Governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a 36-point lead over Rob Astorino in New York's gubernatorial race according to a Siena College Poll. Cuomo has a favorable rating of 63% compared to Astorino's 18%. The poll also found that voters want the bipartisan coalition to continue leading the New York State Senate and for Cuomo to stay out of Senate races. Incumbents Schneiderman and DiNapoli also have large early leads in their races.
Governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a 36-point lead over Rob Astorino in New York's gubernatorial race according to a Siena College Poll. Cuomo has a favorable rating of 63% compared to Astorino's 18%. The poll also found that voters want the bipartisan coalition to continue leading the New York State Senate and for Cuomo to stay out of Senate races. Incumbents Schneiderman and DiNapoli also have large early leads in their races.
Governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a 36-point lead over Rob Astorino in New York's gubernatorial race according to a Siena College Poll. Cuomo has a favorable rating of 63% compared to Astorino's 18%. The poll also found that voters want the bipartisan coalition to continue leading the New York State Senate and for Cuomo to stay out of Senate races. Incumbents Schneiderman and DiNapoli also have large early leads in their races.
Governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a 36-point lead over Rob Astorino in New York's gubernatorial race according to a Siena College Poll. Cuomo has a favorable rating of 63% compared to Astorino's 18%. The poll also found that voters want the bipartisan coalition to continue leading the New York State Senate and for Cuomo to stay out of Senate races. Incumbents Schneiderman and DiNapoli also have large early leads in their races.
For Immediate Release: Monday, June 16, 2014 Contact: Steven Greenberg, 518-469-9858 PDF version; crosstabs; website: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY
Siena College Poll: Cuomo Maintains Huge Lead Over Astorino 36 Points; Cuomo Favorability Up; Astorino Remains Largely Unknown Voters on Senate: Coalition, Yes; IDC Partner with Reps; Cuomo Stay Out Democratic Incumbents Schneiderman & DiNapoli Have Large Early Leads Voters Divided if They or the State Are Better/Worse Off than Four Years Ago Loudonville, NY. Governor Andrew Cuomo holds a huge 36-point lead over Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, 57-21 percent. Cuomo has a better than two-to-one favorability rating, while Astorino remains unknown to more than two-thirds of New Yorkers, according to a Siena College Poll of New York voters released today. The other independently elected statewide office holders Comptroller Tom DiNapoli and Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, both Democrats also have large leads over little-known opponents. DiNapoli leads Onondaga County Comptroller Bob Antonacci by 34 points and Schneiderman leads John Cahill by 25 points.
A large majority of voters, 59 percent, want to see the State Senate continue to be led by a coalition of Democrats and Republicans after the election. By a 53-36 percent margin, voters want to see the Independent Democratic Conference continue to partner with the Republicans rather than the Democrats, and by a 55-38 percent margin, they want Cuomo to stay out of senate races, rather than help Democrats gain control of the Senate.
Slightly more than one-quarter of voters say they are better off today than four years ago, while a little less than one-quarter say they are worse off and half say they are about the same. When it comes to New York, one-third say the state is better off than it was four years ago, one-quarter say it s worse and 40 percent say the same.
There are five months till Election Day. No race is over in June. This is a snapshot of all registered voters, not just those likely to vote in November. All true. But true too are two other facts: Astorino has a huge gap to close, and it s hard to beat a popular incumbent when you face a two-to-one party disadvantage and you are unknown to two-thirds of voters, including 70 percent of your own party, said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
While Cuomo leads among Democrats by 69 points, Astorino only leads among Republicans by 29 points. And Cuomo wins among independents by 31 points, Greenberg said. Additionally, his favorability, job performance and re-elect ratings are all the best they ve been since J anuary. Half of voters see Cuomo as a moderate and, by a two-to-one margin, voters see him as a pragmatic, rather than partisan, Democrat.
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Cuomo s favorability rating is 63-31 percent (up from 57-38 percent in April) and his job performance is up to 49-50 percent (from 45-54 percent). By a 57-35 percent margin, voters say they are prepared to re-elect Cuomo compared to preferring someone else (50-41 percent in April). Astorino has an 18-12 percent favorability rating, with 69 percent having no opinion (18-16-66 percent in April).
When it comes to which candidate voters identify with on issues, they clearly line up with Cuomo, Greenberg said. Whether economic issues like making New York more business friendly or instituting policies to create new jobs or issues such as improving education, medical marijuana or the SAFE Act, a majority say their position is closer to Cuomo s. Strong pluralities are with Cuomo on combating corruption and the Dream Act. Only between 13 and 21 percent of voters say they re with Astorino on any of these issues.
