EMBARGOED UNTIL 5 a.m. EST Tuesday, Aug.

16, 2022

UNF Poll: Fried Leading in Democratic Governor’s Primary

Florida voters most concerned about cost of living
A new poll of likely primary voters in Florida from The Public Opinion Research Lab
(PORL) at the University of North Florida shows gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried ahead of
Charlie Crist in the Democratic primary, but still seven points behind republican incumbent Ron
DeSantis in a head-to-head race among registered voters.
Registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the August 23 primary election were
asked their vote choices for the Democratic nominees for Florida Governor and U.S. Senate. A
respondent is considered a “likely” voter if they said they would definitely vote, or had already
voted in the primary. In the Governor’s race, 47% said they would vote for Nikki Fried, followed
by 43% for Charlie Crist; Cadance Daniel and Robert Willis had 4% and 1%, respectively; 6%
didn’t know or refused to answer.
For the U.S. Senate seat, the overwhelming majority indicated a vote for Val Demings at
80%, with William Sanchez and Brian Rush tied in a distant second with 4% each. Two percent
indicated a vote for Ricardo de la Fuente, and 10% didn’t know or refused.
“Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked
registered Democrats about vote choice in February,” commented Dr. Michael Binder, PORL
faculty director and UNF professor of political science. “It’s possible that the overturning of Roe
v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are
almost 20 points more likely to vote for her.”
Registered voters who said they would vote in the general midterm election were asked
who they would vote for if the election were held today, and the candidates were Ron DeSantis
and Nikki Fried. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for DeSantis, with 43%
indicating a vote for Fried, and 5% said they would vote for someone else. DeSantis also came
out on top with 50% when asked the same question if the Democratic candidate was Charlie
Crist, who had 42%, and 6% saying they would vote for someone else.
Val Demings came out on top in the head-to-head against Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate,
with 48% indicating a vote for Demings and 44% for Rubio, with 7% saying they would vote for
someone else.
“Fried and Crist are trailing behind DeSantis in head-to-heads,” Binder noted, “but both
potential match-ups are much closer than they were when we polled registered voters in
February, when DeSantis was up by over 20 percentage points. It is important to keep in mind
that these are registered voters, and Republicans are generally more likely to turn out in
November.”
 Registered Republicans were also asked who they would vote for in a hypothetical
presidential primary in 2024 between Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. Of those respondents,
47% said they would vote for DeSantis and 45% for Trump; 7% said they would vote for
someone else.
Relatedly, all respondents were then asked how they would characterize DeSantis and
Trump’s personal relationship, to which 47% said acquaintances, 42% said friends, and just 8%
said they think they are enemies.
“DeSantis and Trump are the two most popular Republican names being discussed for
2024 and DeSantis is edging him out in their home state,” commented Binder. “People are split
on whether Trump and DeSantis are friends or merely acquaintances, I guess we’ll really find
out after the midterms and the 2024 race starts to heat up.”
In addition to primary and general election questions, respondents were asked about job
approval for several federal and state officials. President Joe Biden has an approval rating of
38%, with 59% disapproving. The U.S. Supreme Court had similarly low approval, with 37%
approving and 59% disapproval. U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott both fared no
better, each with 37% approving.
Governor Ron DeSantis had an approval rating of 50%, down from 58% in February of
this year. Forty-five percent said they approve strongly of the job DeSantis is doing, while only
5% said they approve somewhat. Conversely, 41% said they strongly disapprove, with only 7%
disapproving somewhat. Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried had an approval rating of 40%,
with 27% disapproving and 31% who don’t know.
“The polarization of DeSantis support is striking, if not altogether surprising with political
agenda and media presence this past year,” Binder commented. “More people seem to have an
opinion about Fried since she started campaigning for Governor—her ‘don’t know’ percentage
has decreased dramatically from 49% in February.”
Respondents were also asked about the recent Supreme Court decision overturning
Roe v. Wade, which established the constitutional right to abortion in the first three months of
pregnancy. When asked how this decision would impact their voting behavior, 51% said made
them more likely to vote in the November midterm election, 46% said it would not affect their
decision to vote, and 3% said it would make them less likely to vote.
In a related question, respondents were asked if they would support a law making
abortion illegal in all cases in the State of Florida, to which the majority (59%) said they would
be strongly opposed, and 12% somewhat opposed. Twenty-seven percent said they would
support such a law: 13% strongly and 14% somewhat.
“Without the protections of Roe, the likelihood of a strict or outright ban on abortion being
introduced in Florida increases dramatically, and this looks to be mobilizing Democrats to the
polls—78% said the decision made them more likely to vote in November,” noted Binder. “But
among Republicans, most (54%) said they are at least somewhat supportive of an outright ban.”
When asked what they think is the most important problem facing Florida today, a
notable 43% of respondents said cost of living was the most pressing issue. Tied in a distant
second place are education and abortion/reproductive rights, each with 8%. Cost of living is a
new category added since the last time this question was asked in February of this year, when
the top choice was economy, jobs, and unemployment with 22%, now down to 7%.
“With record inflation this past year, it’s no wonder that Florida voters are concerned
about the cost of living,” commented Binder. “Even with signs that inflation may begin to ease,
cost of living in Florida does not appear to be improving anytime soon.”
Finally, respondents were asked who they think actually won the 2020 election—Joe
Biden or Donald Trump—and whether they believe much of mainstream media to be “fake
news.” Overall, 60% said Biden either definitely or probably won the election, while 38% said
Trump definitely or probably won. Regarding mainstream media, 56% said it is fake news, with
42% indicating it is not fake news. Both questions show a clear partisan split, with 95% of
Democrats saying Joe Biden won the 2020 election, and 84% saying the mainstream media is
not fake news. Among Republicans, 77% said Trump really won the 2020 election, and 93%
said the mainstream media is fake news.
“While we see a partisan divide in perceptions of the 2020 election, Democrats seem to
be much more certain, with 91% saying Biden definitely won,” Binder noted, “but only 38% of
Republicans say Trump definitely won, the remaining 39% saying he probably won.” Binder
noted. “Unsurprisingly, 98% of folks who said Trump won in 2020 also think that the mainstream
media is fake news.”

