Insider Outsider Theory
Insider Outsider Theory
Insider Outsider Theory
& Wilson:
The
Accord
and Strikes
Australian
Journal of
Labour
Economics,
Vol. 8, No. 2, June 2005, pp 181 - 201
181
Abstract
This paper uses Australian micro-data to test the insider-outsider model. As part
of this, the paper also examines whether the distinction between insiders and
outsiders has more relevance for males or females. Provisional support for the theory
is found. The paper finds that males have more insider power than females. It is
argued that this represents an indirect test in support of Lindbeck and Snowerss
(1988) turnover cost version of the theory. The paper pays particular attention to
specification and estimation problems associated with the research.
1. Introduction
Insider-outsider models have been advanced in recent years to explain a
range of phenomena, principally the persistence of unemployment. This
paper provides an empirical test of this theory using Australian micro-data.
The work reported here can be seen as a contribution to the growing body
of international evidence on the topic. Moreover, to the best of my
knowledge, it represents the only attempt to test this theory with Australian
micro-data.
The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 provides a brief overview of
the insider-outsider theory. Section 3 outlines the data and methodology
employed in the analysis. Section 4 describes the key variables used, as
well as some limitations of those variables. Section 5 discusses an important
problem to do with collinearity in this study. Section 6 discusses a number
of econometric issues, including the estimation procedures employed.
Section 7 describes the sample used in the study, as well as the main sources
of missing observations. The results of the empirical analysis are presented
in section 8. Section 9 contains some concluding comments.
2. Theory
All insider-outsider models share in common the idea that insiders are
highly insulated from competition by outsiders in wage setting. Insiders
are usually employed workers; outsiders are usually the unemployed. The
main implication of this is that wage outcomes, particularly in the aftermath
of negative employment shocks, may prevent a rapid return to the preshock employment level. Three broad approaches can be identified in the
literature.
Address for correspondence: Dr Michael Dobbie, Economics Department, Macquarie
University, NSW, 2109, Australia. Email: mdobbie@efs.mq.edu.au
* I wish to thank Bill Junor, Roger Tonkin and Bruce Chapman for comments on,
and assistance with, previous research efforts that have lead to this paper. I thank
two anonymous referees for helpful comments on the paper. Naturally any remaining
errors and faults are my responsibility.
The Centre for Labour Market Research, 2005
182
See Dobbie (2003, chapter 2) for a detailed discussion of the meaning and implication
of hysteresis and persistence as used in this literature.
183
The final approach is associated with Layard et al. (1991), and identifies the
long-term unemployed as outsiders. There are several strands to this
outsider ineffectiveness hypothesis. Long-term unemployment could
result in skill atrophy, and or, demoralisation. Either or both of these will
diminish the ability of the long-term unemployed to compete in the labour
market. In addition employers may use unemployment duration as a
screening mechanism. Under this scenario employers interpret long-term
unemployment as a signal that a potential employee has already been found
wanting. All these strands of thought lead to the conclusion that the longterm unemployed have little, or no, impact on wage outcomes.
Under these conditions past employment shocks could have a persistent
impact on unemployment. This is so since the actual history of shocks to
employment determines, in part, the current duration composition of
unemployment, and hence the number of long-term unemployed in any
given pool of unemployment. The larger the proportion of total
unemployment that is long-term, all other things being equal, the more
favourable are wage setting conditions for insiders. This may in turn
generate wage outcomes that are inimical to future employment growth,
thereby making the effect of past shocks persistent. See Layard et al. (1991)
for more on this approach.
This study uses data from two sources. The first data source is the 1995
Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (AWIRS). The second
data source is unpublished Labour Force Survey data provided by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics. The AWIRS data is described and
summarised in Morehead et al. (1997). The primary task of AWIRS was
to provide a comprehensive and statistically reliable database on
workplace relations in Australia (Morehead et al., 1997, p.1).