Voters Want Cuomo Out of Senate Races; the IDC to Stay with Republicans; and a Continued Coalition New York voters say they like the State Senate just the way it is right now, with a bipartisan coalition of Republicans and Democrats in control. Only 22 percent want the Democrats in control after the November election, including only 37 percent of Democrats. Even fewer, 16 percent, want the Republicans in control. A strong majority, 59 percent including 56 percent of Democrats, 53 percent of Republicans and a whopping 70 percent of independents want a bipartisan coalition to continue leading the Senate, Greenberg said.
While a majority of Democrats would like to see the Independent Democratic Conference partner with the other Democrats, 81 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents want to see the IDC continue to partner with the Republicans. New York City voters are divided but strong majorities of downstate suburban and upstate voters like the status quo, Greenberg said.
And should Cuomo, the titular head of the Democratic Party, help his party gain control of the Senate? Fifty- seven percent of Democrats think he should but 83 percent of Republicans, two-thirds of independents, and more than one-third of Democrats say he should stay out of Senate campaigns, Greenberg said.
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As you consider your stance compared to the candidates position, would you describe yourself as Issue Closer to Cuomo (strongly) On the Fence Closer to Astorino (strongly) Making NY more business friendly 58% (32%) 17% 13% (7%) Policies to create new jobs 57% (32%) 15% 15% (7%) Improving public education 55% (34%) 16% 15% (9%) Medical marijuana 52% (26%) 22% 13% (8%) The SAFE Act 50% (35%) 15% 21% (8%) Combatting corruption 49% (30%) 21% 16% (8%) The Dream Act 40% (23%) 22% 19% (9%) Hydrofracking 28% (15%) 27% 14% (8%) Siena College Poll June 16, 2014 Siena College Poll June 16, 2014 Page 3
DiNapoli & Schneiderman Not Well Known, But Have Large Leads Over More Unknown Opponents DiNapoli has 26-12-62 percent favorability rating (29-17-54 percent in April). Currently, 38 percent say they are prepared to re-elect him, with 28 percent preferring someone else (up from 32-35 percent). Schneiderman has a 23-16-61 percent favorability rating (27-20-53 percent in April). He has a 41-27 percent re-elect rating (up from 35-32 percent). Antonacci and Cahill are both unknown to more than three-quarters of voters.
The Comptroller and Attorney General are far from household names in New York. Each is only viewed favorably by about one-quarter of voters, Greenberg said. However, their opponents are known to far fewer voters. Schneiderman and DiNapoli have the built in advantages of incumbency and a two-to-one party enrollment edge. Right now, Schneiderman leads Cahill 52-27 percent and DiNapoli leads Antonacci even bigger, 56-22 percent. Cahill and Antonacci have difficult tasks in front of them in sparsely-covered, down-ballot races.
Less than One-Third of Voters Say They or the State Are Better Off Today than Four Years Ago Slightly more voters, 32 percent, say New York is better off today than four years ago, compared to 26 percent who say the state is worse off. A plurality of 40 percent say things are about the same, Greenberg said. More than twice as many Democrats say the state is better than worse, while twice as many Republicans say the state is worse rather than better, and independents are closely divided. More downstaters say things are better rather than worse, while by a small margin more upstaters say things are worse, not better.
When it comes to the famous Ronald Reagan question are you better off now than you were four years ago? only 28 percent say they and their families are better off today than four years ago, with almost as many, 23 percent, saying they are worse off, and nearly half, 49 percent, saying things are about the same, Greenberg said. A majority or plurality of voters from every region, party, ideology, gender, age, race, religion, and income level say things are about the same.
By 11-Point Margin, New Yorkers Say State is Headed on Right Track, Not Wrong Direction By a 50-39 percent margin, voters say New York is headed on the right track, not the wrong direction, up from 46-44 percent in April, Greenberg said. By a two-to one margin, Republicans say the state is headed in the wrong direction, while by a two-to-one margin, Democrats say the state is on the right track. Independents agree with Democrats 52-39 percent. New York City voters say right track by a 26-point margin and downstate suburbanites agree by a 13-point margin. Upstaters say wrong direction by a five-point margin, however, that has narrowed considerably from an 18-point margin in April.