Methodology
The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll consists of a random sample of 1,624 registered
Florida voters and was conducted August 8 through August 12, 2022, by the Public Opinion
Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida. The survey was administered through
email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sampling frame was comprised of registered
voters in the July 2022 update of the Florida voter file, who either had a listed email address or
could be matched using a commercial database. Sixty-five percent of the respondents who were
missing email addresses were appended using Aristotle’s Match-It service, which matched
respondents to email addresses using the name and physical address listed in the voter file.
This study had a 4.2% response rate.
To ensure a representative sample of registered voters, the 10 Florida designated media
market areas were stratified into 18 strata. Heavily urban and highly educated counties were
separated out from their media markets and given their own stratum.
The weighting process had three steps. First, data were weighted by geographic strata
to reflect the population across the State of Florida, followed by the respondent’s educational
attainment. Finally, data were weighted to partisan registration, age, race, sex, and 2020 vote
choice. Education weights were created from the Census Bureau’s American Community
Survey (ACS) 2020 estimates for the percent of college-educated individuals over 25 in the
state of Florida, approximately 31% statewide. Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights
were created from the July 2022 update of the Florida Voter File to match registered voters in
Florida.
All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 26 rake
weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on
is missing. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.4 percentage points,
including estimated design effect.
The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill
each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social, and cultural projects. The PORL
opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American
Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the
Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL’s
goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion
research. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu
or (904) 620-2784.

About University of North Florida

The University of North Florida is a nationally ranked university located on a beautiful
1,381-acre campus in Jacksonville surrounded by nature. Serving 17,000 students, UNF
features six colleges of distinction with innovative programs in high-demand fields. UNF
students receive individualized attention from faculty and gain valuable real-world experience
engaging with community partners. A top public university, UNF prepares students to make a
difference in Florida and around the globe. Learn more at www.unf.edu.

