Airthread Valuation
Airthread Valuation
Airthread Valuation
Debt/
Value
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
28.1%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
47.0%
50.0%
Debt/
Equity
0.0%
5.3%
11.1%
17.6%
25.0%
33.3%
39.1%
53.8%
66.7%
81.8%
88.7%
100.0%
Net
Debt
69,130
79,351
5,080
8,335
3,268
Asset
Beta
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
Debt/
Value
36.8%
29.5%
19.4%
24.1%
30.7%
28.1%
Debt/
Equity
58.3%
41.9%
24.1%
31.7%
44.4%
40.1%
Equity
Beta
0.86
0.89
1.17
0.97
1.13
1.00
Asset
Beta
0.64
0.71
1.02
0.81
0.89
0.82
Equity Cost of
Beta Equity
0.82
8.33%
0.86
8.54%
0.91
8.78%
0.96
9.05%
1.02
9.35%
1.09
9.69%
1.13
9.92%
1.25 10.52%
1.36 11.05%
1.48 11.66%
1.54 11.94%
1.63 12.41%
Cost of
Debt
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
WACC
8.33%
8.28%
8.23%
8.19%
8.14%
8.09%
8.06%
8.00%
7.95%
7.90%
7.88%
7.85%
Assumptions:
Marginal Tax Rate
Debt Beta
40.0%
0.00
5.00%
4.25%
Cost of Debt
5.50%
Operating Results:
Service Revenue
Plus: Equipment Sales
Plus: Synergy Related Business Revenu
Total Revenue
Less: System Operating Expenses
Plus: Backhaul Synergy Savings
Less: Cost of Equipment Sold
Less: Selling, General & Administrative
EBITDA
Less: Depreciation & Amortization
EBIT
2008
4,194.3
314.8
0.0
4,509.1
838.9
0.0
755.5
1,803.6
1,111.1
705.2
405.9
2009
4,781.5
358.8
0.0
5,140.4
956.3
0.0
861.2
2,056.2
1,266.7
804.0
462.7
2010
5,379.2
403.7
0.0
5,782.9
1,075.8
0.0
968.9
2,313.2
1,425.0
867.4
557.6
2011
5,917.2
444.1
0.0
6,361.2
1,183.4
0.0
1,065.8
2,544.5
1,567.5
922.4
645.2
2012
6,331.4
475.2
0.0
6,806.5
1,266.3
0.0
1,140.4
2,722.6
1,677.3
952.9
724.4
243.5
705.2
25.9
631.3
291.6
277.6
804.0
19.7
719.7
342.3
334.6
867.4
20.0
867.4
314.5
387.1
922.4
18.0
970.1
321.4
434.6
952.9
13.9
1,055.0
318.6
PV Intermediate FC
269.2
291.7
247.4
233.4
213.6
8.33% 1,255.3
3,758
10 Years
12
41
284.8
2008
199.4
40.0%
79.8
2009
183.1
40.0%
73.2
2010
165.8
40.0%
66.3
2011
147.5
40.0%
59.0
2012
128.3
40.0%
51.3
75.6
65.8
56.5
47.6
39.3
#REF!
2008
243.5
705.2
25.9
631.3
291.6
2009
277.6
804.0
19.7
719.7
342.3
2010
334.6
867.4
20.0
867.4
314.5
2011
387.1
922.4
18.0
970.1
321.4
2012
434.6
952.9
13.9
1,055.0
318.6
PV of FC
1,255.3
269.2
291.7
247.4
233.4
213.6
79.8
75.6
73.2
65.8
66.3
56.5
59.0
47.6
51.3
39.3
8.33%
TV Growth Rate
2.9%
TV WACC Cash Flow
4,286.7
Value of Operating Assets
5,826.8
Value of Non-Operating Asset 1,718.6
Total Enterprise Value
7,545.4
6,316.3
Operating Results:
Service Revenue
Plus: Equipment Sales
Plus: Synergy Related Business Revenu
Total Revenue
Less: System Operating Expenses
Plus: Backhaul Synergy Savings
Less: Cost of Equipment Sold
Less: Selling, General & Administrative
EBITDA
Less: Depreciation & Amortization
EBIT
Less: Interest Expense
EBT
Less: Taxes
Net Income
Un-Levered Free Cash Flow:
NOPAT
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Changes in Working Capital
Less: Capital Expenditures
Un-Levered Free Cash Flow
2008
4,194.3
314.8
156.5
4,665.6
838.9
0.0
755.5
1,866.2
1,205.0
729.7
475.3
199.4
275.9
110.4
165.5
2009
4,781.5
358.8
268.6
5,409.0
956.3
(13.4)
861.2
2,163.6
1,441.3
846.0
595.3
183.1
412.2
164.9
247.3
2010
5,379.2
403.7
387.3
6,170.3