Workplaces from the Defence industry, as well as those from the Agriculture,
Forestry and Fishing industry are not included in the survey. In addition,
workplaces with less than five employees were excluded from the survey.
AWIRS 1995 also contained a small workplace survey that collected
information on workplace characteristics for workplaces with between 519 employees. However, no information on employees at these small
workplaces was collected. As such these workplaces have been ignored in
the analysis conducted in this paper.
AWIRS 1995 is rich in information about the characteristics of the sampled
workplaces and their employees. This information enables detailed modeling
of each employees human capital and demographic characteristics.
Survey data is subject to some well-known limitations. Dobbie (2003, pp.123125) provides a detailed discussion of these, and how they impact on this
study. It is argued there that careful choice of the variables employed in this
study has reduced to a minimum any negatives associated with survey data.
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(1)
Xij = a set of employee specific human capital and job characteristics. These
include the following; potential experience, tenure at current workplace,
whether the employee is from a non-English speaking home, whether the
employee is disabled, occupation, education, whether the employee is
casual, whether the employee is on a fixed term contract. These variables
are fully defined in appendix 3 under the heading Individual Variables.
Zj = a set of variables describing the workplace at which each individual is
employed. The variables include the following; workplace size, union
density, occupational composition of the workplace, industry, the degree
of product market competition faced by the workplace, whether the
workplace operates primarily in export markets, whether the workplace
faces competition from imported goods, percentage of the workplace
workforce that is female, a measure of labour intensity, whether the
workplace is foreign or Australian owned. All these variables are fully
defined in appendix 3 under the heading Workplace Variables. Also
included in this vector are the insider-outsider proxy variables. These
variables are discussed in the next section, and are also fully described in
appendix 3 under the heading Insider-Outsider Variables.
ij = a disturbance term.
Nj is the number of observations for workplace j, and J is the number of
workplaces.
The wage equation is estimated separately for males and females. This is a
common practice in the estimation of union wage mark-ups. In addition,
estimating separate equations for males and females allows for an indirect
test of the turnover cost version of the theory. On average females have
2
185
lower labour force attachment than males, and as such, less on the job
training and experience. 3 It is therefore expected that turnover costs
associated with female employees will be lower than for males. Lower
turnover costs should be associated with less insider power, all other things
being equal.
186
187
for workers in geographically distinct regions such as Cape York and South
West Queensland. The result of this is the potential introduction of
measurement error, which could bias upwards the standard errors. Apart
from acknowledging the potential problem, there is little that can be done
about this. It is a problem imposed by the nature of the data set.7
Each specification outlined above also includes an insider proxy variable
that is drawn from the AWIRS 1995 data. This variable, called employment
change, is a dummy variable equal to one if employment change at the
workplace in the proceeding twelve months was positive, it equals zero if
employment change was zero or negative. This variable implies a strict
membership rule whereby the insider group at a workplace consists solely
of incumbent employees. It implies that, unlike the case in which the shortterm unemployed retain insider status, insider status is lost as soon as an
insider becomes unemployed. If this strict membership rule holds the
coefficient on employment change should be significant and negative. As
already noted such a strict membership rule is employed by Blanchard and
Summers (1986, 1987), and is one assumption required for hysteresis.
As noted previously, each regression also contains a large number of control
variables. These variables control for a range of individual employee and
workplace characteristics. They are, by and large, standard inclusions in
wage equations of the kind estimated in this study. Dobbie (2003, pp.132140) provides a detailed discussion of these variables, including the reasons
for their inclusion as regressors. Appendix 3 includes a description of these
variables. For efficiency of exposition these control variables are not reported
in this paper. The estimates in relation to these variables are generally as
expected. Full results are available from the author upon request.
188
and South Australia have had higher equilibrium unemployment rates than
the other states and territories, over the past two decades.