### This Siena College Poll was conducted June 8-12, 2014 by telephone calls to 835 New York State registered voters. It has an overall margin of error of + 3.4 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing to landline and cell phones weighted to reflect known population patterns. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY www.siena.edu/sri
Siena College Poll Trends June 2014
Q. 4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Andrew Cuomo?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 63 31 6 April 2014 57 38 6 March 2014 58 34 7 February 2014 60 35 5 January 2014 66 28 6 November 2013 61 32 6 October 2013 62 32 6 September 2013 64 32 4 August 2013 65 30 5 HIGHEST EVER 77 (2/11) 42 (10/06) 24 (1/06, 2/06, 9/07) LOWEST EVER 44 (8/06, 10/06) 14 (8/09) 3 (10/20/10)
Q. 14 How would you rate the job that Andrew Cuomo is doing as Governor? Would you rate it excellent, good, fair, or poor?
DATE EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR POOR DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 8 41 34 16 1 April 2014 9 36 36 18 1 March 2014 7 39 35 19 1 February 2014 7 41 38 13 1 January 2014 10 44 35 11 1 November 2013 7 37 39 17 1 October 2013 8 44 34 13 1 September 2013 11 38 36 14 1 August 2013 9 43 33 13 2 HIGHEST EVER 17 (1/12) 47 (4/12, etc.) 39 (11/13) 19 (3/14) 28 (1/11) LOWEST EVER 7 (Several) 34 (1/11) 24 (1/11) 4 (2/11, 1/11) 1 (many)
Q. 11 I know it s a ways off, but as things stand now, if Andrew Cuomo runs for re-election as Governor this year, would you vote to re-elect him or would you prefer someone else?
DATE RE-ELECT CUOMO PREFER SOMEONE ELSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 57 35 8 April 2014 50 41 9 March 2014 49 41 10 February 2014 54 37 9 January 2014 57 33 10 November 2013 51 41 9 October 2013 52 38 10 September 2013 52 39 10 August 2013 55 35 9 HIGHEST EVER 62 (12/12) 41 (4/14, 3/14, 11/13, 6/13) 10 (3/14, 10/13, 9/13) LOWEST EVER 49 (3/14) 29 (12/12) 7 (6/13, 4/13)
Q. 15 Based on what you ve seen of him as Governor so far, would you describe Andrew Cuomo as a liberal, a moderate or a conservative?
DATE LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 34 48 10 9 April 2014 35 46 11 8 February 2014 31 52 9 7 September 2013 36 46 12 6 HIGHEST EVER 36 (9/13) 60 (3/11) 15 (4/11, 2/11) 10 (4/11, 1/11) LOWEST EVER 21 (2/11) 46 (4/14, 3/13) 8 (7/11) 6 (9/13)
Siena College Poll Trends June 2014 Page 2
Q. 17 Which of the following two choices best describes Governor Cuomo: hes a partisan Democrat who does not work well with Republicans, or hes a pragmatic Democrat who works well with Republicans? (Choices were rotated.)
DATE PARTISAN DEMOCRAT PRAGMATIC DEMOCRAT DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 30 58 12 April 2014 29 59 12 HIGHEST EVER 30 (6/14) 59 (4/14) 12 (6/14, 4/14) LOWEST EVER 29 (4/14) 58 (6/14) 12 (6/14, 4/14)
Q. 5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Rob Astorino?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 18 12 69 April 2014 18 16 66 March 2014 17 19 65 February 2014 11 15 73 January 2014 14 10 76 November 2013 12 14 75 HIGHEST EVER 18 (6/14, 4/14) 19 (3/14) 76 (1/14) LOWEST EVER 11 (2/14) 10 (1/14) 65 (3/14)
Q. 7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Eric Schneiderman?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 23 16 61 April 2014 27 20 53 February 2014 27 19 55 January 2014 27 15 58 November 2013 27 16 57 September 2013 23 18 60 August 2013 25 15 60 HIGHEST EVER 29 (10/31/10) 27 (10/31/10) 86 (11/09) LOWEST EVER 8 (11/09) 6 (5/10, 11/09) 44 (10/31/10)
Q. 12 If Eric Schneiderman runs for re-election as Attorney General this year, would you vote to re-elect him or would you prefer someone else?
