Full Text 01
Full Text 01
Full Text 01
Keith Lynch
Master of Science Programme in Wind Power Project Management,
Department of Wind Energy, Gotland University / Hgskolan p Gotland,
Sweden.
Abstract
Technical Due Diligence (TDD) is an extensive document review process in which a
complete assessment is made of all potential risks to the realisation or successful
operation of a wind farm project. The goal of this assessment is to determine the
commercial feasibility of the proposed project.
TDD assessments are extensive undertakings, and potentially subject to the bias of the
individual reviewer. This aim of this research project is to develop a methodology to
assist in the completion of TDD reviews at the host company for this research project,
Mecal Wind Farm Services B.V., which will reduce the subjectivity of the TDD
analysis and allow for objective comparison between different projects.
A methodology was developed which assists the TDD assessment process. This
methodology uses the combined judgements of individual reviewer and project manager
to apply a weighting to the risk assessments carried out as part of the review. A
spreadsheet tool was created, based on this methodology, to assist the completion of
TDD assessments at Mecal.
The spreadsheet tool was validated by reference to historic project data at Mecal. The
output of the tool compared well with the outcome of the project, proving that the
concept and methodology of the tool is sound.
Key Words
Due diligence, Technical Due Diligence, wind farm, risk assessment.
Key Terminology
Technical Due Diligence: Technical Due Diligence (TDD) is an extensive document
review process in which a complete assessment is made of all potential risks to the
realisation or successful operation of a wind farm project. The goal of this assessment
is to determine the commercial feasibility of the proposed project.
Abbreviations
ECTS
EWEC
FMEA
HAZOP
TDD
VBA
Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge the support and assistance of the academic staff in the
Department of Wind Energy at Gotland University, particularly my thesis supervisor
Richard Koehler.
I am grateful for the assistance of Mecal Wind Farm Services; in particular Eric
Kamphues for his invitation to participate in this research and Fergal OMahony for his
assistance in the development of this research project.
Table of Contents
Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 2
Key Words ................................................................................................................................. 2
Key Terminology ....................................................................................................................... 2
Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 3
Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... 3
Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. 5
1.
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 6
2.
3.
4.
4.2
5.
6.
7.
8.
6.1
Confidentiality............................................................................................................. 8
6.2
6.3
7.2
7.3
8.2
Competitor Companies.............................................................................................. 10
8.3
9.
10.
11.
12.
12.1
General .................................................................................................................. 14
12.2
Format ................................................................................................................... 14
12.3
Definitions ............................................................................................................. 15
12.4
12.5
Scoring System...................................................................................................... 18
12.6
Outputs .................................................................................................................. 20
12.7
12.8
Limitations ............................................................................................................ 21
12.9
Benefits ................................................................................................................. 21
13.
Results ............................................................................................................................ 22
14.
Validation ....................................................................................................................... 22
15.
Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 23
References ................................................................................................................................ 24
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 24
Appendix A: Microsoft Excel Tool - Technical Notes ........................................................... 25
List of Tables
Table 1 - Numerical Score Values, Acceptable Documentation Quality (by author) ............. 18
Table 2 - Risk Categories, Acceptable Documentation Quality (by author) ........................... 18
Table 3 - Numerical Score Values, Unacceptable Documentation Quality (by author) .......... 19
Table 4 - Risk Categories, Unacceptable Documentation Quality (by author) ....................... 19
Table 5 - Points Awarded per Risk Level (by author) ............................................................. 20
1. Introduction
This document Thesis report document was prepared in partial fulfilment of the
requirements of the Thesis Module (15 ECTS) of the Master of Science Programme in
Wind Power Project Management at Gotland University (Visby, Sweden), for the
academic year 2010-2011.
This report describes the research project undertaken with and on behalf of the host
company for this project, Mecal Wind Farm Services B.V. (Enschede, The Netherlands)
and describes the scope, objectives, methodology & results of the research undertaken.