###

Media Contact:
Amanda Ennis
Media Relations Manager
(904) 620-2192

Methodology Results Contact

Dr. Michael Binder
Public Opinion Research Lab Director
(904) 620-2784
Florida Statewide Primary Survey - August 8 -14, 2022
Crosstabulations

For more information visit:https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/

What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Cost of living 43% 36% 46% 48% 41% 46% 46% 38% 40% 57% 56% 19% 49% 54% 48% 42% 45% 33%
Education 8% 10% 9% 6% 10% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1% 7% 10% 21% 12% 5% 7% 6% 6%
Abortion/Reproductive rights 8% 13% 1% 9% 6% 9% 6% 10% 8% 9% 4% 9% 11% 7% 12% 6% 5% 7%
Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 7% 3% 12% 6% 9% 6% 6% 10% 8% 4% 5% 7% 4% 4% 4% 15% 7% 8%
Gun Policy 6% 10% 2% 5% 3% 8% 7% 5% 5% 9% 3% 18% 4% 0% 6% 8% 6% 8%
Immigration 6% 1% 11% 5% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% - 9% 3% - 4% 3% 5% 8% 8%
Crime 5% 3% 4% 8% 7% 3% 6% 3% 5% 6% 3% 9% 1% 9% 0% 2% 6% 7%
Environment 5% 9% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 2% 3% 11% 8% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Healthcare 4% 5% 3% 3% 2% 5% 4% 3% 4% 1% 3% 9% - 7% 9% 2% 2% 2%
COVID-19 1% 2% - - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 2% - - - - - - 1% 1%
Something Else 7% 9% 8% 4% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 2% 1% 6% 8% 6% 12%
Don't know/Refusal 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% - - 2% - 1% 2%

Below is a list of Federal and State officials. Please indicate the extent to which you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing.
President Joe Biden
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly Approve 14% 34% 1% 7% 16% 13% 14% 15% 15% 28% 6% 8% 10% 12% 12% 17% 11% 18%
Somewhat Approve 24% 46% 5% 21% 22% 25% 23% 25% 22% 26% 22% 40% 16% 28% 27% 22% 25% 22%
Somewhat Disapprove 9% 14% 1% 13% 7% 11% 8% 10% 6% 10% 13% 22% 43% 8% 10% 7% 5% 3%
Strongly Disapprove 50% 6% 91% 53% 53% 47% 51% 48% 56% 26% 56% 30% 30% 51% 42% 51% 59% 53%
Don't Know 2% - - 6% 1% 3% 3% <1% <1% 9% 4% - - 1% 8% 3% - <1%
Refusal 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% - - - - <1% - <1% 4%

Below is a list of Federal and State officials. Please indicate the extent to which you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing.
The U.S. Supreme Court
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly Approve 13% 1% 43% 8% 20% 16% 19% 15% 19% - 31% 10% 9% 12% 12% 15% 22% 26%
Somewhat Approve 24% 4% 35% 17% 23% 15% 18% 19% 23% 1% 14% 26% 12% 9% 13% 20% 32% 21%
Somewhat Disapprove 18% 12% 10% 16% 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 20% 9% 10% 8% 14% 12% 17% 12% 12%
Strongly Disapprove 41% 76% 4% 36% 35% 42% 37% 42% 34% 68% 33% 41% 54% 42% 48% 30% 29% 38%
Don't Know 4% 6% 8% 21% 8% 14% 12% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 17% 24% 15% 15% 5% 2%
Refusal 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 1% 1% - - - <1% 3% <1% 2%

