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    Lecture 8 - Naturalistic Decision Making

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    Ankur Chugh
    - The document discusses intuitive decision making and naturalistic decision making. It describes how experts like fireground commanders make decisions intuitively under time pressure based on pattern recognition rather than weighing alternatives. - A framework called Recognition Primed Decision Making is presented, where experts match situations to prototypes, imagine outcomes of possible actions, and select workable rather than optimal solutions. Training can help develop these intuitive decision skills. - Both rational choice strategies and naturalistic decision making are useful but applied differently depending on factors like time pressure, uncertainty, and goal definition. Experience improves intuition which aids successful naturalistic decisions.

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    Lecture 8 - Naturalistic Decision Making

    Uploaded by

    Ankur Chugh
    111 views19 pages
    - The document discusses intuitive decision making and naturalistic decision making. It describes how experts like fireground commanders make decisions intuitively under time pressure based on pattern recognition rather than weighing alternatives. - A framework called Recognition Primed Decision Making is presented, where experts match situations to prototypes, imagine outcomes of possible actions, and select workable rather than optimal solutions. Training can help develop these intuitive decision skills. - Both rational choice strategies and naturalistic decision making are useful but applied differently depending on factors like time pressure, uncertainty, and goal definition. Experience improves intuition which aids successful naturalistic decisions.

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    Lecture 8_Naturalistic Decision Making

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    - The document discusses intuitive decision making and naturalistic decision making. It describes how experts like fireground commanders make decisions intuitively under time pressure based on pattern recognition rather than weighing alternatives. - A framework called Recognition Primed Decision Making is presented, where experts match situations to prototypes, imagine outcomes of possible actions, and select workable rather than optimal solutions. Training can help develop these intuitive decision skills. - Both rational choice strategies and naturalistic decision making are useful but applied differently depending on factors like time pressure, uncertainty, and goal definition. Experience improves intuition which aids successful naturalistic decisions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    111 views19 pages

    Lecture 8 - Naturalistic Decision Making

    Uploaded by

    Ankur Chugh
    - The document discusses intuitive decision making and naturalistic decision making. It describes how experts like fireground commanders make decisions intuitively under time pressure based on pattern recognition rather than weighing alternatives. - A framework called Recognition Primed Decision Making is presented, where experts match situations to prototypes, imagine outcomes of possible actions, and select workable rather than optimal solutions. Training can help develop these intuitive decision skills. - Both rational choice strategies and naturalistic decision making are useful but applied differently depending on factors like time pressure, uncertainty, and goal definition. Experience improves intuition which aids successful naturalistic decisions.

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    Intuitive Decision Making

    Naturalistic Decision Making

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    http://goo.gl/forms/34bSN8MWLe

    QUIZ 1
    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    Decision making
    Rational choice strategy
    Articulate the problem
    Develop and identify the set of options, choices
    Identify ways of evaluating them
    Weigh each evaluation dimension
    Rate each parameter
    Pick the option with the highest score (expected value)

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    I dont take decisions, I dont remember


    when Ive ever made a decision.
    - Fireground Commander, Gary Kleins research
    * Gary Klein, research scientist in cognitive psychology of decision making
    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    Naturalistic Decision Making


    NDM framework studies decision making in natural settings
    Focus on cognitive functions
    Situational awareness
    Sense making
    Decision making

    Observed in situations that require high levels of expertise


    Difficult to replicate in lab experiments
    Studied in field research in live settings

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD)*


    Under time pressure and uncertainty fireground commanders
    Do not generate decision options
    See a situation as an example of a prototype
    Know the typical course of action
    If expectancies of observed situation does not match
    prototypical pattern.

    Re-examine the situation in new context by feature matching,


    story building

    If conceived action does not seem workable

    Evaluate another course of action


    Use imagination, mental simulation to generate next course of
    action

    * Gary Klein
    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    Examples of RPD in action


    A fire-ground commander orders firemen to
    leave a burning building
    Infected babies
    Rescue from a crashed car
    Experience enables pattern recognition
    Experience skillful in decision making

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    Different decision strategies


    Task conditions

    RPD

    Greater time pressure

    More likely

    High experience level

    More likely

    Dynamic conditions

    More likely

    Ill-defined goals

    More likely

    Rational Choice
    Strategy

    Need for justification

    More likely

    Conflict resolution

    More likely

    Optimisation

    More likely

    Greater computational complexity

    More likely

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    How to improve decision making?