In addition, it also describes the software tools created as part of this research and
should be read in conjunction with the software User Guide submitted as part of the
Thesis.
A number of confidentiality constraints apply to this research, as described in Section 6.
2. Problem Statement
This research aims to propose and validate a methodology for conducting Technical
Due Diligence (TDD) assessments of wind farm projects, using specifically-developed
analytical tools to assist successful completion of the TDD assessment and increase the
objectivity of the results.
project and provide an assessment of the project status based on their findings. Unless
these findings and opinions are harnessed effectively and the risks quantified in as
scientific a manner as possible a TDD can be an overly subjective process, the results
of which are not necessarily repeatable or readily comparable against other projects.
4. Key Stakeholders
4.1
Gotland University
Gotland University (Hgskolan p Gotland, Visby, Sweden) is the awarding body for
the degree of Master of Science in Energy Technology with Specialisation in Wind
Power Management (60 ECTS), for which this thesis report is submitted. The
Department of Wind Energy at Gotland University is a centre of wind energy research
in the Baltic Sea region and is currently hosting a number of research programmes in
collaboration with universities and industry partners throughout the Nordic countries.
Further information on the Department and its current areas of research is available at
the University website, http://www.hgo.se/wpmaster. This research was supervised on
behalf of Gotland University by Mr Richard Koehler, Project Manager/Lecturer, Master
Programme (MSc) in Wind Power Project Management.
4.2
Mecal Wind Farm Services B.V. (hereafter referred to as Mecal) is the host company
for this research. Mecal is a medium-sized (approx 100 employees) independent
engineering company headquartered in Enschede, The Netherlands. It operates in a
number of sectors including the wind energy sector - and offers engineering expertise
and consultancy services to a global client base with main markets in Europe, Asia and
North America.
Further information is available at the company website,
http://www.mecal.eu.
This research project was made possible by the invitation of Mecal and the assistance of
a number of their key staff, particularly Mr Eric Kamphues, Business Unit Manager,
and Mr Fergal OMahony, Project Manager.
5. Scope of Work
As a Technical Due Diligence review is predominantly a risk assessment process, it was
necessary to conduct some background research to gain a basic understanding of risk
assessment.
Mecals current methodology for completing TDD assessments was reviewed. A
methodology was developed which, it is believed, will be applicable to all TDD reviews
conducted at Mecal and allow for increased confidence in the TDD review process at
Mecal. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet tool, based on this methodology, was developed
to assist the TDD review process.
This spreadsheet tool was validated by trial on a sample scope of works from one of
Mecals recent projects. This required that the output of the TDD spreadsheet tool was
compared with the findings of the review originally carried out on this project.
A User Guide was written for the spreadsheet tool, to assist Mecal in training staff on
its use.
6. Research Constraints
6.1
Confidentiality
A significant portion of the literature reviewed during this research remains the property
of Mecal or their clients and much of this information is commercially sensitive. The
author has signed a non-disclosure agreement with Mecal, to safeguard the
confidentiality of this information.
6.2
The time available for this research did not permit a detailed analysis of an actual TDD
assessment and it was therefore not possible to thoroughly examine a complete multidiscipline wind farm project of significant size. (For example, one of Mecals most
recent TDD assessments was conducted as part of a multi-company partnership, in
which Mecal spent over 300 person-days evaluating the technical content of the
project.) The available time allowed only for a brief review of one such project at
Mecal; this was carried out in order to gain an understanding of the TDD process within
the company.
6.3
To protect confidentiality, it was necessary to conduct much of the research for this
work at the offices of Mecal in Enschede, Netherlands. This time available for this
work was limited due to cost and logistics constraints.
Business Need
The key driver of this research is an identified business need. Mecal have carried out a
number of TDD reviews in recent years and have developed an expertise in the area.