Below is a list of Federal and State officials. Please indicate the extent to which you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing.
Senator Marco Rubio
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly Approve 18% 1% 43% 8% 20% 16% 19% 15% 19% - 31% 10% 9% 12% 12% 15% 22% 26%
Somewhat Approve 19% 4% 35% 17% 23% 15% 18% 19% 23% 1% 14% 26% 12% 9% 13% 20% 32% 21%
Somewhat Disapprove 13% 12% 10% 16% 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 20% 9% 10% 8% 14% 12% 17% 12% 12%
Strongly Disapprove 39% 76% 4% 36% 35% 42% 37% 42% 34% 68% 33% 41% 54% 42% 48% 30% 29% 38%
Don't Know 11% 6% 8% 21% 8% 14% 12% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 17% 24% 15% 15% 5% 2%
Refusal 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 1% 1% - - - <1% 3% <1% 2%
 Below is a list of Federal and State officials. Please indicate the extent to which you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing.
Senator Rick Scott
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly Approve 16% 1% 37% 8% 17% 15% 17% 14% 16% - 26% 15% 8% 8% 9% 14% 20% 25%
Somewhat Approve 21% 8% 35% 19% 24% 17% 21% 19% 23% 9% 18% 25% 8% 13% 17% 26% 34% 20%
Somewhat Disapprove 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 8% 12% 10% 6% 7% 14% 17% 11% 6% 14% 12% 5%
Strongly Disapprove 44% 79% 13% 40% 41% 47% 44% 44% 43% 69% 33% 38% 53% 56% 52% 32% 33% 44%
Don't Know 9% 3% 5% 22% 7% 11% 8% 11% 6% 15% 15% 9% 14% 13% 17% 12% 1% 5%
Refusal 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - - - <1% 3% <1% 2%

Below is a list of Federal and State officials. Please indicate the extent to which you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing.
Governor Ron DeSantis
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly Approve 45% 4% 91% 36% 48% 42% 47% 39% 52% 11% 50% 26% 26% 30% 42% 53% 55% 50%
Somewhat Approve 5% 1% 4% 13% 6% 5% 5% 7% 4% 6% 9% 2% 6% 11% 6% 3% 5% 3%
Somewhat Disapprove 7% 11% 1% 9% 7% 7% 7% 7% 4% 12% 3% 27% 2% 6% 7% 11% 10% 5%
Strongly Disapprove 41% 83% 3% 36% 36% 44% 38% 46% 38% 62% 33% 44% 66% 46% 42% 32% 30% 41%
Don't Know 2% 1% 1% 6% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 8% 4% - - 8% 3% 0% 1% 1%
Refusal 1% 1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% - 1%

Below is a list of Federal and State officials. Please indicate the extent to which you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing.
Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly Approve 13% 20% 9% 12% 14% 13% 15% 10% 13% 16% 12% 15% 13% 12% 18% 14% 11% 13%
Somewhat Approve 27% 45% 18% 17% 29% 26% 27% 30% 28% 25% 26% 34% 20% 25% 27% 23% 30% 32%
Somewhat Disapprove 11% 9% 17% 8% 14% 9% 12% 11% 12% 13% 11% 3% 3% 7% 6% 20% 12% 14%
Strongly Disapprove 16% 5% 28% 14% 17% 15% 15% 17% 19% 6% 11% 14% 13% 15% 12% 13% 25% 16%
Don't Know 31% 20% 27% 49% 26% 36% 31% 31% 28% 38% 38% 34% 51% 40% 37% 29% 23% 24%
Refusal 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% - - 1% <1% 1% - 2%

As you may know, there is a primary election coming up on August 23rd. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming primary election?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
You will definitely vote 71% 70% 86% 56% 71% 71% 71% 72% 75% 61% 70% 68% 62% 67% 72% 71% 79% 72%
You will probably vote 8% 6% 5% 14% 7% 9% 8% 9% 7% 7% 13% 8% 19% 5% 13% 11% 6% 4%
You will probably not vote 8% 4% 2% 18% 6% 9% 8% 8% 5% 19% 10% 1% 14% 22% 3% 4% 2% 5%
You will definitely not vote 2% - 1% 6% 3% 1% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 5% 0% 2% 1% 2%
Already voted 9% 17% 6% 4% 10% 8% 10% 7% 10% 11% 6% 12% 2% 2% 11% 11% 7% 15%
Don't know/Refusal 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 10% - - 0% 1% 5% 2%