1,075.8
(25.8)
968.9
2,468.1
1,683.3
925.5
757.7
165.8
591.9
236.8
355.2
2011
5,917.2
444.1
569.9
6,931.2
1,183.4
(52.5)
1,065.8
2,772.5
1,962.1
1,005.0
957.0
147.5
809.5
323.8
485.7
2012
6,331.4
475.2
704.5
7,511.0
1,266.3
(76.0)
1,140.4
3,004.4
2,175.9
1,051.5
1,124.4
128.3
996.1
398.4
597.7
285.2
729.7
66.0
653.2
295.7
357.2
846.0
32.7
757.3
413.2
454.6
925.5
33.3
925.5
421.3
574.2
1,005.0
36.9
1,057.0
485.4
674.6
1,051.5
28.5
1,164.2
533.5
Operating Margins:
Service Revenue Growth
14.0%
14.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.0%
Equipment Sales/Service Revenue
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
Total Revenue Growth
18.2%
15.9%
14.1%
12.3%
8.4%
Wireless Service Gross Profit Margin
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
Equipment Sales Gross Profit
-140.0% -140.0% -140.0% -140.0% -140.0%
Selling, General & Administrative
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
EBITDA
25.8%
26.6%
27.3%
28.3%
29.0%
Depreciation & Amortization
15.6%
15.6%
15.0%
14.5%
14.0%
EBIT
10.2%
11.0%
12.3%
13.8%
15.0%
Effective Tax Rate
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
Cap-x/Revenue
14.0%
14.0%
15.0%
15.3%
15.5%
Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Marketable Securities
2007
204.5
16.4
2008
90.7
16.4
2009
87.8
16.4
2010
86.0
16.4
2011
141.1
16.4
2012
0.0
16.4
Synergy Switches:
Bus. Revenue Synergy:
Include Synergy
Exclude Synergy
1
2
Reduction in Backhaul:
Include Synergy
Exclude Synergy
1
2
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Prepaid Expenses
Deferred Taxes
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Property, Plan & Equipment
Licenses
Customer Lists
Investments in Affiliated Entities
Long Term Note Receivable
Goodwill
Other Long Term Assets
Total Assets
Liabilities & Owners' Equity:
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue & Deposits
Accrued Liabilities
Taxes Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Asset Retirement Obligation
Other Deferred Liabilities
Minority Interest
Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Owners' Equity
Beginning Cash
Plus: Un-Levered Free Cash Flow
Less: After-Tax Interest Expense
Less: Principal Payments
Ending Cash
435.5
101.0
41.6
18.6
16.2
833.8
540.0
135.0
47.8
18.6
16.2
864.6
626.1
153.9
54.9
18.6
16.2
973.8
714.2
173.1
62.3
18.6
16.2
1,086.8
802.3
190.4
69.3
18.6
16.2
1,254.2
869.4
203.7
74.7
18.6
16.2
1,198.9
2,595.1
1,482.4
15.4
157.7
4.4
491.3
31.8
5,611.9
2,518.6
1,482.4
15.4
157.7
4.4
491.3
31.8
5,566.2
2,429.9
1,482.4
15.4
157.7
4.4
491.3
31.8
5,586.7
2,429.9
1,482.4
15.4
157.7
4.4
491.3
31.8
5,699.6
2,481.8
1,482.4
15.4
157.7
4.4
491.3
31.8
5,919.1
2,594.5
1,482.4
15.4
157.7
4.4
491.3
31.8
5,976.5
260.8
143.4
59.2
43.1
97.7
604.2
342
134.7
65.8
43.1
97.7
682.9
392
154.4
75.5
43.1
97.7
762.4
443
174.6
85.4
43.1
97.7
843.7
491
193.4
94.6
43.1
97.7
919.3
527
207.6
101.5
43.1
97.7
976.6
1,002.3
554.4
126.8
84.5
3,467.6
554.4
126.8
84.5
3,161
554.4
126.8
84.5
2,838
554.4
126.8
84.5
2,496
554.4
126.8
84.5
1,898
554.4
126.8
84.5
43.4
43.4
43.4
43.4
43.4
43.4
3,196.2
5,611.9
606.4
5,566.2
853.8
5,586.7
1,208.9
5,699.6
1,694.6
5,919.1
2,292.3
5,976.5
204.5