However, they believe that their TDD methodology could be refined to improve its
efficiency and have identified requirements to reduce the time taken to complete TDD
reviews and to reduce the subjectivity of TDD assessments. Following in-house
reviews and client feedback, Mecal would also like to move away from detailed indepth summarising and analysis documents to a more concise format (with more
emphasis on tabular and graphical data rather than text) to make their reports more
readable and digestible for the client.
These requirements are driven by a commercial motivation namely the reduction of
costs associated with completing a TDD assessment and by an aim to improve the
quality of the end-product delivered to the client. It is believed that an increased
objectivity in the TDD process would enhance the quality of the TDD assessment by
increasing the repeatability of the TDD process and allowing for more meaningful
comparisons to be made between assessed projects.
7.2
Client Requirements
Mecal clients have requested concise, simple statements of risk much shorter than the
necessarily detailed TDD reports typically delivered by Mecal and other consultants. It
is believed that the findings of this research project - in particular the specificallydeveloped Microsoft Excel spreadsheet tool - will contribute to a more concise TDD
reporting methodology.
7.3
Personal Interest
Technical Due Diligence is a personal interest of the author and research into this area
has greatly enhanced the authors understanding of the risks and practical
considerations of business-driven wind farm project development.
8.1
The TDD review method currently employed at Mecal requires expert engineers from
each relevant discipline to review, summarise and report on project documentation
supplied by the client. This documentation typically includes drawings, specifications,
schedules, contracts, and reports under a diverse category of headings including
permitting/environmental, engineering design and construction, operation and
maintenance and wind resources (etc.). On a large project, many thousands of
individual documents will be reviewed and many thousands of hours are required to
complete this work (note the example referred to in Section 6, where Mecal expended
over 300 person-days on one TDD assessment project).
An overall report is then drawn up by the project manager, which summarises all the
individual findings of the members of the review team into one report which is then
presented to the client. This report seeks to identify all the project risks and propose
mitigation measures where appropriate. It will also make recommendations to the
client, based on the findings of the review team.
A key criticism of this method is that each individual element of a project assessment is
subject to personal or discipline bias i.e. each individual reviewer is sufficiently
expert in his/her own field to recognise individual technical risks, but these risks are not
independently weighted or adequately assessed in terms of potential real impact to the
realisation of the overall project.
It has been found through experience that many engineers conducting these reviews can
be overly conservative in identifying risks within their own disciplines (perhaps
believing that their own technical discipline is the one with the most important
ramifications to the project) and that the actual impact to the overall project of many of
the identified risks can be less than initially estimated. This can result in an overly
conservative set of recommendations being presented to the client.
8.2
Competitor Companies
Without access to TDD assessments in any company other than Mecal, it is difficult to
generalise on methods that competitors may be using for TDD appraisals (although it
seems reasonable to assume that similar methods to those at Mecal must be employed).
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It is not known if any of these competitor companies have developed any specific inhouse spreadsheet - or similar - tools to assist them with the TDD assessment process,
although it seems reasonable to speculate that they have.
A number of engineering or consultancy companies have presented papers on Technical
Due Diligence at wind energy conferences. Among them is a paper presented by
Garrad Hassan (Offshore Wind Due Diligence How Country and Life-Cycle Stage
Impacts What To Look For) at the European Wind Energy Conference (EWEC) in
Marseille, France, in 2009. This paper summarises general risks under various
headings and specific risks associated with offshore development in individual
countries. This paper does not propose or explain any TDD assessment methodology as
proposed in this research.
8.3
Additional Research
Additional research was carried out into risk assessment methods used in industry, with
a view to finding existing methods which could be applied to the Technical Due
Diligence process. This did not produce any results strictly relevant to the TDD
assessment needs at Mecal.
Standard methods of risk assessment such as Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
(FMEA) and Hazard and Operability studies (HAZOP) were briefly reviewed and
determined to be unsuitable as they focus on purely technical issues. The HAZOP
technique, which uses standard key-words and prompting questions, could potentially
be adapted to develop a comprehensive TDD assessment checklist based on a similar
strategy, although it is not relevant to the core goal of this research.