If the Democratic primary for Florida governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
[Likely Democratic primary voters only]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=529 n=529 n=0 n=0 n=267 n=262 n=135 n=392 n=406 n=62 n=44 n=17 n=11 n=36 n=58 n=71 n=94 n=259
Charlie Crist 43% 43% - - 52% 35% 44% 41% 43% 52% 33% 34% 22% 16% 57% 46% 44% 50%
Cadance Daniel 4% 4% - - 3% 5% 6% 1% 2% 12% 4% 2% - 1% - 13% 3% 5%
Nicole “Nikki” Fried 47% 47% - - 37% 55% 43% 53% 51% 34% 61% 26% 56% 81% 40% 40% 32% 42%
Robert L. Willis 1% 1% - - - 2% - 2% 1% 2% - - - - 3% - - 1%
Don't know/Refusal 6% 6% - - 8% 4% 8% 3% 3% - 2% 38% 22% 1% 1% 1% 21% 3%

If the Democratic primary for Florida governor were held today, which of the following
candidates would you vote for?
[Likely Democratic primary voters only]
Roe Affect Vote
More No
Total Likely Effect
n=529 n=383 n=142
Charlie Crist 43% 40% 55%
Cadance Daniel 4% 5% 1%
Nicole “Nikki” Fried 47% 47% 42%
Robert L. Willis 1% 1% 1%
Don't know/Refusal 6% 7% 1%

If the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
[Likely Democratic primary voters only]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=529 n=529 n=0 n=0 n=267 n=262 n=135 n=392 n=406 n=62 n=44 n=17 n=11 n=36 n=58 n=71 n=94 n=259
Ricardo De La Fuente 2% 2% - - 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% - 4% - - 1% 4% 1% 3% 1%
Val Demings 80% 80% - - 81% 80% 78% 85% 87% 82% 72% 47% 71% 97% 87% 67% 71% 84%
Brian Rush 4% 4% - - 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% - - - - 7% 4% - 6%
William Sanchez 4% 4% - - 5% 4% 6% 3% 1% - 21% 15% - - - 13% 3% 6%
Don't know/Refusal 10% 10% - - 8% 11% 11% 7% 5% 13% 4% 38% 29% 1% 3% 15% 23% 3%
 If the 2024 Republican presidential primary were held today and the following candidates were running, which candidate would you vote for?
[Registered Republicans only]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=671 n=0 n=671 n=0 n=426 n=245 n=223 n=440 n=589 n=3 n=60 n=19 n=15 n=34 n=44 n=85 n=172 n=321
Ron DeSantis 47% - 47% - 50% 45% 47% 49% 51% 50% 35% 36% 61% 52% 39% 52% 43% 48%
Donald Trump 45% - 45% - 43% 46% 47% 41% 41% - 57% 64% 32% 13% 58% 46% 54% 43%
Someone elese 7% - 7% - 6% 7% 6% 10% 7% 50% 7% - 7% 33% 3% 1% 3% 7%
Don't know/Refusal 1% - 1% - 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 1% - - 2% - 1% - 2%

Which of the following do you think best describes the relationship between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Friends 42% 53% 41% 29% 41% 42% 43% 40% 40% 45% 42% 44% 37% 36% 40% 32% 53% 45%
Acquaintances 47% 32% 56% 54% 47% 47% 46% 50% 50% 32% 51% 37% 54% 48% 49% 56% 43% 42%
Enemies 8% 13% 2% 9% 9% 6% 7% 9% 8% 9% 3% 16% 9% 8% 6% 7% 3% 11%
Don't know/Refusal 4% 2% 2% 8% 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% 13% 4% 3% - 9% 5% 5% 1% 2%

Compared to previous midterm elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Less enthusiastic 14% 15% 5% 24% 11% 16% 16% 11% 9% 46% 12% 7% 17% 27% 14% 14% 7% 9%
About the same 37% 38% 36% 39% 37% 38% 36% 39% 38% 26% 35% 53% 56% 42% 31% 49% 33% 29%
More enthusiastic 47% 48% 57% 35% 50% 45% 46% 49% 52% 27% 48% 39% 26% 31% 48% 37% 60% 60%
Don't know/Refusal 2% <1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5% 2% - <1% 7% <1% - 2%