DATE RE-ELECT SCHNEIDERMAN PREFER SOMEONE ELSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 41 27 33 April 2014 35 32 33 January 2014 29 33 38 HIGHEST EVER 41 (6/14) 33 (1/14) 38 (1/14) LOWEST EVER 29 (1/14) 27 (6/14) 33 (6/14, 4/14)
Q. 9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Thomas DiNapoli?
DATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 26 12 62 April 2014 29 17 54 February 2014 26 21 54 January 2014 28 17 55 November 2013 27 19 54 September 2013 26 20 55 August 2013 26 18 57 HIGHEST EVER 30 (11/10, 10/20/10) 36 (10/31/10) 80 (6/07) LOWEST EVER 7 (6/07, 5/07) 10 (12/09, 11/08) 37 (10/31/10)
Siena College Poll Trends June 2014 Page 3
Q. 13 If Tom DiNapoli runs for re-election as State Comptroller this year, would you vote to re-elect him or would you prefer someone else?
DATE RE-ELECT DINAPOLI PREFER SOMEONE ELSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 38 28 35 April 2014 32 35 33 January 2014 35 30 35 HIGHEST EVER 38 (6/14) 35 (4/14) 35 (6/14, 1/14) LOWEST EVER 32 (4/14) 28 (6/14) 33 (4/14)
Q. 18 Currently, the New York State Senate is controlled by a bipartisan coalition of all the Republicans in the Senate and five Democrats known as the Independent Democratic Caucus. In November, all 63 Senate seats will be up for election. After the election, who would you like to see control the State Senate: only the Democrats, only the Republicans, or a coalition of Democrats and Republicans, like we have now? (Choices were rotated.)
Q. 22 The Governor has proposed launching a pilot or test program to permit about 20 New York hospitals to provide medical marijuana to patients being treated for serious illness. Which of the following three options best describes how you feel about this: the Governor s test program is the way to go; New York should immediately move beyond a test program and make medical marijuana legal, as about 20 states have already done; or medical marijuana should remain illegal in New York? (Choices were rotated.) GOVERNORS LEGALIZE MEDICAL KEEP MEDICAL DONT KNOW/ DATE TEST PROGRAM MARIJUANA MARIJUANA ILLEGAL NO OPINION June 2014 37 43 18 2 April 2014 26 51 21 3 March 2014 31 47 20 3 February 2014 32 45 20 3 January 2014 28 49 21 2 HIGHEST EVER 37 (6/14) 51 (4/14) 21 (4/14, 1/14) 3 (4/14, 3/14, 2/14) LOWEST EVER 26 (4/14) 43 (6/14) 18 (6/14) 2 (6/14, 1/14)
Q. 23 Looking beyond the issue of medical marijuana, two states Colorado and Washington have legalized and regulated marijuana for recreational use. Do you support or oppose passing a similar law in New York to legalize and regulate marijuana for recreational use?
DATE SUPPORT OPPOSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION April 2014 41 54 5 April 2014 43 52 5 March 2014 42 54 4 February 2014 43 53 4 January 2014 41 54 5 HIGHEST EVER 43 (4/14, 2/14) 54 (6/14, 3/14, 1/14) 5 (6/14, 4/14, 1/14) LOWEST EVER 41 (6/14, 1/14) 52 (4/14) 4 (3/14, 2/14)
Q. 24 Thinking about the minimum wage in New York, do you support or oppose allowing local governments to increase the minimum wage in their community to a higher rate than the states minimum wage?
DATE SUPPORT OPPOSE NEED MORE INFO DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 72 25 1 2 February 2014 73 24 2 1 HIGHEST EVER 73 (2/14) 25 (6/14) 2 (2/14) 2 (6/14) LOWEST EVER 72 (6/14) 24 (2/14) 1 (6/14) 1 (2/14)
Siena College Poll Trends June 2014 Page 4
Q. 1 Is New York State on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? DATE RIGHT TRACK WRONG DIRECTION DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2014 50 39 11 April 2014 46 44 10 March 2014 46 43 12 February 2014 48 40 12 January 2014 52 36 12 November 2013 46 44 10 October 2013 44 44 12 September 2013 43 46 11 August 2013 47 40 13 HIGHEST EVER 57 (1/13) 76 (10/31/10) 30 (1/07) LOWEST EVER 14 (10/10) 26 (1/07) 7 (5/13)
Poll Trend Notes: All surveys are of registered voters except for the polls of August and October 2012, October 2010, September and October 2008, and September and October 2006, which are polls of likely voters. Trends reflect questions asked at least twice since the first Siena College Poll in February 2005.
Results listed here include all times questions have been asked since August 2013.
Highest Ever and Lowest Ever is provided at the bottom of each question.