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Preliminary surveys,
Foundations,
Wind turbine technology selection,
Wind farm layout,
Electrical infrastructure and cabling,
Installation methods.
The output of this research included a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet which functions as a
checklist of items to review as part of a TDD assessment. It was developed from the
existing project database at Mecal.
This tool is not currently used in the TDD assessment process at Mecal as it does not
assist Mecal in assessing the level of risk. However, its checklist serves as a useful
starting point for the purposes of developing a new tool which can assist Mecal in
evaluating risk.
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12.2 Format
The spreadsheet tool consists of a number of worksheets, as follows:
Project Front Page in which the user enters basic data about the project and runs a
macro to select the relevant module worksheets for the project.
Project Summary - which graphically summarises the quantities and types of risks
identified during the TDD assessment and gives an overall project score based on
these risks.
Individual modules (worksheets, each representing a typical contract package or
technical discipline on a large windfarm project and containing a checklist of
items), as follows:
- Planning, Project
Management
- Permits
- Leases, Agreements
- Onshore Investigations
- Offshore Investigations
- FEED Studies
- Procurement
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Decommissioning
Certifications, QA
HSE
Insurance
Asset Management
Technical Operation
Logistics O&M
Service & Maintenance
WTGs
BOP - Foundation
BOP - Onshore Platform
BOP - Offshore Platform
BOP - Electrical
Grid Connection
Interfaces
Logistics Construction
Technical Availability
Wind Resource
Operation Insurance
CAPEX
OPEX
Operational Wind Farm
12.3 Definitions
The Microsoft Excel tool uses a number of terms which have specific meanings in this
context, as follows:
General:
USER
EXPERT
USER Inputs:
YES
NO
LOW CONSEQUENCE
ACCEPTABLE
CONSEQUENCE
UNACCEPTABLE
CONSEQUENCE
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EXPERT Inputs:
LOW IMPORTANCE
MODERATE
IMPORTANCE
CRITICAL
IMPORTANCE
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
The EXPERT is to choose from the following possible answers only (to be selected
from the drop-down menu):
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LOW IMPORTANCE
MODERATE IMPORTANCE
CRITICAL IMPORTANCE
The selected answer is the EXPERTs view on the relative importance of that particular
line item to the overall project. This view should be informed by his/her own previous
experience and the unique factors of the particular project.
Inputs by USER:
The USER is required to answer two questions for each subject line item investigated,
the first of which is:
YES
NO
LOW CONSEQUENCE
ACCEPTABLE CONSEQUENCE
UNACCEPTABLE CONSEQUENCE
In making the above judgements, the USER is responsible for assigning a weighting to
that item, which will contribute to determining the level of risk that item poses to the
project as a whole. The USER should exercise appropriate professional judgement at
all times using the Excel Tool.
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USER INPUT
EXPERT INPUT
1
12
USER
INPUT
RISK CATEGORIES,
ACCEPTABLE
DOCUMENTATION QUALITY
LOW
CONSEQUENCE
ACCEPTABLE
CONSEQUENCE
UNACCEPTABLE
CONSEQUENCE
EXPERT INPUT
LOW
IMPORTANCE
MODERATE
IMPORTANCE
CRITICAL
IMPORTANCE
LOW RISK
LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
LOW RISK
HIGH RISK
HIGH RISK
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Where the USER has determined that the scope & quality of the reviewed
documentation is inadequate (given by a NO answer to the question: Is the
Document of Acceptable Scope, Quality & Completeness?), the following score values
(Table 3) & risk categories (Table 4) apply:
USER INPUT
SCORE VALUES,
UNACCEPTABLE
DOCUMENTATION QUALITY
EXPERT INPUT
1
10
10
10
10
10
USER INPUT
RISK CATEGORIES,
UNACCEPTABLE
DOCUMENTATION QUALITY
LOW
CONSEQUENCE
ACCEPTABLE
CONSEQUENCE
UNACCEPTABLE
CONSEQUENCE
EXPERT INPUT
LOW
IMPORTANCE
MODERATE
IMPORTANCE
CRITICAL
IMPORTANCE
LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
HIGH RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
HIGH RISK
The judgement of the EXPERT is given a greater weighting than that of the USER, as
can be seen in the above tables. Note also that the absence of acceptable quality
documentation as determined by the USER - elevates the risk level, highlighting the
additional potential risk that this scenario brings to the project. This has the effect of
producing a greater number of High Risk items, which in the opinion of Mecal, is
desirable in cases where insufficient information is available to make a sound
assessment. This can also prompt Mecal to issue a request to the client for further
information for absent documentation.