Which of the following statements best describes your feelings toward the upcoming midterm election?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
I always/usually vote in midterm elections, and I will vote in
this one 70% 78% 80% 49% 74% 66% 69% 73% 76% 48% 63% 73% 64% 53% 66% 66% 74% 83%
I rarely/never vote in midterm elections, but I will vote in this
one 21% 17% 15% 32% 18% 23% 22% 20% 17% 34% 22% 26% 21% 25% 24% 28% 23% 12%
I always/usually vote in midterm elections, but I will not vote in
this one 2% <1% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% - 1% 1% 4% 0% 1% 2%
I rarely/never vote in midterm elections, and I will not vote in
this one 5% 3% 1% 9% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 2% 8% 2% 12% 10% 3% 5% 1% 2%
Don't know/Refusal 3% 1% 1% 9% 2% 4% 4% 1% 1% 15% 4% - 2% 12% 4% <1% 1% 2%

If the general election for Florida governor were held today, and the candidates were Ron DeSantis for the Republican Party and Charlie Crist for the Democratic Party, who would you vote for?
[Registered voters who said they would vote in the midterm election]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,534 n=564 n=641 n=329 n=908 n=626 n=445 n=1,076 n=1,227 n=98 n=153 n=56 n=36 n=99 n=156 n=209 n=337 n=697
Ron DeSantis (REP) 50% 5% 95% 51% 55% 46% 53% 45% 57% 21% 55% 31% 30% 46% 45% 55% 58% 53%
Charlie Crist (DEM) 42% 85% 2% 39% 40% 44% 40% 46% 38% 69% 33% 55% 62% 44% 46% 43% 35% 38%
Someone elese 6% 7% 2% 10% 4% 8% 6% 7% 3% 10% 12% 11% 6% 10% 8% 1% 4% 7%
Don't know/Refusal 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% - <1% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2%

If the general election for Florida governor were held today, and the candidates were Ron DeSantis for the Republican Party and Nikki Fried for the Democratic Party, who would you vote for?
[Registered voters who said they would vote in the midterm election]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,534 n=564 n=641 n=329 n=908 n=626 n=445 n=1,076 n=1,227 n=98 n=153 n=56 n=36 n=99 n=156 n=209 n=337 n=697
Ron DeSantis (REP) 50% 3% 95% 51% 54% 46% 52% 45% 56% 21% 55% 32% 30% 43% 44% 55% 60% 52%
Nikki Fried (DEM) 43% 90% 4% 35% 39% 47% 41% 48% 39% 71% 35% 57% 62% 53% 47% 44% 33% 38%
Someone elese 5% 4% 1% 12% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 11% 5% 5% 8% 1% 4% 6%
Don't know/Refusal 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 5% - 4% - 1% - 4% 4%

If the general election for U.S. Senator from Florida were being held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
[Registered voters who said they would vote in the midterm election]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,534 n=564 n=641 n=329 n=908 n=626 n=445 n=1,076 n=1,227 n=98 n=153 n=56 n=36 n=99 n=156 n=209 n=337 n=697
Marco Rubio (REP) 44% 3% 89% 36% 48% 40% 46% 40% 52% 2% 48% 28% 29% 28% 32% 50% 55% 50%
Val Demings (DEM) 48% 94% 4% 46% 45% 50% 46% 50% 41% 83% 42% 61% 66% 59% 56% 46% 35% 43%
Someone elese 7% 2% 7% 14% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% 15% 7% 11% - 12% 12% 4% 7% 5%
Don't know/Refusal 2% 2% <1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% - 4% 1% 5% 2% 1% <1% 3% 2%

