Fidelity Model Worksheet Mar 2019
Fidelity Model Worksheet Mar 2019
Fidelity Model Worksheet Mar 2019
Fidelity Moldings
Financial Model
Prepared By:
The Marquee Group
Fidelity Moldings
Summary Values
(1)
COSTS TAXES
Cost Item 2019 Increases - Values are calculated assuming a share purchase
Raw Materials $226.0 per Unit Inflation on a unit basis - Interest Deductibility limit 30.0%
Chemicals $66.1 per Unit Inflation on a unit basis - NOL deduction limit 80.0%
Energy $11.2 MM Inflation on a total $ basis - Include Depreciation in Interest test until 2022
Supplies $12.2 MM Inflation on a total $ basis - Tax rate assumed in the model: 21.0%
Operating Labor $26.0 MM Inflation on a total $ basis - Blended Tax Dep'n Rate assumed in the model: 15.0%
Salaries $10.2 MM Inflation on a total $ basis - Opening NOL balance ($MM): $25.0
Insurance $7.1 MM Inflation on a total $ basis - Opening Tax Basis balance ($MM): $116.2
Other $2.0 MM Inflation on a total $ basis - Interest Carry Forward balance ($MM): $0.0
SG&A $3.9 MM Inflation on a total $ basis
EQUITY OPERATIONS
Stock Price - 03/26/21 $12.25 - Operating Days per Year: 350
Average Stock Price - 2018 $10.80 - Factory Capacity (Units per day): 1,200
Common Dividend Payout Rate 20.0% - Inventory Calculation LIFO
Fully Diluted Shares O/S (MM) - Dec. 31, 2018 14.80
The Marquee Group
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The Marquee Group
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Fidelity Moldings
Inputs and Assumptions
PRODUCTION ASSUMPTION
ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
Cost Inflation
Base Case 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2%
Best Case 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Worst Case 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5%
FX Rate - US$ / C$
Base Case 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90
Best Case 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91
Worst Case 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
SALES SCENARIOS
Gross Sales Price in the U.S. - US$/Unit
Base Case 780.0 745.0 825.0 805.0 815.0 794.0
Best Case: +5% 819.0 782.3 866.3 845.3 855.8 833.7
Worst Case: -5% 741.0 707.8 783.8 764.8 774.3 754.3
Sales Volume Distribution - % to U.S. 40.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 65.0%
Fidelity Moldings
Revenue Schedule
Projected
2016A 2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Term.
Exchange Rate (US$ / C$) 0.74 0.85 0.90
Cost Inflation (for Freight) (%)
Capacity Utilization (%)
Available Units
Operating Days (Days) 350.0 350.0 350.0 - - - - -
Units per day (Units) 1,200.0 900.0 1,200.0 - - - - -
Capacity (000's units) 420.0 315.0 420.0
Units Produced per day (Units) 1,000.0 800.0 1,086.0
Units Produced (000's units) 350.0 280.0 380.0
Opening Inventory (000's units) - 23.0 - - - - - - 0.0
Available Units (000's units) 350.0 303.0 380.0 - - - - - -
Sales Volume
Operating Days (Days) 340.0 335.0 348.0
Sales Volume Growth (%) 2.0% 1.6% 1.5%
Units per day (Units) 960.0 975.0 990.0
Annual Sales Volume (000's units) 326.4 326.6 344.5
Sales Volume Distribution
Sales Volume to U.S. (%) 35.0% 36.0% 38.0%
Sales Volume to Canada (%) 65.0% 64.0% 62.0%
Total Sales Volume (%) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Revenue
Gross Revenue - U.S. ($ MM) 93.7 101.1 104.7
Gross Revenue - Canada ($ MM) 124.8 139.5 140.3
Freight & Warehousing ($ MM) 28.7 30.8 32.9
Net Revenue ($ MM) $189.8 $209.8 $212.2
The Marquee Group
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The Marquee Group
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CURRENTLY RUNNING: BASE CASE SCENARIO
Fidelity Moldings
Costs of Production
Projected
2016A 2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Units Produced (000's units) 350.0 280.0 380.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Available Units (000's units) 350.0 303.0 380.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cost Inflation (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
COSTS IN $MM
Variable Costs
Raw Material ($ MM) 76.3 63.3 83.2
Chemicals ($ MM) 22.1 17.9 24.7
Total Variable Costs ($ MM) 98.4 81.2 107.9
Fixed Costs
Energy ($ MM) 10.0 10.0 10.0
Supplies ($ MM) 12.0 12.0 13.0
Operating Labor ($ MM) 25.0 25.0 25.0
Salaries & Benefits ($ MM) 10.0 10.0 10.0
Insurance ($ MM) 6.0 6.0 6.0
Other ($ MM) 2.0 2.0 3.0
Total Fixed Costs ($ MM) 65.0 65.0 67.0
Total Costs of Production ($ MM) 163.4 146.2 174.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Add: Opening Inventory ($ MM) - 11.0 -
Less: Closing Inventory ($ MM) 11.0 - 16.3
Cost of Sales ($ MM) $152.4 $157.2 $158.6
Fidelity Moldings
Income Statement
Projected
2016A 2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Term.