A function has been developed for the spreadsheet tool which can express the risk
profile of the entire project as a single numerical value. The intent of this is to indicate,
in simple terms, the level of risk uncovered during the TDD. A Points Risk ratio has
been developed for this purpose, which is calculated from both the quantity and types of
risk uncovered during the TDD assessment.
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An arbitrary points system was established, which awards a fixed number of points to
each category of risk, as follows:
RISK LEVEL
POINTS AWARDED
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
10
The Total Points Scored for the project is calculated by multiplying the total quantity of
risks identified at each Risk Level by the corresponding points, shown in the table
above. This value is then divided by the quantity of all risk items identified in the TDD
assessment, to give the Points Risk Ratio for the project. This is, in effect, the
average risk per item and has no upper or lower restrictions on its value.
This number has no particular significance for any individual project or TDD
assessment; however, it does allow simple comparisons to be made between projects. If
this ratio was not applied, it would be impossible to compare projects using Total
Points Scored only, as the size of the project (i.e. the quantity of items reviewed)
would be the determining factor in the calculated result. The application of this ratio
will reduce the impact of differences of scale between two projects.
The Total Points Scored and Points Risk Ratio values for the project are presented on
the Project Summary page of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet tool.
12.6 Outputs
The tool produces a number of outputs. Three levels of risk are possible for any given
line item, shown on the individual module worksheets as follows:
LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
Each of these reflects the combined judgements of both the EXPERT and the USER
and is a combined view on the risk of that particular line item to the realisation of the
overall project.
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In addition, the tool produces, via the Project Summary page, a numerical and graphical
summary of the quantity and type of risks identified during the TDD assessment. It also
calculates Total Points Scored and Points Risk Ratio values for the project, which may
be used for the purposes of comparison with future TDD projects. This page can also
be used as an aid to the reporting process.
12.8 Limitations
The spreadsheet tool has a number of limitations, as follows:
12.9 Benefits
The key benefits of the spreadsheet tool are considered to be:
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13. Results
A methodology has been developed which will contribute to more objective completion
of Technical Due Diligence assessments. This methodology combines the independent
judgements (inputs) of both the project manager and the individual engineer responsible
for reviewing a specific technical discipline of the project, to produce a weighted risk
assessment.
A spreadsheet tool, based on the above methodology, was developed to assist the TDD
assessment process.
This spreadsheet tool uses weighted scoring systems to apply numerical values to the
inputs of the tool users. These scores are then summarised and presented in numerical
and graphical which can then be used as an aid to project reporting.
The spreadsheet tool has been tested on an historic project at Mecal and shown to
produce results which agree with the practical experience of that project. It should be
noted that the tool does not replace professional engineering judgement, but acts as an
aid to the Technical Due Diligence assessment process. It is therefore expected that the
tool can be reliably used as an aid to conducting future Technical Due Diligence
assessments within Mecal.
14. Validation
At early stages of development of the Technical Due Diligence assessment tool, the
concept of separate inputs by USER and EXPERT was proposed to and accepted by Mecal. Development of the tool continued based on this principle, which, it is believed,
substantially reduces the subjectivity of a TDD assessment.