Third, cross-section results could reflect the impact of labour market
adjustment. Debelle and Vickery (1998, p.10) show that Western Australia
and Queensland enjoyed strong employment growth over a protracted
period during the 1980s and 1990s. Indeed these two states increased their
share of total employment from 9 to 10, and 14 to 18 per cent respectively
from 1981 to 1997. The other states experienced a steady decline in
employment share over this time. These employment share trends could
generate a positive wage premium associated with the need to attract labour
from states and territories with declining, to those with expanding,
employment opportunities.
These considerations generate a number of econometric issues. First regional
influences on wages which are not directly related to unemployment, but
which may be correlated with unemployment, need to be controlled for.
Failure to do this may result in omitted variables bias. The estimated
coefficients on unemployment will register the impact on earnings of
omitted but correlated regional influences, in addition to the impact of
regional unemployment.
Second, regional dummies need to be included in order to isolate the impact
of permanent and transitory aspects of unemployment on wages. This is
important since the insider-outsider mechanism clearly relates to the impact
of variations in the transitory component of unemployment on wage
formation. Card (1995) has argued that excluding regional dummies from
these kinds of wage equations involves the implicit assumption that wages
respond to these two components of local unemployment with the same
elasticity. Card shows that this assumption is invalid in the USA, and results
in the fact that USA wage curves which omit region dummies, invariably
produce low or even positive elasticities (Card, 1995, p.789).
The rationale for including regional dummies to control for regional fixed
effects in addition to unemployment is clear enough. Including 14 regional
dummies, corresponding to the 14 regions for which unemployment rates
have been defined, along with 14 regional unemployment rates would
however result in perfect collinearity. On the other hand omitting the regional
dummies may result in omitted variables bias. These issues have been dealt
with as follows in this study. Along with 14 regional unemployment rates, 8
regional dummy variables have been included, one for each state and
territory. This eliminates perfect collinearity, enabling the coefficients to be
estimated. It does not of course eliminate collinearity as such.
To gauge the impact of collinearity and omitted variables bias on the results
the following strategy has been adopted. For each model, an a priori
preferred specification is estimated. This specification includes the eight
regional dummies as defined above, along with the relevant regional
unemployment measure(s) used to proxy insider-outsider influences. This
is referred to as the a priori preferred specification since it is the specification
that is most consistent with the relevant underlying theoretical and empirical
knowledge.
189
Each time a model with regional dummy variables is estimated, it is reestimated without those regional dummy variables. This is done as an
attempt to gauge whether the results from the a priori preferred specification
are quantitatively or qualitatively affected by collinearity. If for instance,
both sets of results tell the same qualitative story, this is taken as evidence
that collinearity is not a serious problem. It is possible that the two
specifications could tell different, even conflicting stories. It may not be
possible to conclude whether the difference in the results is due to
collinearity in the a priori preferred specification, or omitted variables bias
in the specification that omits regional dummies.
In an attempt to obtain additional information a third specification is
estimated. Kennedy and Borland (2000, p.789) argue that property values
are a major source of interstate cost of living differences in Australia. Thus,
following Borland and Kennedy the third specification includes the 14
regional unemployment rates and a variable measuring real median house
prices in each state and territory. The house price data used is described in
appendix 2. This specification omits full controls for regional specific fixed
effects, but does control for one potentially major source of regional variation
in earnings.
Two arguments are offered to justify proceeding in this way. First, there is
abundant empirical evidence to support the view that individual wage
outcomes are the result of both the characteristics of individual employees,
and of the workplaces and industries in which they work. It can be argued
that earnings equations that do not control for both employee and workplace
characteristics are compromised by the omission of relevant variables.
AWIRS 1995 provides a unique opportunity with respect to Australian data,
to match the characteristics of workers with the characteristics of their
workplaces. The potential problems that collinearity might cause should
not deter this work.
Second, there exists an extensive literature on the wage curve (for example
see, Blanchflower and Oswald, 1990, 1994 and 1995). An examination of
this literature shows that sensible results can be drawn from single crosssections, notwithstanding the problems that may arise from collinearity
and omitted variables bias. The work of Winter-Ebmer (1996) provides one
example. Dobbie (2003, pp.144-146) contains a detailed review of this aspect
of the wage curve literature.