Sales Volume (000's units) 326.4 326.6 344.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Revenue
Gross Revenue ($ MM) 218.5 240.6 245.1
Freight & Warehousing ($ MM) 28.7 30.8 32.9
Net Revenue ($ MM) 189.8 209.8 212.2
Average Diluted Shares O/S (MM's) 13.9 14.2 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings per Share ($ / share) $0.69 $1.44 $1.37 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margins
EBITDA Margin 17.9% 23.3% 23.5% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
EBIT Margin 9.8% 16.0% 16.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Return on Equity 9.4% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Fidelity Moldings
Cash Flow Statement
($ Millions)
Projected
2016A 2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Operating Activities
Net Income 9.6 20.5 20.0
Depreciation & Amortization 15.4 15.5 15.8
Future Income Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0
Changes in working capital 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Cash Flow 25.0 36.0 35.8
Investing Activities
CAPEX (14.1) (15.0) (15.5)
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (14.1) (15.0) (15.5)
Financing Activities
Revolver Issuance / (Repayment)
Term Debt Issuance / (Repayment)
Common Shares Issuance/ (Buy-Back)
Common Dividends
Financing Cash Flow
Fidelity Moldings
Balance Sheet
($ Millions)
Projected
2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ASSETS
Cash 0.0
Accounts Receivable 28.3
Inventory 16.3
Other 1.5
Total Current Assets 46.1
Fidelity Moldings
Depreciation Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2016A 2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
CAPEX
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Fidelity Moldings
Income Tax Schedule (Part 1)
($ Millions)
Projected
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NOL Deduction Limit 80.0%
EBT (after Tax Dep'n and NOLs before Interest Adjustment) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Fidelity Moldings
Income Tax Schedule (Part 2)
($ Millions)
Projected
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Interest Deductibility limit 30.0%
Include Depreciation in Interest test 2022
Tax Rate 21.0%
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (as is on I/S) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Add: Accounting Depreciation
Deduct: Tax Depreciation
Deduct: Total Interest Expense for Tax Purposes
Add: Interest Income
Deduct: NOL Used
EBT After Deductions E
Fidelity Moldings
Working Capital Schedule (Part 1)
($ Millions)
Projected
2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Inventory
Opening Inventory (000's units) 0.0
Add: Units Produced (000's units)
Less: Sales Volume (000's units)
Closing Inventory (000's units)
Fidelity Moldings
Working Capital Schedule (Part 2)
($ Millions)
Projected
2017A 2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Days In
Accounts Receivable (days)
Inventory (days)
Accounts Payable (days)
Account Balances
Accounts Receivable ($ MM)
Inventory ($ MM)
Accounts Payable ($ MM)
Net Working Capital ($ MM)
Fidelity Moldings
Debt and Interest Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FINANCING COMPONENT
Cash
Amount Outstanding - Beginning
Change in Cash
Amount Outstanding - Ending
Interest Rate
Annual Interest Income
Revolver
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Mandatory Debt Repayments
Dividends
FCF After Mandatory Debt Repayment and Dividend
Fidelity Moldings
Shareholders' Equity Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Common Shares
Amount Outstanding - Beginning
New Issuance / (Buy-Back)
Amount Outstanding - Ending
Dividend Payout Rate
Net Income
Common Dividend
Retained Earnings
Amount Outstanding - Beginning
Net Income
Common Dividend
Amount Outstanding - Ending
Shares Outstanding
Cost of Equity
Average Stock Price
Fidelity Moldings
Credit Statistics and Covenants
($ Millions)
Projected
2018F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Consolidated Ratios
Net Debt / EBITDA Covenant
EBITDA Cushion
Fidelity Moldings
Income Tax Schedule for Calculating UFCF
($ Millions)
Projected
Tax Rate 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
EBT (after Tax Dep'n and NOLs) B $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Fidelity Moldings
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Term.
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
EBITDA
Current Taxes
Changes in working capital
CAPEX
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (DCF Valuation)
Fidelity Moldings
DCF Valuation Schedule
($ Millions)
Fidelity Moldings
Alternate DCF Valuation Schedule
($ Millions)
PV of Terminal Year
0.5%
W
A
1.0%
C
C
1.5%
2.0%
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