Upon creation of the basic structure of the tool, a validation exercise was carried out to
prove the concept of the tool and to determine if it produced reasonable and reliable
answers.
An historic project was examined, for which Mecal had previously completed project
management services. The spreadsheet tool was used to complete a simple assessment
(similar to a TDD assessment, but on a smaller scale) on the original project
documentation, and the output was compared to the original assessments of those
projects. The output of the tool compared well with the outcome of the project, proving
that the concept and methodology of the tool is sound and that it produces reasonable
results.
Following this, minor changes to format of the tool were made and a number of
additional checklists were added. It is intended that these checklists will be developed
in Mecal on an on-going basis.
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15. Conclusions
This research sought to develop a methodology to improve on existing methods of
Technical Due Diligence assessments at Mecal Wind Farm Services B.V.
The objectives of the research have been accomplished: a new methodology has been
developed and this concept has been used to create a specifically-developed spreadsheet
tool for use at Mecal. This tool assists the completion of TDD assessment at Mecal,
will facilitate future comparison between TDD projects assessed and can assist the
reporting methodology at Mecal.
During this research, the author has learned a great deal of new information on the
development of offshore wind farm projects in general and on the process of Technical
Due Diligence in particular.
Mecal now have a functional spreadsheet tool which they can use in the completion of
TDD assessments on behalf of their clients. It is anticipated that this tool will result in a
higher quality of TDD assessment by achieving a less subjective output which
should add value to the final product delivered to the client.
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References
Sustainability & Due Diligence Guidance, World Wind Energy Agency, 2004.
Bibliography
Pea Gama, Pedro; Improvements to Offshore Wind Farm Technical Due Diligence
Assessments, University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, 2010.
Sustainability & Due Diligence Guidance, World Wind Energy Agency, 2004.
Boyle, James; Due Diligence in China, Expat-CFO Services Ltd, 2009.
Henderson, Andrew; Gleeson, Matt; Kaufmes, Udo; Jacquemin, Jerome; Morgan,
Colin; Offshore Wind Due Diligence How Country and Life-Cycle Stage Impacts
What To Look For, Garrad Hassan and Partners, 2009.
Klug, Helmut; Due Diligence oder : Wie sorgfltig kann eine Sorgfltigkeitsprfung
sein? (Due Diligence or: How can risks related to wind farm financing be
quantified?), DEWI Magazin Nr. 20, February 2002.
Twort, Alan C., Rees, J. Gordon, Civil Engineering Project Management, 4th
Edition, Butterworth Heinemann, 2004.
Smith, N.J., Managing Risk in Construction Projects, Blackwell Science, 1999.
Gerdes, Gerhardt; Tiedemann, Albrecht, Zeelenberg, Sjoerd: Case Study: European
Offshore Wind Farms A Survey for the Analysis of the Experiences and Lessons
Learnt by Developers of Offsohre Wind Farms Final Report, Deutsche
WindGuard GmbH, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH, University of Gronigen.
In addition, a number of Mecal projects were used as research material, in order to gain
an understanding of the TDD process and to facilitate development of the Microsoft
Excel TDD assessment tool.
Existing checklists at Mecal (sourced from Pea Gama, Pedro; Improvements to
Offshore Wind Farm Technical Due Diligence Assessments, University of Oldenburg,
Institute of Physics, 2010) were added to some worksheets in the TDD spreadsheet.
Due Diligence literature from selected companies:
http://www.mecal.eu/fileadmin/mecal/downloads/wind_energy_market/MECAL_D
ue_Diligence.pdf, last accessed 22-May-2011.
http://www.sgs.com/technical-duediligence.htm?serviceId=10102524&lobId=5550, last accessed 22-May-2011.
http://www.itpower.co.uk/files/pages/file/Brochures/Due%20Diligence.pdf, last
accessed 22-May-2011.
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