190
from the population at large. This could result from any of a number of
factors. Workers from a given workplace, for instance, could share a slightly
unique workplace culture which impacts on their productivity. Many of
these common characteristics are unlikely to be measurable, and hence
controlled for. As a result they will be registered in the error term with the
result that there will be a correlation in the errors. Greene (1991) shows
that, under the circumstances just described, the error structure is given as
follows:
ij = ij + j
i = 1,.,Nj
(2)
j = 1,..,J
This error term has two components. The first component ij varies
independently across individuals both within and across workplaces. The
second component j varies across workplaces but is constant for workers
within the same workplace. This error structure describes the random effects
model and the efficient estimator is feasible Generalised Least Squares
(Wooden, 2001; Wooden and Bora, 1999; and Greene, 1991).
Given that much of the data in AWIRS 1995 are grouped, it was expected
that heteroscedasticity could be a problem in the regressions. An
examination of residual plots, and the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test (neither
reported in this paper) indicate that this is indeed the case. The presence of
heteroscedasticity means that the standard errors from the random effects
regressions are not efficient. An estimator using a procedure such as Whites
(1980) is not available for the random effects model. In an attempt to
compensate for this, OLS regressions with the t-ratios corrected using
Whites (1980) procedure are also estimated and reported. If the results from
the OLS and random effects regressions are qualitatively similar, the
conclusion is drawn that the econometric difficulties just discussed are not
of practical importance. The results suggest that this is the case. The OLS
and random effects estimates, reported in tables 1 and 2 are quantitatively
and qualitatively very similar. It is acknowledged that this discussion of
the random effects model, the problem of heteroscedasticity and the decision
to estimate OLS regressions using Whites (1980) procedure follows Wooden
(2001) and Wooden and Bora (1999).
Measurement error also results from the fact that the employee earnings
variable reported in AWIRS 1995 is grouped into 23 categories. The usual
practice of allocating midpoints to each earnings category has been followed
in this research. The top and bottom pay categories are open-ended. They
have been closed somewhat arbitrarily. Sensitivity tests show that the
findings are not sensitive to the end points chosen.
The work of Moulton (1986) highlights another potential problem with the
estimation of equation (1). This problem relates to the fact that the
regressions include regional unemployment measures, and workplace level
variables as explanatory variables. These explanatory variables are defined
at a higher level of aggregation than the dependent variable. Moulton has
shown that in this situation the t statistics may be biased upwards. In the
191
earnings equations estimated in this paper, this will occur where the
earnings of workers in the same region share some common component of
variation that cannot be completely explained either in terms of measurable
characteristics or the rate of unemployment. In this case there will be a
positive correlation in the error term for workers in the same region
(Kennedy and Borland, 2000, p.784).
One way in which this problem can be overcome is to estimate a cell means
regression. In this estimation the dependent variable and all of the
independent variables are defined as the average values for some common
level of aggregation, e.g., in the current application the average for each of
the 14 regions. On the assumption that unobserved determinants of
individual earnings are uncorrelated across the regions this approach should
generate unbiased estimates of the standard errors. Unfortunately this
approach cannot be used in this research since the number of explanatory
variables is larger than the number of regional cells (Kennedy and Borland,
2000, p. 85).
8. Results
Tables 1 and 2 present the results for the male and female samples. In each
table there are three panels, A, B and C. These present the results for the a
priori preferred specification (panel A), the specification that omits regional
dummies (panel B), and the specification that omits regional dummies, but
which includes regional median house prices (panel C). Each table has six
columns of results. The first two columns (1A and 1B) present the OLS and
random effects estimates for the model that includes the total
unemployment rate as an outsider proxy. Columns 2A and 2B present the
OLS and random effects results for the version that includes the total
unemployment rate and the long-term unemployment proportion. Columns
3A and 3B present the results for the version of the model in which the
short-term unemployment rate appears. For ease of exposition in what
follows, only the OLS estimates will be discussed.