    Approaches
    Normative models: how it should be
    Training in analytical decision strategies
    Did not work well when .
    Under time pressure
    Factors are unclear or goals ill-defined

    Heuristics and biases approach


    Useful but difficult to apply in all situations
    People are unaware of biases
    Find it difficult o control or de-bias

    Naturalistic decision making


    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    Naturalistic Decision Making


    High stakes decisions are taken by experienced experts
    Reasonable courses of actions as first ones considered
    Workable solution rather than optimum choice
    Assessing situation more important than comparing alternatives
    Emphasis on context rather than technique
    Baggage screening at airports
    ATC decisions in averting mid-air collisions
    Klein: RPD framework better explains how experts make decisions
    in naturalistic settings
    They use intuition

    Intuition is fuelled by experience


    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    10

    Decision Skills Training 1

    Teaching people to think like experts

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Recognising patterns situation awareness


    Making fine perceptual discriminations
    Recognising typicality, detecting anomalies
    Mentally simulating future states (to evaluate courses of
    action)
    The overpass rescue
    Improvising
    Adapting to events
    Teaching them cues from observed phenomena and
    how to interpret them
    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    11

    Decision Skills Training 2

    Teaching people to learn like experts

    Engaging in deliberate practice goal and evaluation

    Attentional control exercises flexibly scanning situations

    Sampling alternative task strategies experience bank

    Obtaining feedback accurate, diagnostic and timely

    Reviewing prior experiences for insight and lessons

    Building mental models chess masters


    Obtaining coaching

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Reflection chess masters

    For discipline, practice schedules, feedback, spotting


    weaknesses, etc.
    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    12

    Salient points
    Rational choice
    Time pressure and
    uncertainty are less
    Optimum choice is
    important
    Conflict resolution
    Need to reconcile needs
    of different constituencies
    Data available and
    situation allows analysis

    Naturalistic decisions

    Extreme time pressure


    Lack of data
    Uncertain outcomes
    Ill-defined goals
    Difficult to compare
    alternatives

    Rational choice strategy and naturalistic decision making both necessary


    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    13

    Identifying, overcoming pitfalls


    Pitfalls are difficult to identify. Why?
    Social disapproval of negativity hinders exploration of
    causes of failure.
    Solution?
    The Pre-mortem approach (Klein)
    Imagine (a time in future) the project has failed
    Consciously, explicitly look for causes

    Ask a non-votary to undertake a study of what can go wrong


    Especially suitable for group decisions
    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    14

    HB & NDM Approaches


    HB

    NDM

    Focuses on errors
    Intuition simplifies
    decision making
    Experience does not
    assure sound
    judgement

    Study of successes
    Experience expertise
    skilled intuition
    Better judgement

    Applies well to high


    validity situation

    In low validity situation

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    15

    Role of managers a few questions


    Is a senior manager of finance good judge of the
    firms stock price / valuation?
    Are shop floor workers/supervisors the right people to
    fix an assembly problem?
    Was Rob Halls expertise one of high validity in
    predicting weather on Everest?
    Is an experienced income tax Assessment Officer
    more likely to sniff out tax evasion from a return? Is it
    because she is using RPD?
    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    16

    Read (in course outline):


    The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision
    byDaniel Kahneman,Dan Lovallo, andOlivier
    Sibony, HBR, June 2011.

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    17

    Questions?
    What kind of strategy do you use when buying a car
    or house?
    Choice of decision strategy in market entry
    problems?
    How often do managers use RPD in NDM situations?
    What type of thinking do you use in NDM?
    System 1? System 2? Or 1 & 2 together.

    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    18

    The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the


    rational mind is a faithful servant. We have
    created a society that honors the servant and
    has forgotten the gift.
    - Albert Einstein
    IIMC PGPEX 2015-16

    Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 8

    19

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