
8.00% $1,680.00 $23,865.60 $22,090.75 $22,232.74
9.00% $1,890.00 $26,829.90 $24,585.31 $24,787.32
10.00% $2,100.00 $29,790.00 $27,021.00 $27,297.90
ty Analysis
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
$288,066.78 $284,463.89 $280,572.77 $276,370.36 $271,831.76 $266,930.07 $261,636.25
$26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
$23,045.34 $22,757.11 $22,445.82 $22,109.63 $21,746.54 $21,354.41 $20,930.90
$3,602.89 $3,891.12 $4,202.41 $4,538.60 $4,901.69 $5,293.82 $5,717.33
Output
Year 1 2 3 4
Beginning Principal Balance $300,000.00 $297,351.77 $294,491.68 $291,402.79
Payment $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
Interest Component $24,000.00 $23,788.14 $23,559.33 $23,312.22
Principal Component $2,648.23 $2,860.09 $3,088.90 $3,336.01
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Co Co Co Co Co Co C C Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co C
lu lu lu lu lu lu olu olu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu
mn mn mn mn mn mn mn I mn J mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn m
Years
ASIC
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
$288,066.78 $284,463.89 $280,572.77 $276,370.36 $271,831.76 $266,930.07 $261,636.25
$26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
$23,045.34 $22,757.11 $22,445.82 $22,109.63 $21,746.54 $21,354.41 $20,930.90
$3,602.89 $3,891.12 $4,202.41 $4,538.60 $4,901.69 $5,293.82 $5,717.33
rtization - Basic
mn
Column
O Column
P Column
Q Column
R Column
S Column
T Column
U Column
V Column
WColumn
X Column
YColumn
ZColumn
AA
Column
AB
Column
AC
Column
AD
Column
AE AF
mn O
Column P
Column Q R
Column
Column S
Column T
Column U
Column V
Column W
Column X
Column Y
Column Z
Column AA
Column AB
Column AC
Column AD
Column AE
Column AF
o Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co C Co Co
lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu lu olu lu lu
n mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn
Years
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
$255,918.92 $249,744.20 $243,075.51 $235,873.32 $228,094.96 $219,694.32 $210,621.64
$26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
$20,473.51 $19,979.54 $19,446.04 $18,869.87 $18,247.60 $17,575.55 $16,849.73
$6,174.72 $6,668.69 $7,202.19 $7,778.36 $8,400.63 $9,072.68 $9,798.50
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
$200,823.14 $190,240.76 $178,811.79 $166,468.51 $153,137.76 $138,740.55 $123,191.56
$26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
$16,065.85 $15,219.26 $14,304.94 $13,317.48 $12,251.02 $11,099.24 $9,855.32
$10,582.38 $11,428.97 $12,343.29 $13,330.75 $14,397.21 $15,548.99 $16,792.91
26 27 28 29 30
$106,398.66 $88,262.32 $68,675.07 $47,520.85 $24,674.29
$26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23 $26,648.23
$8,511.89 $7,060.99 $5,494.01 $3,801.67 $1,973.94
$18,136.34 $19,587.24 $21,154.22 $22,846.56 $24,674.29
REAL AND INFLATION - GENERAL DISCOUNT RATE
(In Thousands of $)
Inputs
Preiod 0 1 2 3 4
Current Investments 100
Future Value of each Cash Flow 21.00 34.00 40.00 33.00
Inflation Rate 3.00% 2.80% 2.50% 2.20%
Real Discount Rate 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50%
17.00
2.00%
6.50%
5
8.63%
50.68%
$17.00
$11.24
REAL AND INFLATION - CONSTANT DISCOUNT RATE
(In Thousands of $)
Inputs
Inflation Rate 3.00%
Real Discount Rate 5.00%
Preiod 0 1 2 3 4
Current Investments 100
Future Value of each Cash Flow 21.00 34.00 40.00 33.00
Outputs
Discount Rate 8.15%
17.00
5
$17.00
$11.49
NET PRESENT VALUE - GENERAL DISCOUNT RATE
(In Thousands of $)
Inputs
Preiod 0 1 2 3 4
Current Investments 100
Future Value of each Cash Flow 21.00 34.00 40.00 33.00
Discount Rate 8.00% 7.60% 7.30% 7.00%
17.00
7.00%
5
42.76%
$17.00
$11.91
NET PRESENT VALUE - CONSTANT DISCOUNT RATE
(In Thousands of $)
Inputs
Discount Rate 8%
Preiod 0 1 2 3 4
Current Investments 100
Future Value of each Cash Flow 21.00 34.00 40.00 33.00
17.00
5
17.00
11.57
ANNUITY - SYSTEM OF FOUR ANNUITY VARIABLES
Inputs
Payments 80
Discount Rate / Period 6%
Number of Periods 5
Present Value 336.99
Payments
Payments using the Formula 80
Payments using the PMT Function 80
Discount Rate/Period
Discount Rate/ Per Usion the RATE Function 6.00%
Number of Periods
Num of Periods using NPER Function 5
5
80
59.78
ANNUITY - FUTURE VALUE
Inputs
Payments 80
Discount Rate / Period 6%
Number of Periods 5