295.7
119.7
289.9
90.7
90.7
413.2
109.8
306.3
87.8
87.8
421.3
99.5
323.6
86.0
86.0
141.1
485.4
533.5
88.5
77.0
341.8 2,496.0
141.1 (1,898.4)
2007
435.5
101.0
2008
540.0
135.0
2009
626.1
153.9
2010
714.2
173.1
2011
802.3
190.4
2012
869.4
203.7
41.6
143.4
260.8
59.2
114.6
2007
47.8
134.7
341.6
65.8
180.6
54.9
154.4
391.7
75.5
213.3
62.3
174.6
443.0
85.4
246.6
69.3
193.4
490.6
94.6
283.5
74.7
207.6
526.7
101.5
312.0
66.0
32.7
33.3
36.9
28.5
2008
41.67
154.36
1.38%
14.01
35.54
6.85
2009
41.67
154.36
1.38%
14.01
35.54
6.85
2010
41.67
154.36
1.38%
14.01
35.54
6.85
2011
41.67
154.36
1.38%
14.01
35.54
6.85
2012
41.67
154.36
1.38%
14.01
35.54
6.85
2008
285.2
729.7
66.0
653.2
295.7
2009
357.2
846.0
32.7
757.3
413.2
2010
454.6
925.5
33.3
925.5
421.3
2011
574.2
1,005.0
36.9
1,057.0
485.4
2012
674.6
1,051.5
28.5
1,164.2
533.5
PV of FC
1,666.6
273.0
352.1
331.4
352.5
357.6
79.8
75.6
73.2
65.8
66.3
56.5
59.0
47.6
51.3
39.3
8.33%
TV Growth Rate
3.4%
TV WACC Cash Flow
8,038.9
Value of Operating Assets
9,990.3
Value of Non-Operating Asset 1,718.6
Total Enterprise Value
11,708.9
###
2008
0.30
859
258
0.0506
156
2008
838.9
20.0%
167.8
0.0%
0.0
2009
0.50
885
442
0.0506
269
2010
0.70
911
638
0.0506
387
2011
1.00
939
939
0.0506
570
2012
1.20
967
1,160
0.0506
704
2009
2010
2011
2012
956.3 1,075.8 1,183.4 1,266.3
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
191.3
215.2
236.7
253.3
7.0%
12.0%
22.2%
30.0%
13.4
25.8
52.5
76.0
#REF!
Date:
1/31/2008
2/28/2008
3/31/2008
4/30/2008
5/31/2008
6/30/2008
7/31/2008
8/31/2008
9/30/2008
###
###
###
1/31/2009
2/28/2009
3/31/2009
4/30/2009
5/31/2009
6/30/2009
7/31/2009
8/31/2009
9/30/2009
###
###
###
1/31/2010
2/28/2010
3/31/2010
4/30/2010
5/31/2010
6/30/2010
7/31/2010
8/31/2010
9/30/2010
###
###
###
1/31/2011
2/28/2011
3/31/2011
4/30/2011
5/31/2011
Payment
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
Annual
Amortization
Interest Principal Balance
Period
5.50%
3,758
120
17
24
3,734
1
17
24
3,710
2
17
24
3,687
3
17
24
3,663
4
17
24
3,639
5
17
24
3,615
6
17
24
3,590
7
16
24
3,566
8
16
24
3,542
9
16
25
3,517
10
16
25
3,492
11
16
25
3,468
12
16
25
3,443
13
16
25
3,418
14
16
25
3,393
15
16
25
3,367
16
15
25
3,342
17
15
25
3,317
18
15
26
3,291
19
15
26
3,265
20
15
26
3,239
21
15
26
3,214
22
15
26
3,188
23
15
26
3,161
24
14
26
3,135
25
14
26
3,109
26
14
27
3,082
27
14
27
3,055
28
14
27
3,029
29
14
27
3,002
30
14
27
2,975
31
14
27
2,948
32
14
27
2,920
33
13
27
2,893
34
13
28
2,865
35
13
28
2,838
36
13
28
2,810
37
13
28
2,782
38
13
28
2,754
39
13
28
2,726
40
12
28
2,698
41
Date:
6/30/2011
7/31/2011
8/31/2011
9/30/2011
###
###
###
1/31/2012
2/28/2012
3/31/2012
4/30/2012
5/31/2012
6/30/2012
7/31/2012
8/31/2012
9/30/2012
###
###
###
Payment
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
2,176
Annual
Amortization
Interest Principal Balance
Period
5.50%
2,698
84
12
28
2,669
42
12
29
2,641
43
12
29
2,612
44
12
29
2,583
45
12
29
2,554
46
12
29
2,525
47
12
29
2,496
48
11
29
2,467
49
11
29
2,437
50
11
30
2,408
51
11
30
2,378
52
11
30
2,348
53
11
30
2,318
54
11
30
2,288
55
10
30
2,257
56
10
30
2,227
57
10
31
2,196
58
10
31
2,166
59
10
2,166
0
60
#REF!
2012
674.6
4,147.3
16.3%
141.1
674.6
20.9%
3.4%
#REF!