192
The discussion turns first to the male sample estimates reported in table 1.
The results in column 1A of panel A indicate that the coefficient of the total
unemployment rate is not significantly different from zero. The conclusion
drawn from this is that the unemployed are outsiders. None of the
coefficients on the regional dummies are significantly different from zero
in this specification. The results presented in column 1A of panel B indicate
that this conclusion that the unemployed are outsiders, is robust to the
exclusion of regional dummies. This makes it unlikely that the lack of
statistical significance of the total unemployment rate variable in the results
reported in column 1A of panel A is due to collinearity. The results reported
in column 1A of panel C attempt to partially control for the possibility of
omitted variables bias by including median house prices. Neither this
variable, nor the total unemployment rate, is significant.
The numerical magnitude of the estimated coefficients on the total
unemployment rate reported in panels A, B and C are very small at 0.012,
0.057 and 0.042 respectively. It is reasonable to conclude that in terms of
both size and significance, the results reported in column 1A of panels A, B
and C support the hypothesis that the unemployed are outsiders.
The results reported in column 2A of panel A, are from the specification
that includes the long-term unemployment proportion, the total
unemployment rate and the regional dummies. The coefficients on the longterm unemployment proportion and the total unemployment rate are signed
in line with the predictions of the insider-outsider model. Moreover, they
are statistically significant at the one and five per cent significance levels
respectively. The size of the coefficient on total unemployment increases
from 0.012 to 0.203 (see panel A, columns 1A and 2A) when the long-term
unemployment proportion is added to the model. The elasticity of wages
with respect to the long-term unemployment proportion is 0.39. An elasticity
of this magnitude implies that the outsider effect is economically, as well
as statistically significant.
The addition of the long-term unemployment proportion leads four of the
seven regional dummies to statistical significance. Overall the evidence is
that the long-term unemployed are outsiders. It is also reasonable to
conclude that the insignificance of the total unemployment rate in column
1A is not the result of collinearity between it and the regional dummies.
Rather it reflects the fact that some of these unemployed, the long-term
unemployed, are outsiders.
This conclusion receives additional support from the results reported in
column 3A of panel A. These results show that the short-term unemployed
have a significant and negative impact on hourly wages. Once again this is
consistent with the view that the short-term unemployed remain attached
to the insider group, or that they are potential substitutes for employed
insiders. The magnitude of the estimated coefficient on the short-term
unemployment rate is 0.12. This is ten times the size of the estimated
coefficient on the total unemployment rate reported in column 1A of panel
A. In addition, two of the regional dummies are significant in this regression.
193
OLS 2 A RE 2 B
OLS 3A RE 3B
Panel A
Insider-Outsider Variables
Total unemployment rate
Long-term unemployed proportion
-0.012
-0.021 -0.203* -0.307#
(-0.163) (-0.212) (-2.367) (-1.870)
0.390** 0.445*