As you may know, the U.S. Supreme Court recently issued a ruling overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision establishing the constitutional right to abortion in the first three months of pregnancy. Does that Supreme Court
decision make you more or less likely to vote this November, or does it not have an effect?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
More likely to vote 51% 78% 29% 44% 43% 57% 52% 49% 48% 62% 48% 59% 72% 56% 55% 49% 41% 46%
No effect 46% 20% 71% 47% 55% 39% 44% 50% 50% 24% 49% 41% 28% 33% 43% 52% 58% 50%
Less likely to vote 3% 1% - 7% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 10% 2% - - 11% 1% - 1% 1%
Don't know/Refusal 1% <1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 3% - - - - 0% - - 3%
 Would you support or oppose a law making abortion illegal in all cases in the state of Florida?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Strongly support 13% 3% 28% 8% 13% 14% 14% 13% 12% 1% 28% 10% 11% 7% 17% 13% 16% 14%
Somewhat suppert 14% 2% 26% 14% 18% 11% 15% 12% 14% 19% 14% 8% 8% 16% 16% 16% 12% 14%
Somewhat oppose 12% 4% 17% 15% 15% 10% 12% 13% 13% 3% 6% 28% 8% 10% 3% 7% 24% 14%
Strongly oppose 59% 90% 27% 62% 54% 64% 58% 62% 59% 74% 52% 54% 74% 66% 64% 63% 48% 54%
Don't know/Refusal 2% <1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% <1% - - 1% 1% 2% 1% 4%

As you may know, Donald Trump contested the results of the 2020 election through legal challenges in various states and the Supreme Court.
Who do you think won the 2020 election – that is, who received the most votes cast by eligible voters in enough states to win the election?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Joe Biden definitely won 50% 91% 9% 50% 47% 53% 45% 59% 45% 79% 42% 60% 66% 50% 57% 45% 42% 48%
Joe Biden probably won 11% 4% 13% 15% 13% 9% 11% 10% 10% 5% 16% 9% 14% 20% 10% 8% 6% 8%
Donald Trump probably won 19% 3% 39% 16% 18% 20% 21% 17% 24% 5% 12% 22% 5% 11% 13% 27% 28% 22%
Donald Trump definitely won 18% 2% 38% 14% 22% 15% 21% 14% 20% - 29% 10% 15% 11% 18% 21% 23% 19%
Don't know/Refusal 2% <1% 1% 5% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 11% 1% - - 8% 2% - <1% 2%

Do you think that much of the mainstream media is fake news or not?
[Registered voters]
Party Sex College Race/Ethnicity Age

Afr
Total Dem Rep NPA/Oth M F No Yes White Am/Black Hisp Other 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
n=1,624 n=582 n=671 n=371 n=957 n=667 n=470 n=1,133 n=1,290 n=105 n=171 n=58 n=41 n=111 n=163 n=220 n=358 n=731
Yes, fake news 56% 12% 93% 61% 60% 52% 58% 52% 58% 33% 69% 43% 49% 60% 47% 56% 64% 55%
No, not fake news 42% 84% 6% 36% 39% 45% 40% 46% 40% 59% 31% 57% 49% 40% 52% 39% 34% 42%
Don't know/Refusal 3% 4% 1% 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 2% 8% <1% - 2% 1% 1% 5% 2% 3%

Nature of the Sample

Registered voters n=1,624

Party Registration
Democrat 35%
Republican 36%
NPA/Other 30%

Sex
Male 47%
Female 53%

Race/Ethnicity
White 62%
African American/Black 13%
Hispanic/Latino 18%
Other 8%

Education
No Bachelor's Degree 66%
Bachelor's Degree 34%

Age
18-24 8%
25-34 16%
35-44 15%
45-54 15%
55-64 17%
65+ 29%

Vote 2020
Biden 43%
Trump 47%
Someone Else 3%
Didn't Vote 6%

Media Market Strata

1 = Pensacola 3%
2 = Panama City 1%
3 = Tallahassee (Not Leon County) 2%
4 = Jacksonville (Not Duval County) 3%
5 = Gainseville (Not Alachua County) <1%
6 = Orlando (Not Orange or Seminole Cnty) 11%
7 = Tampa (Not Pinellas or Hillsborough Cnty) 12%
8 = West Palm Beach (Not Palm Beach/Martin Cnty) 4%
9 = Naples (Not Collier County) 4%
10 = Broward and Monroe County 9%
11 = Miami-Dade County 12%
12 = Leon County 2%
13 = Duval County 7%
14 = Alachua County 2%
15 = Orange and Seminole County 8%
16 = Pinellas and Hillsborough County 12%
17 = Palm Beach and Martin County 7%
18 = Collier County 1%