(3.459) (2.225)
0.014
(1.071)
0.021
(1.195)
0.012
(0.890)
-0.120* -0.236*
(-2.518) (-2.189)
0.015
0.017
0.017
(0.722) (1.275) (0.689)
0.002
(0.146)
0.084
(0.893)
-0.046
(-1.391)
-0.072
(-1.524)
0.020
(0.911)
-0.033
(-1.366)
-0.011
(-0.424)
-0.005
0.003
0.002
0.012
0.028
(-0.234) (0.199) (0.104) (0.677) (0.891)
0.078
0.339** 0.386*
0.107
0.190
(0.896) (2.823) (2.283) (1.156) (1.624)
-0.033
-0.065# -0.104 -0.047
-0.120
(-0.881) (-1.896) (-1.584) (-1.518) (-1.483)
-0.0006 0.109
0.137 -0.039
-0.008
(-1.089) (1.489) (0.397) (-0.830) (-0.021)
-0.0008 0.185** 0.202*
0.054* 0.084#
(-0.034) (3.468) (2.227) (2.100) (1.734)
-0.021
-0.015 -0.007
-0.041# -0.052
(-0.818) (-0.637) (-0.187) (-1.692) (-1.153)
0.014
0.174** 0.169
-0.0004 -0.012
(0.521) (2.839) (1.638) (-0.016) (-0.233)
0.426
0.429
0.428
0.410
0.412
0.411
0.126
0.070
0.113
134.29**
132.34**
133.51**
Panel B
-0.057
-0.087
-0.061
-0.161
(-0.908) (-1.058) (-0.844) (-1.389)
0.003
0.032
(0.101) (0.588)
0.014
(1.051)
0.015
(0.897)
0.425
0.410
0.033
43.93**
0.014
0.016
(1.054) (0.820)
0.425
0.410
0.031
43.42**
Panel C
-0.042
-0.062
-0.021 -0.087
(-0.649) (-0.728) (-0.268) (-0.635)
-0.015 -0.001
(-0.418) (-0.028)
-0.026
-0.051
(-0.673) (-0.918)
0.012
0.013
(0.941) (0.789)
0.425
0.410
0.025
44.09**
0.015
(1.155)
0.028
(0.959)
0.017
(1.010)
0.042
(1.077)
0.425
0.410
0.035
43.33**
0.018
(0.886)
-0.029
-0.054
(-0.747) (-0.964)
0.015
0.017
(1.120) (0.981)
0.034
0.054
(1.064) (1.012)
0.425
0.410
0.050
42.71**
0.034
0.050
(1.214) (1.355)
0.425
0.410
0.025
43.45**
0.015
(1.161)
Notes: **, *, # indicate significance at the one, five and ten per cent levels respectively. The t-ratios
(in brackets) in the OLS regressions have been corrected for heteroscedastic error structures using
Whites (1980) procedure. Each regression reported in this table contains approximately 50 other
control variables, the coefficient estimates for which have not been reported here.
194
OLS 2 A RE 2 B
OLS 3A RE 3B
Panel A
Insider-Outsider Variables
Total unemployment rate
Long-term unemployed proportion
-0.047
-0.044
-0.131 -0.126
(-0.454) (-0.502) (-1.109) (-1.063)
0.141
0.041
(0.997) (0.386)
-0.019
-0.104
-0.018
0.004
(-1.143) (-0.694) (-1.087) (0.316)
-0.025
-0.013
(-0.370) (-0.197)
-0.019
-0.010
(-1.143) (-0.696)
0.017
0.026
(0.788) (1.431)
-0.116
-0.105
(-1.490) (-1.340)
0.015
0.007
(0.323) (0.140)
0.113
0.14
(0.860) (0.877)
-0.062* -0.044*
(-2.546) (-2.065)
-0.051# -0.029
(-1.771) (-1.100)
-0.021
-0.031
(-0.482) (-1.038)
0.354
0.324
0.001
15.71**
0.022
0.029#
(1.064) (1.680)
-0.101
-0.093
(-1.330) (-1.204)
0.008
0.001
(0.162) (0.029)
0.125
0.156
(0.943) (0.922)
-0.053# -0.039
(-1.860) (-1.465)
-0.054# -0.033
(-1.876) (-1.228)
-0.011
-0.023
(-0.304) (-0.824)
0.354
0.324
0.0007
15.79**
0.016
0.036
(0.724) (1.623)
-0.023 -0.027
(-0.192) (-0.447)
0.005
0.023
(0.115) (0.419)
0.179
0.156
(1.200) (1.048)
-0.004 -0.024
(-0.074) (-0.550)
-0.042 -0.031
(-1.481) (-1.137)
0.041
-0.021
(0.528) (-0.459)
0.355
0.324
0.0007
15.64**
Panel B
-0.051
-0.019
-0.214* -0.224**
(-0.629) (-0.256) (-2.269) (-2.672)
0.146** 0.049
(3.451) (1.248)
-0.091# -0.087
(-1.823) (-1.422)
-0.019
0.0007 -0.018
0.010
-0.017
0.007
(-1.145) (0.048) (-1.124)
(0.685) (-1.059) (0.473)
0.348
0.352
0.349
0.320
0.324
0.321
0.0046
0.001
0.064
16.49**
16.95**
16.81**
Panel C
0.015
(0.179)
-0.017
-0.144 -0.255**
(-0.228) (-1.312) (-2.720)
0.114* 0.145**
(2.419) (3.092)
-0.020
(-1.204)
0.004
-0.019
(0.314) (-1.155)
0.107** 0.034*
(2.772) (2.073)
0.351
0.323
0.097
16.71**
-0.093# -0.091
(-1.854) (-1.519)
0.002
-0.017
0.005
(0.197) (-1.058) (0.337)
0.056
0.056#
(1.296) (1.866)
0.353
0.325
0.020
16.80**
0.106** 0.078**
(2.903) (2.680)
0.352
0.324
0.026
17.03**
Notes: **, *, # indicate significance at the one, five and ten per cent levels respectively. The t-ratios
(in brackets) in the OLS regressions have been corrected for heteroscedastic error structures using
Whites (1980) procedure. Each regression reported in this table contains approximately 50 other
control variables, the coefficient estimates for which have not been reported here.
195
196
specification. On the contrary the evidence comes from the models that have
omitted the regional dummies. As a result this evidence could be subject to
omitted variables bias. There is no way to decide further on this issue.
In view of this, two alternative approaches are possible. First, the results
for the female sample could be regarded as econometrically unreliable, and
judgement regarding this aspect of the research not attempted. Second, some
tentative conclusions could be drawn on the assumption that the results
from panels B and C are accurate. If the second approach is taken, the
following conclusions from the work reported in this paper seem reasonable.
First, insider power and outsider ineffectiveness appears to be a feature of
male wage outcomes. This conclusion is drawn on the basis of results that
have the a priori preferred specification. This specification is clearly superior
to the alternatives reported in panels B and C of table 1.
Second, there is some evidence that insider-outsider considerations are a
feature of wage outcomes in the female sample. The total unemployment
rate, when entered on its own, is insignificant in all three panels. Moreover,
provided the results in panels B and C are accepted as legitimate, the longterm unemployment proportion and short-term unemployment rate act as
the insider-outsider theory predicts.
Third, the results suggest that males have more insider power than females,
all other things being equal. For males, a one per cent increase in the longterm unemployment proportion is translated into a 0.39 per cent increase
in hourly wages (see table 1, column 2A of panel A). The corresponding
figure for females is either 0.11 or 0.14, depending on which model is used
(see table 2, column 2A of panels B and C). These estimates imply that
employed males can turn an increase in the density of outsiderness into a
larger wage increase than can their employed female counterparts. This is
what would be expected if insider power is explained, either fully or
partially, by turnover costs.
9. Concluding Comments
This paper has tested the insider-outsider theory with Australian microdata. The evidence is consistent with this theory, and especially with the
idea that the long-term unemployed are outsiders in regional labour
markets. The evidence in favour of the theory was strongest in relation to
male wage outcomes. The paper uses regional unemployment rates as
proxies for insider-outsider influences. This involves the assumption that
the Australian institutional setup can support systematic regional variation
in turnover costs, and or membership rules, and or skill atrophy,
demoralisation and screening. This is a strong assumption, and it is,
therefore, prudent to conclude that the results in this paper should be seen
as providing provisional support for the insider-outsider theory.
197
Appendix 1
Regional Unemployment Rates Used in this Study
Region
Total
Unemployment
Rate
(per cent)
Short-Term
Unemployment
Rate
(per cent)
Long-Term
Unemployment
Proportion
(per cent)
9.07
10.76
10.49
9.87
8.58
10.73
11.29
8.07
9.34
7.59
13.25
11.09
8.89
8.83
3.88
4.23
3.68
4.00
4.75
4.86
3.93
2.00
4.74
2.66
5.45
2.78
4.72
4.59
34.63
40.05
38.61
34.89
21.60
26.41
35.38
43.24
22.60
20.46
41.45
44.09
21.78
17.33
NSW Met
NSW Non Met
Victoria Met
Victoria Non Met
Queensland Met
Queensland Non Met
South Australia Met
South Australia Non Met
Western Australia Met
Western Australia Non Met
Tasmania Met
Tasmania Non Met
Northern Territory
Australian Capital Territory
Appendix 2
Real Median House Prices, Capital Cities, September 1995
City
$1000s
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Canberra
Darwin
170.85
118.24
111.67
90.92
107.96
85.28
128.84
135.98
Source: Unpublished data supplied by the Real Estate Institute of Australia Ltd.
Deflated using Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index, Catalogue no.
6401.0.
198
Appendix 3
Variable definitions; Means and Standard Deviations
(Note: The first number in each cell is the mean, the number beneath is the standard
deviation)
Variable
Dependent variable
Log hourly pay
Definition
Male
Female
2.56
0.36
1.39
0.15
2.29
0.10
3.49
0.22
0.57
0.49
0.36
0.48
0.58
0.31
0.12
0.32
0.20
0.40
0.29
0.45
0.24
0.43
0.11
0.32
0.03
0.17
2.45
1.16
0.16
0.36
0.33
0.47
0.05
0.23
199
Appendix 3 (continued)
Variable definitions; Means and Standard Deviations (continued)
Variable
Definition
Non-English
Speaking home
Disabled
Occupation
Plant and machine
operators
Sales
Clerks
Tradesperson
Para-prof
Professional
Manager
Other occupation
Labourers (omitted
category)
Male
Female
5.41
4.62
4.60
7.00
18.91
21.63
11.04
13.71
9.72
21.77
23.80
25.92
19.08
23.21
7.40
12.96
0.53
0.49
5.89
4.84
4.06
9.18
7.11
11.88
13.24
19.22
33.97
37.96
9.93
19.99
17.42
24.06
8.35
17.19
0.65
0.47
22.80
21.17
55.06
24.75
20.63
11.83
7.82
7.76
0.06
0.24
0.08
0.28
16.99
11.83
5.02
5.34
0.07
0.25
0.06
0.25
0.23
0.42
0.03
0.17
0.08
0.27
0.33
0.47
0.05
0.23
0.22
0.41
0.27
0.44
0.02
0.13
0.08
0.28
0.08
0.26
0.08
0.28
0.01
0.08
0.15
0.36
0.07
0.25
0.06
0.24
0.04
0.19
0.01
0.07
0.19
0.39
200
Appendix 3 (continued)
Variable definitions; Means and Standard Deviations (continued)
Variable
Educational level
Primary education
Definition
Male
Female
0.03
0.18
0.31
0.46
0.23
0.42
0.02
0.15
0.40
0.49
0.05
0.21
0.08
0.28
0.09
0.29
0.09
0.29
0.10
0.30
0.04
0.20
0.03
0.18
0.02
0.16
0.05
0.23
0.18
0.15
0.25
0.43
0.06
0.25
0.08
0.28
246.5
139.1
0.06
0.24
0.20
0.40
203.1
137.2
0.33
0.47
0.01
0.07
0.03
0.18
0.0004
0.02
0.17
0.38
0.08
0.27
0.08
0.28
0.28
0.44
4.86
0.21
0.32
0.46
0.01
0.09
0.02
0.15
0.01
0.04
0.19
0.39
0.08
0.28
0.06
0.24
0.30
0.46
4.86
0.21
Note: Unweighted means and standard deviations for workplaces with 20 or more
employees.
201
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